New poll hype thread

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"@Nate_Cohn  10s seconds ago


The Upshot/Siena poll of North Carolina, our last in the state, will be released tomorrow morning"


https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/790614244261785602

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Looks like it's midnight central time.

Um... isn't it 11pm?

It sure is.

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Looks like it's midnight central time.

Um... isn't it 11pm?

Isn't it midnight already in the east coast?

Ah, I see what you mean. Yeah, it definitely means now that the release was meant to be CST.

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They don't have a rating as they're quite new. 538 shifted their late September Ohio poll from C+3 to C+1 and it has a .87 weight (a PPP at the same time was weighted 1.15 for comparison).

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I think "no movement" is an equally plausible interpretation.

Yeah, I read it that way too.

Same and the few other people that have chimed in so far are implying or saying the same thing at this point.

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Last Morning Consult I can find is Oct 21st with Clinton +6 in 2- and 4-way.

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Total Tie, would be my guess.

The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.

Especially this late in the election season, and with this so quickly just falling into partisan talking points, I'm not sure there's even 6 points left to swing. Let alone for this thing.

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Hmm, so that guy on Twitter is recommending watching Morning Joe. Is the poll were good for hillary, would Joe even mention it?

What guy? Jake Sherman, who first broke that the poll is coming out, hasn't said anything on it.

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Given the hint from a few pollsters and insiders that the haven't seen much movement yet, I'd be surprised if there's much movement in this either, especially since it's been so conservative.

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Steve Kornacki ‏@SteveKornacki  12m12 minutes ago
At 4:00: We'll have the results from the NBC News/Survey Monkey poll conducted *after* Comey's announcement

Nice! These will come out just before my afternoon class.

50/44 and 46/41/7/3 in their Oct 17-23, btw.

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Their previous was this from Oct 6-9th:

44/37 Clinton in the 4-way
46/42 in the 2-way

46/44 for Feingold.

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Keep in mind Marquette has been more gop friendly than the other pollsters

Eyeballing it, looks like by about 3 points, yeah.

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Keep in mind Marquette has been more gop friendly than the other pollsters

Eyeballing it, looks like by about 3 points, yeah.

Keep in mind Marquette has been more gop friendly than the other pollsters

Eh... what?

Purely in relation to the other polls of WI released around the same time. I just eyeballed it from RCP's average.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html#polls

In no way does that mean Marquette is wrong to be ~3 points less D friendly than other polls, but they have been.

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Niiice. A big poll day, then.

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TargetSmart is in the field in Ohio, will have a poll out on Sunday/Monday.

Clinton +5, taking 25% of Reps.

In OH? You're purposely misunderstanding the claims of the FL, then. Not that I expect anything honest out of you.

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ProfessorPickles ‏@NYMETS32  
@tbonier Any more Ohio polls coming from you?
Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier  
@NYMETS32 Sunday

TargetSmart will apparently release OH poll on Sunday.

Conducted from 10/20 to 11/2 (it includes Comey-gate)

Wouldn't this poll be a bit too old for a final release? They should do it until 11/5 or something.

I had the same thought. Odd choice....maybe they only decided on it being their big finale after it was in the field...

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if our assumptions about 2016 ate wrong, the lack of polling will be a major factor.

This is very very true.

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Harry Enten just wrote there will be one more poll from NH today (besides WBUR and ARG).

Did I miss something? What pollster will it be?

Suffolk, apparently.

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@UML_CPO

Expect a new @UMassLowell @7News poll of New Hampshire voters tonight - President, Senate, Gov races #umlvotes

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As we are approaching the final poll releases for pollster, here's a reminder of 2012's final polls from pollsters we might see updates from:

Rasmussen: Romney +1
GWU/Battleground: Tie
ABC/WashPost: Obama +3
IBD/TIPP: Obama +1
CNN: Tie
Monmouth: Tie
NBC/WSJ: Obama +1
Pew: Obama +3
FOX: Tie
CBS/NYT: Obama +1

God, I always forget how crazy close it was down the line polling-wise in 2012. Those are great memories, that one was a fun one.

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I voted for NC.

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Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
We'll have a final Upshot/Siena poll of North Carolina tomorrow morning.

Very nice. Will they adjust their model based on the findings?

I'm curious about that too.

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@tbonier  1m1 minute ago

Our latest survey in Ohio exposed two seemingly conflicting truths about the race. Will be discussing with @Lawrence next hour on @MSNBC