KS-PPP: Marshall+1

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe R and I’m not convinced it’ll even be all that close (high-single digits is probably Bollier’s best case scenario).  Atlas memes aside, this is fool’s gold now and there’s no point wasting another cent on this race.  That money would be better spent on North Carolina, Maine, Montana, Iowa, and/or Georgia‘s Senate races.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe R and I’m not convinced it’ll even be all that close (high-single digits is probably Bollier’s best case scenario).  Atlas memes aside, this is fool’s gold now and there’s no point wasting another cent on this race.  That money would be better spent on North Carolina, Maine, Montana, Iowa, and/or Georgia‘s Senate races.

Safe to means there is literally <1% chance of the other party winning, mainly because they didn’t field a candidate or fielded a Some Guy with no money and no supporters.

It’s unlikely Bollier wins, but she’s a decent candidate with a huge amount of money who is tying in polls, so it’s best to call this Likely R because it’s conceivable that a scandal or a big shift in the national vote even further away from Trump could let her eke out a win. But it’s not likely, so Likely R.

For me, anything with a 15% chance of flipping or less is Safe, 15-30% is Likely, 30-45% is Lean, 45-50% is Tilt, etc.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe R and I’m not convinced it’ll even be all that close (high-single digits is probably Bollier’s best case scenario).  Atlas memes aside, this is fool’s gold now and there’s no point wasting another cent on this race.  That money would be better spent on North Carolina, Maine, Montana, Iowa, and/or Georgia‘s Senate races.

Safe to means there is literally <1% chance of the other party winning, mainly because they didn’t field a candidate or fielded a Some Guy with no money and no supporters.

It’s unlikely Bollier wins, but she’s a decent candidate with a huge amount of money who is tying in polls, so it’s best to call this Likely R because it’s conceivable that a scandal or a big shift in the national vote even further away from Trump could let her eke out a win. But it’s not likely, so Likely R.

For me, anything with a 15% chance of flipping or less is Safe, 15-30% is Likely, 30-45% is Lean, 45-50% is Tilt, etc.

I see value in distinguishing races like this, where Bollier is within 1 point on a poll, from AR-SEN, WY-SEN, MA-SEN (after the primary) where there is literally no path for the out party to win this year.

The latter type are titanium-grade safe