The absentee/early vote thread

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Ralston very amused:

Jon Ralston ‏ 2minutes ago

Only one word for this demonstration of Trump's NV ground game: HUGE.

I assume that's sarcastic?

Yes, this is extremely sarcastic. Thousands will vote today alone, and despite having a full rally near polling booths, Trump was able to move a whole 15 of them to the voting booth. That's very very unimpressive and a waste of a campaign day. Clinton will have done more than that in NV during that time without a rally.

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Schale's apparently on/going on Fox. Anyone catch him, by chance?

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Seems like it won't be quite the day hoped for in Clark at least, where voting's been low. Don't have comps or breakdown yet, of course, though.

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Don't be so quickly to worry about NV, though:

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A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That's a good result indeed. Hopefully that means that the margin will be the same in Clark as yesterday, since this is the same as Washoe's yesterday. If it's D +2k in Clark or so, that's 46k in Clark, just a little underneath what Ralston called a blue Nevada.

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A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That isn't a tie, but a win for Hillary.

OK if you have to nitpick it's a win for Hillary. I suppose you like polls with decimal points to

Well, the point also is that slight wins in Washoe are a good sign state-wide, since Washoe is a little to the right of state #s recently.

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Trump is telling people not to vote by mail in Colorado:

Brilliant.

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Ralston reminds why ties in Washoe are actually wins for Clinton:

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And Bonier is another voice of "NV is basically toast" (his 44k margin doesn't include today's Clark, which isn't out yet):

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Black turnout down across the board pretty much everywhere, is nobody going to talk about this?

Not until any poll or projection of early voting shows Clinton doing anything less than killing Trump, no.

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Put a bow on NV; it's wrapped up.

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if the general assumptions about NC (strong in clinton's direction) are right, i project a disappointing NC sttp-result since alle other groups are way up and afro-americans were reaaaaaaally strong in 2012.

But that's the point. Today was the day they were expected to catch up.

Remember that the big swing in NC will be in the triangle area with Educated Whites. Don't expect the African American vote to be the sole carrier of it.

Yeah, if college-educated whites were flipping en masse (they are), Latinx were surging (they are), aaannnddd Black #s stayed like in 08/12 (they aren't), this would be a complete landslide. Instead, Black vote is being replaced by the other two and producing ~2012 numbers for Clinton so far.

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Wasserman and McDonald talk on NC's supposed "depressed D turnout":

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Like in FL, a calming reminder about the role of Unaffiliateds in deciding NC:

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That ain't what Trump supporters look like. Instead, these unaffiliateds look like FL's.

And don't think they won't play their role % wise:

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Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15s16 seconds ago
"Of the 20,269 people who voted today in Georgia, 48% are Black (11% are unknown, due to a slightly stale voter file) #soulstopolls"

Hallelujah!

That's a very encouraging number indeed. If Clark comes in positive as well, then it looks like the weekend has largely been a success.

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Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

Does that include Clark results from today?

Nope. Should be announced at 1 am EST.

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we still don't have numbers about sunday NC SttP turnout, have we?

I don't think we have the final NC numbers, no (someone correct me if I'm wrong).

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I feel the need to point out to those of you that appear to have 0 institutional knowledge: fewer REGISTERED Democrats =! fewer Democratic voters in North Carolina.

Indeed. Add the hard breaking UAFs, and you can see why Upshot is so bullish for HRC.

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Good News:

Jennifer Epstein on Twitter: Volunteers for Clinton and Dems did 70,000 shifts this weekend, more than Dems did during the same weekend in '08 and '12, per @RobbyMook

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/792918256533270528?s=09

While Trump vanned 15 voters to the polls in NV, lol. #groundgame matters.

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Two big ?'s are going to plague us all the way through, and thus make FL and NC extremely difficult:

1. What are all these new UAFs doing?

2. How big of an effect is the great Dixiecrat purge?

The answer to those two questions will decide the Southeast coast.

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Meanwhile, we can all but officially put NV in Clinton's EV #:

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Taniel ‏@Taniel  30s31 seconds ago
27% of all Colorado voters have now returned their ballots—& in this equally divided state, registered Dems have a 3.6% edge among voters.

Taniel ‏@Taniel  1m1 minute ago
Colorado's turnout rate so far (via @NickRiccardi's raw #s):
—among registered Dems: 33%
—among registered Reps: 30%
—among others: just 20%

(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  10m10 minutes ago
(((Harry Enten))) Retweeted Taniel
Give a little context here. In 2014 (a strong GOP year in CO), GOP had a 7 pt edge in early voters.

Taniel @Taniel
27% of all Colorado voters have now returned their ballots—& in this equally divided state, registered Dems have a 3.6% edge among voters.

i.e., Colorado is also finished. If Nevada and Colorado are settled, there's no road.

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Rather than McDonald's tweet, some additional clarity about CO's current situation:

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https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/793120605147164676

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The EV numbers in TX are still through the roof, and in fact haven't slowed at all:



https://twitter.com/eramshaw/status/793098394080190464

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daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Current FL active voter demos:

13.4% black
15.6% Hispanic
64% white

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of the 3.6m votes cast in FL (EIP & VBM) thru Sunday:
11.3% by blacks
13.5% by Hispanics
70.3% by whites

Good?

Not sure that's the case. FWIW, those are slightly worse for Dems in each demo compared to the 2012 exit polls (not that that's a perfect model at all).

EDIT: his followup tweets confirm that these aren't great demo numbers, really. Weird that we're running so close to 2012 party numbers, then.....

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So fixing the error dropped Clinton by .8%, but that still leaves their projection as Clinton winning by ~5. The weekend didn't move that number much (outside the error). So far so good in NC....if Cohn is right. The actual numbers on the ground without any extrapolation are just a big blur right now.