2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Its not hyperpartisan to argue against a split of the Mobile area.. Its literally D partisan hackishness to demand the split of region so they can get another congressional seat in Alabama. There is 0 chance for it in the current Alabama district  courts/11th circuit/SCOTUS . And so far recent court precedence at SCOTUS has taken more of a liking for actual communities when forming VRA districts which is why VA03 and NC12 were cancelled.

It's absolutely hyper-partisan to argue that a seven seat Alabama map where you can easily create two Majority-Minority districts with over 50% AA CVAP should only have one majority-minority district b/c you think it would likely lead to Republicans losing a seat.  NC-12 and VA-3 were drawn as racial gerrymanders designed to dilute minority representation.  For example, VA-3 being canceled led to two AA districts in VA.  IIRC, NC-12 was also scrapped b/c it was designed as a racial gerrymander to dilute minority representation (if memory serves, there were even e-mails from a GOP redistricting operative indicating this was the case in NC, but I could be mistaken).  

There's no real argument against drawing two majority-minority seats if Alabama keeps its 7th district other than "racial gerrymanders are okay as long as it helps the Republican Party politically."  I mean, if you think the Justices on the pertinent Courts are so partisan that they'll subscribe to that view then fair enough, I suppose.  But let's not pretend this is about anything other than Republican partisanship.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

On a 7 district map, would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham and run in the majority white swing district that leans Democratic, or would she take the Black Belt-Mobile district?

Neither because the Black-Belt Mobile district isn't happening.

You hope

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think this definitely has big implications for Louisiana if the SCOTUS appeal fails (more likely to happen than not at this point, but far from certain given Roberts’ fierce hatred of all things VRA and general blindspot - to put it mildly - about systematic racism and Kavanaugh’s likely deference to Roberts here) *and* the Republicans remain unable to override Edwards’ veto (iirc, they’re only one vote short and I am actually more pessimistic about that than I am about what SCOTUS will do, I don’t trust the Louisiana ConservaDems at all). 

That said, SC is a heavier lift imo.  I’ll still be surprised if we win that one.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

2 is going to vote republican at some point probably tbh, maybe this decade evsn

Probably, if current trends hold.  It's a more extreme version of the GA-02 situation.  The entire Dem base is the rural black vote.

With all due respect, this is just demonstrably false doomerism.  Montgomery and Mobile proper are both in this district and there is no reason to believe that it is going to magically become a Republican district.  Could it trend a little to the right?  Entirely possible.  Are Republicans likely to flip it?  Seems highly unlikely and even that’s probably being too generous to Republican chances this decade.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

2 is going to vote republican at some point probably tbh, maybe this decade evsn

Probably, if current trends hold.  It's a more extreme version of the GA-02 situation.  The entire Dem base is the rural black vote.

With all due respect, this is just demonstrably false doomerism.  Montgomery and Mobile proper are both in this district and there is no reason to believe that it is going to magically become a Republican district.  Could it trend a little to the right?  Entirely possible.  Are Republicans likely to flip it?  Seems highly unlikely and even that’s probably being too generous to Republican chances this decade.  

It feels like something that would slowly turn into a swing seat and eventually flip in a Dem president midterm assuming the seat survives into the 2030's.  Could easily flip back the next cycle, though, not saying it's going to be a likely R seat!

This is just me, but I tend to think it is futile to try to predict how folks will vote past the next redistricting cycle.  I mean, would anyone in 2003 reasonably have predicted the post-2016 party coalitions?  It’s just so far out and so much can happen, that it’s just fun speculation.  I mean, it’s hard enough to predict the next election cycle two years in advance.  I don’t think anyone expected the 2022 results in January of 2022.