German Elections & Politics

[Lechasseur]

This is shaping up to be an absolutely amazing result: CSU further ahead of the Union nationally than in 2013. Seehofer should be safe, all talk about CSU's rightward turn on immigration being a wrong decision will hopefully stop which should strengthen the CSU right's position both in Berlin and in Munich, a CSU-FW coalition can be formed, the SPD has been decimated, and the left gained zilch. Bavaria and Austria never disappoint.

Yep, I agree. I'm very happy with the result too.

[Lechasseur]

Fourth ARD projection:

Very strong CSU result given that the Union is at 26% nationally. Almost certainly means that the move to the right has been successful in attracting people like me who would have gone AfD otherwise; also explains the underwhelming AfD result.

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

Right, slightly off topic, and this is a technicality, but I keep on seeing the word "Minister-Präsident" being translated as "Governor", but an elected governor is normally the product of a presidential system (although I do believe that Belgian provinces have governors, but the provinces are below the regions in Belgium). I think generally in English we just translate "Minister-Präsident" (as in the head of government of a German state or a Belgian region; I don't know if the term exists in Austria or elsewhere or not) as "Minister-President", but if you want to use a term that's used in English-speaking countries, I think a better translation would be "Premier" (I've always pronounced it as "premyer", not sure if that's the correct pronounciation or not), in other words the head of government, the Prime Minister of a sub-national parliamentary state or province. The Canadian provinces and the Australian states, for example, are lead by Premiers. In Britain; Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have a "First Minister", but the UK isn't a federal system and the expression is only used in the UK.

I'd personally just translate it as Minister-President myself. It doesn't really matter though, the most important thing is just to get the point across.

[Lechasseur]

I think quite a few voters intended to vote FDP or AfD but came home for CSU, convinced by their campaign. Hence the difference between the trendline in the pre-election polls and the result. Perhaps these people were always going to vote for the CSU - but perhaps not. And I definitely think CSU's hardline stance on immigration may have been part of what it took to have these voters come home.

Yes, I think that, too. Some people understood that by not voting CSU they would have weakened the CSU in Berlin even more and that a vote for e.g. the AfD would be interpreted by CDU/CSU along the line "See, these people cannot be reached by going to the right, so let's go to the left".

Agreed