NJ GOV 2025 megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gottheimer fits his district well, but he doesn't fit the state as a whole well, I don't think.

Plus the strikes against him aren't just the BBB opposition/being a pain in the *ss -- it's also because he's not at all a team player apparently, and a prickly/adversarial guy in private.

Think I said before, he definitely could win in a crowded field in 2025, but the odds aren't with him.

How would being an asshole who wants the SALT deduction back be damaging in a state like New Jersey?

It's more complicated than that. He is much more conservative than other Democrats who have won statewide recently (Menendez, Booker, Murphy).

Basically this, plus he's a prickly and standoffish dude in a way that other NJ Dems (Sherill, Murphy, Booker) are very much not.

Yeah, as someone involved in North Jersey politics, Gottheimer is known for being unpleasant and not getting in people's good graces. I remember when he was known thrown out of a local county commissioner's birthday party, because he brought a bodyguard with him (the party was in Paterson). Also, he has ridiculously high staff turnover and went through 3 campaign managers in 2022 cycle alone. I don't think people know what they're talking about if they assume him being moderate and pro-SALT deduction means he's got this.

That’s the vibe I’ve got from what I’ve read.  He doesn’t really seem to have a patron among the north Jersey Democratic machine bosses.  Steve Sweeney is a gross ConservaDem, but he has the Camden-based Norcross machine.  Who does Gottheimer have?  I mean, he can’t run as a progressive insurgent (plus they tend not to do well in NJ even if he could) and he can’t win by running on his own brand the way Booker did since his national profile, inasmuch as he has one, can only hurt him with primary voters.  “Vote for me, fellow Democrats, I did everything possible to kill the party’s legislative agenda b/c my donors oppose a lot of your major priorities” is not a compelling pitch.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not at all a surprise or going to have any impact on 2025.

Of more interest, it seems like both Gottheimer and Sherrill are seriously gearing up to run which leads me to expect a fourth candidate from Central or South Jersey will begin to materialize, whether Sweeney or someone less conservative.

A lot more will be clear after November and we see whether the bleeding down there continues.

Didn’t Sweeney already announce he’s running?