Could Texas elect a Joe Manchin type Democrat

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Someone like Manchin (i.e. a ConservaDem trying desperately to out-Republican the Republicans) would underperform badly.  So would Cueller (a corrupt and scandal-ridden Congressman from the wrong part of the state who is out of touch with the Democratic mainstream in his state and thoroughly despised outside his base).  

I think anyone answering “yes” to OP’s question fundamentally misunderstands the current party coalitions in Texas, as well as what a Democratic path to statewide victory will look like when it next happens.  The rural areas are long gone; that early-to-mid 2000s ConservaDem “blame other Democrats first, second, and third” garbage isn’t what it’s about anymore and Manchin is the personification of that except that he’s also a corporate shill who lacks the populist streak some of these guys had.

As for the Rio Grande Valley, yes, you want to stop the bleeding.  However, we have two datapoints.  The 2020 cycle suggested a major trend.  The 2022 cycle suggested the bleeding here has more or less stopped.  Either way, the gains in the metros/suburbs easily more than wipe out any loses here in statewide races.  The bleeding here is more of a problem in congressional and state legislative races.  

The Democrats need a solid center-left, suburbia-friendly candidate who can make even bigger strides in the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metro and turbo-charge Harris County Democratic turnout (which hasn’t been what it needs to be and is currently the single biggest obstacle to a statewide Democratic victory in Texas), and get the reliably massive Travis County turnout while making even greater inroads in places like Bell and Williamson counties.  

I think Lizzie Pennell Fletcher is currently the best candidate Democrats could run here, but she’s much better off waiting until 2030 to take on Ted Cruz.  As it stands, the 2024 Senate race is Lean R.  Allred is a strong recruit, but I don’t think he’s the right guy to crack the code in Texas and it may still be too early.