Nevada Senate 2024 - Brown vs Marchant

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

lol

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1653490649482641408?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Tilt D -> Likely D

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rosen ran a near-perfect campaign in 2018 that was largely overlooked/taken for granted, as highly competent upper-middle aged women candidates tend to be, due in no small part to the fact that the campaign did not actively try to make its candidate a political celebrity like many Democratic campaigns that year did.

If she does the same this cycle, she's fine so long as the party doesn't collapse nationwide.

She seems really good at knowing the issues of her state and just coming across as normal - not a career politician - not a political celebrity - doesn't even crutch on her own identity. Nevada is a state where sticking to certain issues for Dems, particularly around abortion, lgbtq rights, healthcare, ect can be very powerful. Opinion polling on these issues would make you think Nevada is as deep blue as WA or CA, but there are other factors that keep the state closer. My guess is assuming no major scandals she outruns Biden by a point or two, but there is def a risk of Biden losing Nevada so she’s not safe

Tilt or Lean D to start.

Likely D at worst