Ohio redistricting thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

All valid points no doubt, and I have no idea where these critters live. Bowling Green is a suburban place with Lucas. They belong together. You accommodate all these incumbents, and how many talking points will be left, assuming you still want to hew to the keep it to three metric?

Btw, how well do you think this yellow camel thing depicted below that has Troy as the roof of its mouth hews to the "compact" constraint? Inquiring minds want to know. And if Troy and bits of Columbus are in one CD, how come different Congressmen live in each? I guess you meant the Troy southern burbs that are the mouth itself of the camel.

Remember what I said about how hackish state supreme courts have become? They really are a mess.

- Ah, but that’s the hard part!  To draw the gerrymander while still keeping all the necessary parties happy and satisfying their various demands.

- I agree that any remotely reasonable map would have Wood and Lucas counties in the same district.  Again, the issue here is that Latta has the pull with the legislature to block this and jealously guards his fiefdom.  That’s actually why Republicans drew Kaptur’s district the way they did even though combining her and Latta’s districts would easily sink her.  Latta has basically saved her two redistricting cycles in a row.

- Carey’s district is an abomination that makes a complete mockery of the compactness requirement imo.  It’d be upheld though given the new makeup of the court.

- IIRC, that little arm into the southern suburbs of Troy exists specifically to take in Davidson’s house.  It’s one of those zip code gerrymanders you sometimes see to make sure an incumbent’s home is in a particular district even though said district includes hardly any of their hometown.

- I agree about State Supreme Courts being increasingly hackish.  My issue with LaSalle is that he is very much someone who would worsen that trend.  While he is nominally a Democrat, he’s basically a far right extremist backed by corporate interests who is being pushed by a rogues gallery of some of the worst folks the New York Democratic establishment has to offer.  To my mind, that doesn’t make him a moderate.  It makes him someone who would be a horrible justice and I am pretty appalled by the NY Republicans’ attempt to run roughshod over the rule of law.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Researching where the rat bastard Pub incumbents live to tweak the  Pubmander just does not self actualize me. I note that Pub incumbents need only live in the state, not the district, per the US Constitution. In NYS, a bunch of incumbents were bounced from where their home is per the Cervas redraw, who cared about where incumbents live just as much as I did - the null set. Nobody cared in the ensuing election where the politicians lived. Those reelected now live outside the district and love it. It actually turned out that some lived outside their district before the redraw, as the NY Post tabloid pointed out with glee. Nobody cared about that either.

In Ohio, both the Courts and legislature will bend over backwards to accommodate Republican incumbent demands.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So what would the map look like if it was independently-drawn and didn’t take incumbent demands into account?

I did this one long ago, which fixates on hewing to MSA area lines, and putting as much of Columbus in one CD as possible. It was done before the census figures were available, so I adjusted the lines for that data today it caused some adjustment.

The Pubs won’t be drawing this puppy. Independent bodies tend not to be as focused on MSA's.  It is a good way through to try to drain more subjectivity out of the process.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbc973b-47b9-4335-b7c2-02600b7db45d

I’d argue that’s still a pretty overly Republican-friendly map.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The metric ignores partisan effects (proportionality) except as a tie breaker. Let the chips fall where they may.

But hey, you though my NYS map was too Pub when it really was proportional (slight bias to the Dems in fact where the vote share percentages were realistic), all the way up and down the line. After the fact, I proved that to Cervas, using his own metric as stated in his academic articles and to me personally.

This isn't nearly as bad as your NYS map on that front, but I have four real issues with it (1 and 2 would be the case on any fair map whereas 3 and especially 4 are more in the "that's not how I'd have drawn it, but a fair map could definitely still make the choices you made there" category):

1) I'd argue that the Franklin County districts are a real problem although I can easily see how your configuration might make sense on paper .  There should be one district containing as much of Franklin County as will fit in a single district starting south and working your way up (including as much of Columbus proper as possible).  

The second Franklin County district should include 100% of the remainder of Franklin County + Delaware County and then I think the final addition of Morrow County should give the remaining bit of needed population.  Licking County doesn't belong with any of Franklin County unless it's just a slice of the county to round out the last bit of population nor does any of Franklin County belong in the district 15 you drew.  

2) Lucas and Wood County really belong with Ottawa and Erie counties.  It'd be fine to reach over to Fulton County or wherever to finish up the district, but those four counties should be together in full on any fair map imo.

3) Your map needlessly splits Summit County.  Summit County should remain whole with the remainder coming from one of the bordering counties.  

