Which governorship are Republicans more likely to win?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kentucky, especially if Robinson is the nominee (in which case NC is no worse than Lean D and much closer to Likely D than Tilt D; I’d go so far as to say it is Likely D with Robinson whereas it is Tilt D without him).

Kentucky is Tilt D, but much closer to Tilt R than Lean D.  Beshear has the edge, but simply by virtue of facing a Republican who isn’t a garbage-tier candidate in Kentucky, he will always be fighting against some extremely strong tides to the point that one misstep or a moderate shift in the national environment could easily cost him the race.

Stein will likely face Robinson (who is basically the Mastriano of this cycle) and I imagine Stein will win by something like 7-10 points simply because of how polarized NC is and it being a Presidential election year.  That said, I could easily imagine a scenario where Robinson loses by as much as 15-16%, but 7-10% is more likely imo. 

If it’s not Robinson, Walker and Folwell strike me as rather unimpressive in a bland “meh” sort of way.  They’d lose by less (especially Folwell), but I still think Stein would still have the advantage and I don’t see either of them even forcing a runoff, much less winning the Republican nomination.