European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Lechasseur]

So are we talking about how awful this is for Les Républicains?

Yes, I actually read an article about that earlier tonight:

https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/europeennes-le-scenario-du-pire-pour-les-republicains-de-laurent-wauquiez-3900969?Echobox=1558896768&fbclid=IwAR0fjF6lr708odl5fhR-kMn7a4odhU9BeXt5rNpYSPE_74nlGU_4v4iCjx8#utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS1-3&utm_source=Facebook

[Lechasseur]

It's interesting to see that RN is the first party almost everywhere. Only a few big cities, Brittany, Pays de la Loire, the Basque Country/Béarn and the areas near the Swiss border voted LREM, but their margins there must have been huge in order to have almost tied RN in the national vote.

Some of those places, like the big cities (Paris, Lyon, Lille, Strasbourg, Bordeaux) and the Swiss border areas make total sense. Then the Béarn is Bayrou's historic fief so I guess those types of beliefs have appeal there that they wouldn't have as much in other comparable regions, I wonder why though.

Then for the Pays de la Loire and Brittany, what's interesting is until about 40 years ago that region was arguably the most conservative in France but now it's probably the most progressive. I know there was secularization and urbanization and stuff, but still, that happened elsewhere too but they didn't flip sides all of a sudden in the 1970s-1980s, I wonder what happened in that region in particular.

And then it's also interesting looking at Vendée (the Southernmost department in the Pays de la Loire), which was traditionally the most conservative area in France and was De Villiers' fief, but now only the Fontenay-le-Comte (the historic capital of Vendée) area voted RN, the rest voted LREM. I guess Vendée is still conservative but it is wealthier and has less immigration than other regions and thus explains its current voting patterns.

In the other direction, it was interesting to see that RN was the first party in Marseille and Nice, but they're the two most rightwing cities in France and have voting patterns relatively similar to the Southern US (although ofc in a two way match up LREM would still win), so that makes sense.

[Lechasseur]

And then it's also interesting looking at Vendée (the Southernmost department in the Pays de la Loire), which was traditionally the most conservative area in France and was De Villiers' fief, but now only the Fontenay-le-Comte (the historic capital of Vendée) area voted RN, the rest voted LREM. I guess Vendée is still conservative but it is wealthier and has less immigration than other regions and thus explains its current voting patterns.

Moreover the bougie-right parts of Paris and the Petite Couronne seem to have been LREM's strongest area in the whole country. Antonio's been talking to me a lot off-forum about Macronism's seduction of much of the traditional right's support base.

It's also interesting (and depressing) to see the concatenation of the post-industrial North and the right-rightist Riviera as RN's two strongest areas.

Yeah the thing is though that 10 years ago Philippe De Villiers was the Vendée council president (and I think he held that role for over 20 years, along with being one of the department's MPs/MEPs for a long time), and he endorsed Marine Le Pen at the last election so it's not exactly the same type of right you'd see in the parisian suburbs that used to dominate the Vendée. That's why it's interesting.