4) The Dayton area seat should really be Montgomery and Greene counties + Springfield, OH.

EDIT: For number two, I meant to say Fulton County not Defiance County.  I went ahead and corrected this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

That is fine. Your metric is involves judgement calls as to COI's as to what belongs with what not tied to geographic categories fashioned by law (counties, munis, MSA's, community districts) and what is fair. The one I try to follow is done by a computer. No humans need apply.

So we can agree to disagree. Life is beautiful.

Well, part of the problem is that I don’t know how to post a DRA map to Atlas

I try to hew to county boundaries when reasonably possible.  I don’t think fixing any of the issues I raised leads to wildly unreasonable County splitting or even significantly more County splits than your map (less in some cases, like Franklin County).  I don’t think my proposal would split many more counties or even municipalities than yours does (quite possibly fewer chops, in fact), but it would simultaneously be a lot better from a COI perspective.  At the very least, to say your proposal respects geographic categories created by the law significantly more than mine is simply not accurate as a matter of fact.  

But as you say, we can agree to disagree.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How I think each of these would play out (only discussing seats that might be competitive, are open seats, or where an incumbent could lose the primary or GE:

The Torie map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbc973b-47b9-4335-b7c2-02600b7db45d

2: I think an establishment type prevails in the primary unless Seitz becomes the main establishment choice as he’d probably lose the primary for a litany of reasons. I doubt he runs though.

4: Davidson probably runs for Senate.  I doubt Carey challenges Jordan in the primary (probably goes back to making bank as a lobbyist), but if he does then he gets Blanched.

5: Primary bloodbath for this Safe R open seat.  Anyone’s game which state legislator wins, but it’ll probably be someone more establishment flavored (albeit certainly not anti-Trump).

OH-6: Bill Johnson moves to OH-13 leaving Balderson with a seat that fits him like a glove.

OH-7: Sykes is toast.  This seat is already fool’s gold for Dems absent a 2006/2008-style wave.

OH-8: Miller is screwed by this map, but no one will care.  Miller probably runs a doomed primary campaign against Joyce and a member of the Manning family easily keeps this seat in Republican hands.

OH-9: Latta easily defeats Kaptur if she even bothers running again (I suspect she wouldn’t tbh).

OH-12: Much more Republican than it looks on paper, but trending hard toward the Democrats.  This one flips whenever the Democrats nominate the right type of Franklin County Dem (i.e. clearcut, inoffensive suburbanite who is generic establishment D without being as dull as watching paint dry).  Plus, idk if the right type of Pub could even win a primary here; it’s hard to say.

OH-13: Johnson moves here and is unopposed.

OH-14: Joyce faces a primary from Miller (who probably carpetbags to this seat), but Joyce wins the primary by like 12-15 points without breaking a sweat.
—————————————

The Nyvin Map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ecce9e75-ff70-476c-b32e-c18e826235da

OH-4: Someone from the legislature wins here, but it is a marquee establishment vs. Freedom Caucus primary fight (unless Latta carpetbags here, but I doubt he would).

OH-5: Jordan runs here and Davidson runs for Senate.

OH-7: Miller carpetbags to OH-13 and a member of the Manning family easily keeps this seat In Republican hands.

OH-8: In the unlikely event Davidson doesn’t run for Senate, he’d run here.  However, this is probably another open seat where the Freedom Caucus types and establishment duke it out in the primary.  The latter probably wins.  If Keith Faber decides to run, he likely clears the field.

OH-9: Kaptur will always face competitive elections, but unless she loses, I think she tries to be a lifer with these boundaries.  Tossup GE with Kaptur facing a much stronger opponent, but in a less Republican district.  Latta would probably win by like 4 points here, but he’s lazy enough about competitive races that I’d bet money on him retiring rather than run a race that wasn’t a 100% slam dunk in the GE.

OH-12: Balderson runs here, but he’s the type of incumbent who could definitely be caught asleep at the wheel and lose his primary in a cycle or two to some unheralded opponent from Canton.

OH-13: Miller runs here and narrowly loses, but Sykes is on borrowed time.  She loses the next type Republicans nominate a candidate who isn’t a complete dumpster fire (they ran a really weak candidate in 2022 and Miller is a domestic abuser who even most Ohio Republicans only barely tolerate b/c Trump likes him).  The Republicans just need a half decent nominee and this seat flips.  Even Renacci probably gets the job done tbh.  If he runs, he might beat Miller in the primary and if so, Sykes loses by about six points.

