2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The TX Primary was a very big Night for Donald Trump at the Congressional & State Level. Correct me if I am wrong but every Candidate he backed WON!

Paxton is in a runoff and most of them, like Abbott, were safe to win the primary no matter what. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Based on what's out I'd bet on Dolan honestly.

Isnt Hamilton supposed to be Vance's area

No, Hamilton is Cincinnati.  Vance is from Butler County (to the north) the way Hillary Clinton is "from" Arkansas.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He's probably right, but this seems premature

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Dolan's vote was early-heavy. Now trailing big in Dayton. I expect his small Cincinnati lead will evaporate similarly. A few more big Vance dumps like this and Wasserman will be confirmed. Looks like he's going to break 30%.

Well, it depends on what parts of HamCo and MontCo are out.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

More like Budd was the Trump candidate with Trump’s support and McCrory was a has-been who also wanted to be the Trump candidate

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

ngl i have a very strong distaste for Erica Smith even though she’s the “progressive” in the race. not exactly upset that she lost.

She was a DINO in the legislature IIRC

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I should also note that Schrader was already an under-performer to begin with even before he was doing stuff like calling Trump’s second impeachment “a lynching” and voting against BBB.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

Only far left radicals and those you Personaly recognize as "Democrats" deserve to be called this??? Interesting approach....

Well, yes. But if I were to romanticize about it, at least half the party wouldn't be "real Democrats". I'm talking about the actual priorities of the Democrats' agenda.

Build Back Better? He helped water it down.

Codify Roe? Against that.

Marijuana decrim? Nope.

PRO Act? Nah.

He's not as egregious as Schrader, but this guy sucks. The anti-leftists argue like he's Jared Golden! On an objective level, looking at his record, Cuellar is not a Democrat because he nearly uniquely does not support Democratic policies.

He doesn't support LIBERAL Democratic policies. He is a relatively conservative (only relatively - no comparison with really conservative Democrats of the past) Democrat. You equate "being Democrat" with "being very liberal" or even "radical". Probably - millions of Democrats will beg to differ...

Silence, Republican!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The AP has finally called CA-22 Slot 2 for the Incumbent David G. Valadao!
https://apnews.com/article/california-donald-trump-congress-david-valadao-government-and-politics-de9f2688e0f82ec44c71ecb3dfe83a83

Valadao thus far I believe is the only Republican Incumbent Congressman who managed to survive his Impeachment Vote.

Ironically, I actually think there’s a very real chance Valadao loses the GE for completely unrelated reasons.  The new district definitely contains less of the types of areas where Valadao traditionally over-performed most and IIRC also contains much more of the types of areas where Rudy Salas has the greatest appeal.  

For that matter, Valadao’s performance in the new district’s Republican base against some extremely weak primary competition.  His main Republican opponent was an unheralded some dude who carpetbagged to NM to run for Congress two years ago and then carpetbagged from there to run here in 2022 IIRC and received little backing or attention from national Trumpists.  In fact, I don’t even think Trump remembers who Valadao is tbh.  

Under the circumstances, Valadao’s performance among in reliably conservative Kings County was pathetic and it’s clear that he’d have lost to an even semi-competent MAGA challenger.  Even if he were just facing Salas and the third place finisher instead of also facing a second weak Republican challenger, he’d have likely come in third.  There is definitely a lack of local Republican enthusiasm for Valadao, at least among Kings County Republicans.

By contrast, Salas turned in a solid performance in the all Party primary given that his 45.4% is almost certainly a significantly lower vote share than he will get in November barring some unforeseeable scandal or what-have-you (at worst, it’s lower than Salas’ floor in the GE).  Historically speaking, as a rule Democratic challengers and open seat candidates (in competitive races) tend to dramatically underperform in the all-party primary compared to November, including in both Democratic and Republican wave years.  This has been true in Hispanic Central Valley districts, affluent Orange County seats, and everywhere in between.  Republicans have often tried to weaponize this,* with mixed results.  

