Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/Sunflow08593559/status/1550177525489344515?s=20&t=hl1tPa...

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I'm at a loss. I absolutely abhor everything the Azovstal Militia stood for, but that doesn't mean you simply get to slaughter prisoners of war. Russia is clearly a terroristic state at this point and needs to be treated like one.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

The word fascist basically means what you want it to mean these days, in practice.
Such terms just don't serve as good indicative labels.

Disagree. Fascists are pretty easily identifiable in the modern day, it's just beneficial to claim otherwise like Russia is doing despite being the clearly fascistic side. Blemishes on Ukraine exist but they don't tarnish the wishes of the nation to be a broadly open society.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Also, I've never talked about brave Russian army, never talked about supporting genocide and for sure don't support mutilating someones' genitals. If I think that picture of this war isn't only russian dirty orcs vs brave ukrainians and that Russians are only to blame for this war that doesn't equate all things from first sentence. I actually feel pitty for people who are so blindsided and their only way of communication with someone who doesn't have same opinions are insults. When I see someone who likes John Mccain and then talks about genocide, it's actually funny.

Andriy got wounded by shrapnel despite being a non-combat soldier due to long-range shelling of the area where he was documenting war crimes for international law purposes. You finding his life "funny" would say more about you than about him even were the official Russian narrative for this war not a load of irremediably and objectively evil crap, which it is.

Maybe like implememting Minsk and not relying on west to fight for them until the last Ukrainian

Uhhh, is it Ukrainian soldiers threatening the sovereignty and freedom of Russia as a nation? No. And as for relying on the 'West', what other choices have Russian jingoistic intentions left them?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

What autumn will be like in the trenches (loud music warning):

https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1562494309126942721?s=20&t=Io_8_XWGr...
Edit: Bonus useful explanation about Ukrainian fall weather in the comments of the above post:

https://twitter.com/netsenzurnyj/status/1562547014335733760?s=20&t=Io_8_XWGr...

Historically in this region, it was the Rasputitsa of March to May that tended to stop campaign season due to "general mud."  After the Third battle of Kharkov in March 1943 fighting mostly stopped in the Ukraine region until the battle of Kursk in early July.

Once the 1943 summer campaign started in Ukraine the fighting continued until April 1944 when it came to a stop again due to Rasputitsa and exhaustion of both sides.

You posted these maps and without me looking at the dates I thought there had been a major escalation. 

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

The Russian soldier mentions he's been injured in the arms and a leg by shrapnel, but can't go to the field hospital because it's full with 1,500 people. Instead, the men in his unit have resorted to injecting themselves with painkillers to keep going.

This is the first one of these intercepted calls released by Ukrainian intelligence where one of the Russian soldiers starts to cry.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1569451673260806145?s=20&t=oyi4hbGf...

Cry and die, b****. But not in that order.

Yeah. You almost feel sorry for a lot of these young conscripts ofc, many of them are simply cannon fodder for the baseless ambitions of a dying old man. That being said at this point in the war I don't think any Russian soldier who isn't actively attempting to desert can claim innocence... Not after everything that has happened.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Crazy thought. What would it take to shoot down GLONASS?

While a few countries operate anti-satellite weapons AFAIK they've only ever successfully shot down satellites operating in near-earth orbit such as around 1,000km maximum. GPS and GLONASS both operate almost 19,000km away from the earth so unless someone has been working on essentially space-missiles unbeknownst to us, then it'd be pretty difficult.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Don't believe this has yet been posted on this thread, but apologies in advance if I somehow missed it.

Russia is clearly starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel now if they are relocating a significant number of additional soldiers from a volatile Ex-Soviet border region...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570420732278210561?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc72eTY...

And yet the soldiers they have in Transnistria that are closest at hand apparently are to remain in place. 

When does Putin become desperate enough to make a push from that direction I wonder?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62965993

What’re the chances this is genuinely true considering the source?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1572244681899249666?s=20&t=lm5vVnZ7...

North Korea margins.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

Eww. Just to be clear, while I stand with the Ukrainians, the disgusting azov soldiers are NOT hero’s in the slightest. They should’ve been left to die in captivity imo.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

Eww. Just to be clear, while I stand with the Ukrainians, the disgusting azov soldiers are NOT hero’s in the slightest. They should’ve been left to die in captivity imo.

Not every Azov member is a Nazi, although some undoubtedly are. It is a specific problem with this regiment, although the overall situation had also improved in recent years. The situation is complex and it is probably difficult to separate the "bad" apples from the good ones.