OH-15: Carey goes back to being a lobbyist and there is a dogfight in the Democratic primary for this safe seat.  A lot of top-tier Democratic talent is bottlenecked in Franklin County with no other clear path for advancement (beyond more or less lateral moves).
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Sol’s Map:

link

OH-2: Wenstrup carpetbags here rather than run a doomed primary campaign in OH-6.  I doubt he runs into any trouble.

OH-4: Davidson runs for Senate leaving Jordan more or less unopposed in his new seat.

OH-5: Either Balderson carpetbags here and gets a district that’s a for him or some Freedom Caucus style nutjob wins a clown car primary.

OH-6: Balderson moves to OH-5 and Wenstrup does the same to OH-2 leaving this seat safely in Johnson’s hands.

OH-8: Flips as soon as Democrats run a candidate who is acceptable to Franklin County and southern Delaware County suburbanites.  In other words, it probably flips right away.  Basically, any Dem who would appeal to folks like me is gonna win here pretty easily.  Maybe Carney runs in hopes of a freak implosion by the Dem, but I really doubt it.  He probably just goes back to being a lobbyist.

OH-9: Some generic establishment type from the legislature narrowly wins a marquee Freedom Caucus vs. establishment primary unless Latta carpetbags to this seat (which I doubt).

OH-10: This is exactly what this district should look like  Anyway, Latta would probably win by like six points here in a very competitive race with Kaptur, but his laziness and aversion to competitive races is extreme enough that he either he carpetbags to OH-9 or (far more likely) just retires.

OH-11: If Miller wins the primary then Dems could definitely flip this seat with the right candidate and it will be a very competitive races.  If a member of the Manning family beats him in the primary then this is an easy Safe R hold.

OH-12: Tossup.  If the Republicans run a weak candidate like in 2022, Sykes probably narrowly holds on (and if not, it becomes a tossup the next cycle).  Against a decent opponent, Sykes probably loses by about 6-8 points.  

OH-13: Some Freedom Caucus type wins a clown car primary of nutjobs all trying to out-crazy each other.  
—————————

GALeftist’s map (clean district lines are your friend )

OH-5: I can’t tell if Bowling Green is in this district, but if so then Bob Latta definitely runs here.  If not, he either carpetbags here or retires.

OH-7: If Miller wins the primary, this is probably a pure tossup every cycle till he loses (which could happen right away tbh).  Otherwise, a member of the Manning family runs here and easily holds it for the Republicans.

OH-8: Davidson *might* decide to run for reelection rather than Senate with this map (might is doing a lot of the heavy lifting there).  If he runs for Senate and Faber doesn’t run, then some Freedom Caucus type probably narrowly beats a more establishment-flavored opponent or two in the primary.

OH-9: If Republicans run a good candidate, this is probably a Tilt R.  If they run another nutjob/dumpster fire then Kaptur probably has better than 50-50 odds of narrowly hanging on.  Still, this seat will never be safe for Kaptur.  

OH-12: Jordan gets this seat.  Carey won’t carpetbag here and if he did, he’d get Blanched in the primary.

OH-13: Flips whenever Republicans get their act together to nominate a solid candidate.  Until then, Sykes narrowly hangs on, but that could mean she doesn’t even last one cycle with this map.  Her fate is entirely in Republican primary voters’ hands.

OH-15: Clown car Democratic primary overflowing with ambitious A-list and B-list candidates desperately trying to seize their only chance to advance beyond the state legislature/county political office for God knows how long.  Safe D seat though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well, it turned out the algorithm had some programing errors, but in the end there was great rejoicing, as it made the map even more wonderful, including that OH-04 is almost perfect in population without another county cut. Notice too that Jim Jordon not only now lives in his district, but also that the district has almost no Democrats, so thus unleashed, Jim can be Jim without having to endure the stress of filtering himself.

There are also a nice batch of competitive seats, which my interlocutor who has this masochistic desire to commit to memory, not only the name, but also the address of each and every political hack politician in the state, will of course complain are still too Pub to be really competitive, so it is all window dressing. His remedy of course is to sue the census bureau for MSA lines that just happened to be Pub friendly, perhaps drawn by Trump moles in that organization. Unleash the hounds and by all means investigate. SCOTUS wants to hear from you.

