Quite a few. Kaptur and MGP go down for sure.
I think MGP is in an extremely competitive race and probably the most vulnerable Democrat (incumbent or open seat outside NC). However, right now, I think she narrowly hangs on due to her opponent being an exceptionally weak retread. She’s probably gone once Republicans nominate someone besides Joe Kent though.
I strongly disagree on Kaptur. The Republicans have a decidedly meh candidate who is best known for blowing his state house Speaker bid in truly spectacular fashion when it should have been a cakewalk for him. The Republican nominee wasn’t even supposed to be a candidate, but jumped in at the last minute due a leaked recording of the GOP’s preferred recruit criticizing Trump).
Kaptur’s 2022 margin was inflated due to Majewski’s scandal, but in hindsight, she would’ve won even without it. She ran a strong campaign and is extremely popular in Toledo and guaranteed to significantly over-preform Biden (and probably Brown) throughout the district (which Brown will quite likely carry, although Biden probably won’t).
I think folks are underestimating her and that this race is currently Lean D (albeit right on the border between Lean and Tilt). Ohio’s House seats won’t be nearly as competitive as in 2022. Landsman is Safe D and Sykes is Tilt D (but much closer to Lean D than Tilt R).
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