This is a seat that should be on the watch list of seats that could very well buck the CW even with a Republican wave.  The only thing that really gives me pause here (and might be enough to save Valadao in this environment) is that while Rio Grande Hispanics are zooming rightward and there is evidence of at least some sort of rightward shift nationally among Hispanics (albeit a much, much smaller one than in the RGV which seems to be its own regionally idiosyncratic phenomenon), we don’t really know yet how much of it was driven nationally by low-propensity minority voters who actually showed up in 2020 being much more Trump-friendly than their respective groups as a whole.  

Ultimately, while Valadao could certainly hang on, I actually have this race at tossup Tilt D (although that’s only b/c I don’t do the “pure tossup” cop out in my predictions, same with how I have Slotkin’s race at Tilt R even though it’s basically a coin flip).  I will say that Salas would be wise to focus on healthcare, social safety net economic programs, etc rather than the more social-issue focused message I suspect national Democrats will be going with after yesterday’s events**, this isn’t the sort of place where the latter is likely to be a winning strategy.

*successfully boxing Dems out of the GE in CA-31 in 2012, CA-25 in 2014, and nearly doing so in CA-31 in 2014, CA-10 in 2018, CA-39 in 2018, CA-48 in 2018).  

**That said, I do think Roe being overturned will hurt Republicans a lot in the midterms, wave or no wave.  As someone else noted, the fact that even MTG and Marsha Blackburn were initially trying to be pretty circumspect/non-inflammatory (by their standards) in how they talked about the Dobbs decision really tells you all you need to know.  I remember reading a while back that polling generally showed ~20% of Trump voters in most Midwestern and Rust Belt states were pro-choice.  

We’re even starting to see articles pop up about how Trump is privately telling folks he thinks this will hurt both him and Republicans in general.  And even when the draft opinion leaked, folks like McConnell were clearly trying to downplay this as an issue.  This is a fight Republicans are clearly afraid of having and I suspect the reason is that their own internal polling consistently shows that this is not only a losing issue for them, but one that actually costs them a significant amount of support from folks who would’ve otherwise voted Republican, but I digress

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It’s a shame Danny Davis managed to hang on.  He has ties to the Moonies and the district could probably do a lot better.

EDIT: also:

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

Why do you assume he has no crossover appeal? He supports BIF, is pro-choice and iirc he refused to say whether he voted for Trump or not.

First, let me say that I was kinda dismissive in my response to your post in a way that wasn’t very nice, so I apologize for that.  Here is why I think O’Dea has no chance.  First, Colorado was already a very anti-Trump leftward-trending blue state where Republicans can still win, but will face a very uphill climb statewide even in a good year.  While VA isn’t a terrible comparison, I actually think Republicans generally face steeper odds statewide in Colorado.  

Now O’Dea is trying to build the right profile here and I do think he’ll do better than he “should” on paper.  He may even keep things to about ~5%, but I don’t think he has any chance of actually beating Bennet and that’s what I base my rating on.  Moreover, O’Dea is attempting to walk an extremely difficult tightrope and it’s at least as likely that he actually underperforms due to pissing off the extremely SoCon Republican base.  

However, the biggest blow to O’Dea’s chances is Dobbs.  Colorado is exactly the type of blue state where Dobbs is likely to cripple Republicans efforts to eek out a wave-driven statewide win or two on Democratic turf.  O’Dea can say whatever he wants about abortion, but no pro-choice voters are gonna believe him when he says that he opposes an abortion ban.  Fairly or unfairly, the R next to his name neutralizes any assurances O’Dea might provide.  

Plus, he’s going about his appeals to center-left independents and persuadable Democratic voters the wrong way in terms of his language.  For example, promising to be the “Joe Manchin of the Republicans” is dumb b/c you’ll annoy Republicans and most non-Republicans (assuming they even know who Manchin is) hate Manchin.  To the extent anyone knows who he’s talking about, it’s gonna be a strike against him.

As for supporting BIF, rightly or wrongly, most voters in general are not and were not particularly invested in the version of that bill.  It got stripped of the stuff that was really popular like negotiating drug prices, keeping down Obamacare subsidies, extending the child tax credit, universal pre-K, and Medicaid expansion.  Given the state he’s running in, O’Dea needs to convince voters that he is a socially liberal; fiscally center-right #ModerateHero  But that’s just to have any chance and unproven assurances you’d be a moderate simply don’t cut it in a post-Dobbs world.  And unlike Sununu, O’Dea lacks a public office platform where he can engage in virtue signaling to convince weary center-left voters he’ll put his money where his mouth is.  

