IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Lechasseur]

It isn't Safe, but it's dumb that money is going here instead of GA or TX, which are more competitive races. Also Ernst probably outruns Trump, the only way she loses is if the national environment remains toxic for Republicans, and at that point, TX is a far better target.

Agreed on GA, but money goes much further here than in TX, which probably isn't that much more competitive than IA (in part because IA still has a stronger field of Democratic primary candidates).

Yeah candidate quality still matters.

Now if Cornyn was up against a strong Democratic nominee things would be different, but if Cornyn is in serious danger of losing it means that the GOP is being destroyed nationwide.

The Democratic field in Iowa as you said is much stronger and Ernst, although currently favored to win, isn't an unbeatable titan either.

That being said, if Ernst is losing it means the Democrats have already taken back the Senate, but in this day and age, both parties could use having as many senators as possible.

[Lechasseur]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

Yeah my feeling is Franken would probably be the stronger candidate in the GE.

[Lechasseur]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

Yeah my feeling is Franken would probably be the stronger candidate in the GE.

With his profile and appearance, I don't doubt it. Greenfield strikes me as a weak nominee overall.

Agreed.

I think Franken could well be the person who beats Ernst.

I think Greenfield would have a much harder time doing that.

Ernst is by no means unbeatable, but the Democrats have to run the best candidate they can against her in order to take the seat imo.

[Lechasseur]

Mauro released an internal poll by RABA Research which shows him tied with Ernst at 42% apiece.

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/senate-race-polll-iowa-eddie-mauro-theresa-greenfield-michael-franken-joni-ernst-20200514

Also:

Specifically, the pollster asked about Greenfield’s U.S. House bid in 2018. She failed to get on the ballot because her campaign manager was charged with felony election misconduct. Voters also were asked whether general election voters might have a problem supporting Michael Franken, who has voted in Iowa only twice in 30 years and has a million-dollar home in Virginia.

In both cases, more than half of those polled said that information gave them doubts.

In Greenfield’s case, 44 percent had “serious doubts” and 23 percent had “some doubts.”

On the question of Franken’s residency, the results were 68 percent “serious” and 10 percent “some” doubts.

I've put this in the polls section, but this is effectively concern trolling by Mauro. His campaign tactics seem to have been alienating, including a weak online effort to brand himself as "the true progressive" through a few reddit accounts despite probably having a worse claim to this than anyone else in the field.

Franken is the only one with a chance of beating Greenfield.

And Greenfield is the only one with a chance of beating Ernst.

Franken strikes me as having the better shot at beating Ernst tbh