The leaders of Azov are literally ALL members of a far-right ‘third position’ ie fascist party. Likewise, Azov itself was founded out of the ‘ultra’ football hooliganism movement which /IS/ heavily influenced by far-right and fascists ideologies as well. Maybe there are members who claim otherwise but the history and ethos of Azovstal is crystal clear... And I have zero sympathy for any members of a fascist organization. Let them rot.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1573337663561777155

The Russian army is raping, pillaging and murdering civilians en masse like the Mongol horde. Russia is a terrorist state like ISIS or Al Qaeda. You don't negotiate with terrorists, you defeat them.

Ofc this math changes when those terrorists have nuclear weapons, sadly.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

gotta hope some of these "conscripts" aka slaves for vlad the demon go full revolt on the russkie govt kidnappers coming to take them to this insane war

Even if it doesn't happen during the war... Imagine all these angry conscripts coming back to their home towns and regions...Likely unpaid by a faltering government that's likely traumatized them and their families.

Ooof. Vlad may have just dug his own grave.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?   

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

The pipeline being blown up does nothing but assist US designs. Only a small number of people are able to sabotage the pipeline; presently, everything points to America doing this and not Russia.

The Russians, if they were to sabotage the pipeline, would most likely do so after the winter was over, not now. There is a method to their madness.

NS1 has been shut down and NS2 was incomplete. They aren't valuable to Russia anymore.

They in fact were. They had long-term value and gave the Russians more avenues to act. The blowing up of these pipelines corners Russia still further.

My brother, most people here are not critical thinkers when it comes to "their side".

So not only is the UA claiming responsibility (high level officials), but Poles are also thanking the US for the sabotage. To top it all off, this is very bad for Russia, as now people can't protest for NS2 to be opened when they start sliding into poverty due to insane prices. In essence, this means Europe can't negotiate with Russia even if it wanted to now.

We need to stop trying lol

Exactly  It's seems pretty obvious that a NATO Partner would blow-up the pipeline.  It had been a geopolitical weakness for European Leaders that were expressing their willingness to endlessly deepen the economic struggles of their people for as long as Ukraine needed support.  The action clearly solves the problem, and blaming Russia to reaffirm the narrative.  The timing of the event with the referendums is also a bit suspicious.  

And I'm not even trying. Isn't it just fun to see people climb to new levels of absurdity in order to justify their rationale for believing the Russians are automatically responsible for every unfortunate, awful, or controversial event. The media and Ukrainians tried blaming Russians for shelling their own positions at the Zap Power Plant for over month, and somehow members thought that was more realistic than the Ukrainians shelling it. Then the Ukrainians admitted to shelling the NUCLEAR plant, because Russians were firing artillery from nearby positions.  At what point does one stop reaching for new fantasies to justify a single falsehood?

It just doesn't strike me as particularly realistic that "a NATO partner" would blow up the pipeline, simply for the reason that you would need to successfully keep that a secret for all eternity because if it ever came out it could threaten the very existence of the alliance. That seems like a very high risk operation, a gamble that could potentially backfire tremendously. That wouldn't strike me as a particularly sound decision. Actually, it would be in Russia's best interest if a "NATO partner" blew up the pipeline and then someone (maybe Russia itself) makes it public.

All in all, that just doesn't seem like a thing that happens in the real world.

You really don't think it happens?  Gulf of Tonkin?  Reichstag Fire?  It's always in a country's interest to blame their enemy.  It's in the US, Germany and Ukrainian interest to blame Russia, and vice versa.  Blaming another country for an attack you committed isn't a new phenomenon. Russia had no other interest in attacking the pipeline, because they could accomplish the same goal by shutting it down.  And how would they have pulled off the attack totally unnoticed despite the pipeline sitting between Skane and Mecklenburg.  They did see a US Battleship in the area.  https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/damage-nord-stream-pipelines-unprecedented-may-have-been-sabotaged

There have be been huge protests in Germany calling for the opening of the Nordstream. The US promised to shut down the pipeline if Russia invaded, and it was our national international interest to stop it.  The US wants to sell Natural Gas, and the price finally makes sense. Poland was so interested that they celebrated the attack. Ukraine had been researching ways to take it down.  Every member has an interest in stopping Russia from negotiating. All parties had leaders and parties with political interest, and their concerns about upcoming elections were evident given the results in Italy and Sweden.  
https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/huge-protest-german-citizens-demand-end-to-sanctions-on-russia/

Honestly, how would the US know about the attack?  It was the US.  There's no reason the Russians would blow-up their own assets.  That would be like accusing Bush of 9/11.

Well. Case closed y'all. Does anyone have contact info for the United Nations?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I believe Biden mused that if Russia uses nukes, one possibility is to cut Russia off from the world economy. What does that mean? Cutting off Russia's gas and oil exports? That would entail severing oil pipeline to China. Whatever it means, how practical is it, absent raining destruction itself? Yes, I understand, thanks in part to this thread, that Putin using nukes is a very remote possibility.