Additionally, Trump is just as much of an anathema to suburbia as ever and you need to keep the down Democratic margins there in a big way to win in Colorado statewide as a Republican.  Unlike Udall, Bennet isn’t under constant attack from hostile local media outlets and Bennet clearly has not been asleep at the wheel.  

Now you may say spending money to boost Hanks shows Democrats feared O’Dea to which I say that in a rough environment, why not try to help make sure the other side nominates its weakest candidate if there is an opening?  Even in a race that seems pretty safe, weird things happen in big waves and it’s just one less thing you have to keep an eye on.  It merely shows Democrats thought Hanks was the weaker candidate, not that they feared O’Dea.  And unlike Hickenlooper, Bennet doesn’t really have any glaring weaknesses that might cause him to underperform in the right (or wrong, depending on your perspective) environment.

Finally, no one has really made the case for why hardline anti-Trump, socially liberal center-left voters in suburbia would back a Republican who says “no, but…but…but guys, I promise I really am pro-choice…well…mostly pro-choice…pro-life with exceptions, but you can totally trust me” over a Democratic Senator with an actual pro-choice record and who is generally a good fit for his state.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’m glad the abortion amendment failed, but it really sucks that Levin lost

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Meijer has to work at the grocery store next year.

And where will Gibbs work? Only - don't tell me, that in US House of Representatives...

What was Gibbs doing before this?

He worked in the Trump administration and he was a software engineer at some point.

Though I doubt he'll be a congressman.

He's kind of a goofy nerd but it's not like this is Valadao losing. He still has a very good shot.

The race is Lean D (much closer to Likely than Tilt).  Gibbs has a narrow path to victory and if there’s some major unforeseeable scandal with Schoten/the environment gets even worse for Democrats, then he might win in 2022 (although even then, he’d likely be DOA in 2024).  However, it’s a very narrow path and the abortion referendum may well be the final nail in the coffin.  

I mean, Gibbs could theoretically win, but it is highly unlikely and he certainly doesn’t have a “very good shot.”  The margin will only be like 5% - 6% due to downballot Republican strength in the area (although even that will likely only go so far when the nominee is a Trumpist like Gibbs), but this is not a Trumpy district at all and it is pretty hard to imagine a scenario where Gibbs actually wins without Schoten screwing up in a big way.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The strangest result from AZ is Cooper winning the AZ04 GOP nod. Probably moves it from potential tilt D more to lean or likely D for Stanton…

Honestly, I’d say it probably goes from Lean D (closer to Tilt than Likely) -> Likely D (closer to Safe than Lean)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but DDHQ projected that Dan Newhouse will make the top two. Matt Larkin also looks to be the likely GOP candidate in WA-08.

What a bunch of idiots. Dunn would have not only been favored to win in 2022, but he could actually have been able to hold it in 2024.

Tilt R -> Lean D (albeit much closer to Tilt than Likely)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hopefully Gray gets obliterated.  She sounds like the next Gottheimer.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We might have some surprises for Alaska I believe

Is there a real chance that Peltola actually comes out on top here?

There's an outside chance.  I would be surprised if it happened, but it wouldn't be the most shocking result we've ever seen.

Crazy how much more common Begich-Peltola-Palin appears to be than Palin-Peltola-Begich. It's not like Begich is a moderate.

Yeah, but Palin has near universal Name ID, is a rather controversial figure even in Alaska, and the Begich family are a very well-known, multi-generational, popular Democratic political family in Alaska.  I guarantee some folks think Begich is a moderate Democrat or at least more reasonable than he actually is just b/c of his last name.  Again though, the big thing is that Palin has near-universal Name ID and a lot of it is negative at this point.  There was a reason she opted not to run for re-election in 2010.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So Bolduc makes this race pretty much safe for Hassan, right?

Yep