China’s reaction in this scenario is the ultimate wildcard. It was clear at the Central Asia summit earlier this week that Xi is extremely displeased with Putin for ruining the “kinder, gentler dictatorship” image he’s been trying to project to the international community. His support for Russia will be completely up in the air if nukes are used.

I'd say a 60's USSR-PRC type split is entirely possible in such a scenario. Of course Russia will be left a backwater rump state with nukes... So it's arguable whether that scenario benefits anyone in the end. At least not without tremendous hardship and grief.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) conscripts conveniently remembering how to speak Ukrainian after being (as they claim) abandoned by the Russians and captured by Ukrainian forces.

https://twitter.com/aftertwentea/status/1577026766580744192?s=20&t=VC1_L4tya...

Okay, to be fair, isn't it possible a lot of these young men really were forcibly conscripted at the end of a gun by the Russian forces? I mean, even more so than Russian conscripts... It seemed like RU for all their rhetoric about invading to 'protect the Donbas' wasn't too concerned about also raping it dry of resources and young people.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1578793441517273089

This is Russia we're talking about, the country of 'little green men' in Crimea. So actually yes, I wouldn't put any of that past them, although Kim is also equating wholly different scenarios in order to try and make it seem like he's making a good point... Which he isn't. I doubt the Ruskies are behind this bridge incident but they're almost certainly behind the pipelines...

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

U.S. States That Wish to Join Russia Will Be Considered, Says Duma Member

Hahaha, oh wait, they're serious?

Let me laugh even harder.

HAHAHAHHA.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Russian fronts receiving orders to stop offensive ops temporarily due to extremely poor morale and desertion rates.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1580413345341276161
Bakhmut may see a short reprieve from Russia's hordes in this case.

Yeah, this makes me somewhat more sympathetic to the Russian conscripts. It isn't like choosing not to fight was an option, so refusing orders is about the best thing any individual Russian soldier can do right now if they recognize the futility and immoral nature of their cause.

Ukraine needs to keep treating conscripts with humanitarian care to encourage more to defect; and publicize a general amnesty for anyone who defects. It's vastly clear at this point that the majority of Russian soldiers are being whipped to fight by their ring leader, Putin, and we need to offer them a better path.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Aren't there likely many explosives and ammunitions in the area? I'd say everyone chills until more details come out.

And I say this as someone who believes we should respond firmly and ferociously if it is confirmed that the Ruskies actually did bomb NATO territory.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Watch Russian apologists try and claim this is somehow a sign of Putin 'being right' about Ukraine or something, without a thought in the world that if their orcs weren't slaughtering innocent civilians by the thousands and turning an otherwise peaceful country into a war zone... There wouldn't be any missiles or active warfare going on in the region.

Even if Ukraine accidentally fired it, and it's a tragedy for any civilians to lose their lives, it's still ultimately Russia's fault. Make no mistake.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1593351982516867072?t=mWIs2Z8pMOAcb4A8ikAi-w&...
What a dumb racist person. She needs to be nowhere near the Congress. I wonder why I missed that immigrants came to US on tanksx killed tens of thousands of innocent civillians, destroyed infrastructure and wiped out of the earth hundreds of cities and villages

Indeed, almost every single study that I've seen has said that immigrants are a net boon to our economic wellbeing. This is a whole new level of bigotry and also just 'WTF' for MTG, up there with Jewish Space lasers. If the GOP had any morals or values whatsoever left in 2022, which we all know they absolutely don't, she would be expelled from the house caucus.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Even though I don't post/check here daily, like it seems we all were doing when the conflict first started, and I don't see an issue with that because we ultimately have to continue living our lives even in the midst of grave tragedies such as this, I do check it every few days and will always continue to show solidarity with the Ukrainian people in the ways I can and care immensely for their struggle.

Thank you to NOVA, Virginia, Storr and all the other regular contributors to this thread, keeping us updated and abreast of new developments ~ Your efforts are appreciated!

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1604543593707982850?s=20&t=HZDgT1KpApj...

Woah, brave lady. This needs to be said more often by figures of importance in Russian society who oppose Putin; most importantly to reinforce it in the Russian publics mind. There should be no blanket nor easy amnesty after this war; not without real acknowledgement from figures of importance, substantial efforts towards reconciliation and reparative justice with Ukraine and a clear groundswell of remorse and change among the Russian public with a clear break from Putinism, a'la Germany and Germans after 1945.

Russia has dug its own grave as far as its place in the brotherhood of nations, and while I don't believe any group of peoples should be written off as irredeemable... There will need to be systemic change for it to be welcomed back, at least from my perspective.