In all events, be sure to savor that each and every MSA in the state is now both properly covered and nested, with the exception of the Youngstown one, where the real estate shortage dictated that Trumbull be detached from Mahoning (be sure not to miss how clean the detachment was however, almost bloodless), as well as the glorious accomplishment that the Akron MSA is now given the respect it deserves at last, as opposed to being some sliced and diced suburban appendage of Cleveland. I expect something soon there will be named in my honor, perhaps one of the trails in the Cuyahoga National Park, that the pack so very much enjoyed between hospital visits.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb60b9-e614-4b79-9e7f-42bbf59fc68c

Those MSA lines are not particularly Republican-friendly nor are they wildly incompatible with fixing the issues I raised regarding your Franklin County and northwest Ohio districts.  The hyper-partisan contortions in your Franklin County slice-and-dice in particular simply leaps right off the page.  There is absolutely no justification for dividing it up into three districts and the fact that your map does so outs it as a clearcut Toriemander.  As for your OH-9, the only reasonable way to draw that seat is Lucas + Wood + Fulton + Erie + Clinton + as much of Sandusky and/or Henry counties as you need to round out the population.

My objection to the Toriemanders isn’t that they’re Republican gerrymanders, it’s that you try to package them as divinely non-partisan when the outcome is still a gerrymander.  Your system, algorithm or not, is no more immune to the bias of the line drawer than anything else’s.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sorry you took it that way. I deleted all references to you.

No worries

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

The current map was for 2022 only, per state laws.

I think in hindsight, it would've been smart for the Dems to give the current map their votes to lock it in place for the decade rather than allowing a redraw that could produce a worse map. The only way OH Dems will get a better map this decade is if a commission gets on the ballot and passes so having a subpar congressional map in the meantime is better than an extreme 13-2 map.

The thing is, they thought it was a 13-2 map then. The Cincinnati seat was no sure gain, Marcy Kaptur looked like a goner and it was assumed the Republicans would gain the Ryan seat (hence why he ran for Senate).

The fact it ended 10-5 was quite a surprise, actually.

Eh, I think they thought it was a 10-3 map.  Chabot was always unlikely to win and I’m not really sure why so many prognosticators thought he was favored. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here is an OH map drawn as best I can to hew to the Muon2 rules. Those rules in part are driven by covering and nesting of CD’s in recognized multi-county metro areas. Sometimes when they change, it changes the map such as when the Canton metro area added Carroll County as well as its home county of Stark to it. That increased the value of keeping Stark whole and in the same CD as Carroll. The only metro area that does not get the maximum score is Youngstown, which had to be split. Something had to be split given the traffic jam in the NE corner of the state between the Cleveland, Akron, Canton and Youngstown metro areas.

I doubt the Pubs will be this generous, but maybe.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fd39f645-37d7-4cf0-bf46-59f1e1bfba73

This is a partisan Republican gerrymander as is any map without two Democratic seats anchored in Franklin County.  Nothing generous about it.  

More importantly, your OH-14, OH-9/OH-5, and OH-4 would all be non-starters.  You double-bunked Davidson and Jordan, put Joyce in a blue-tilting seat that Tim Ryan could run in, and Latta (who has some real pull in the legislature) will fight like hell to kill any map that puts him and Kaptur in the same seat or fails to put Wood County in a titanium Safe R district even if it costs Republicans Kaptur’s district.  Come to think of it, I doubt Republicans would agree to your OH-8 either as Miller is a weak incumbent who could be pretty vulnerable there in the next Democratic-leaning year.

We’re probably looking at a map that keeps Landsman and Kaptur’s seats largely the same, and weakens Sykes.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I drew it based on an algorithm, which except as a tie breaker, ignores partisan effects. You can characterize it as you like, and opine that the real line drawers have their own priorities, and that is fine. My "generous" comment was based on what the Pubs would think, not what you would think.

What I was doing was an exercise that because based on neutral rules, that make sense, it becomes harder to characterize as an unfairly partisan based on partisan motives. Arguing what is partisan or unfair in the abstract is something I just do not do anymore. I like to draw maps based on exogenous neutral rules and see how they play out, and how they will fly in court, or should.

The partisan lean image was wrong because it used a composite number rather than the 2020 Trump number. And thus the Dems are on the cusp of 2 Columbus area CD's in any event.

If you want to draw a map as to what you think the Pubs will do with a friendly court go for it.

I would draw one, but sadly Dave’s redistricting app and my computer don’t see eye to eye so all I can do is comment on other people’s maps.  It is very frustrating

Re: Franklin County: surely community of interest is a vital part of any neutral redistricting principles?

Also, I think you double-bunked Balderson and Johnson as well. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If the Ohio supreme court sides with the republicans. It means the map stays in place 2 additional years right ?

No; it means that many of the opinions from 2021 get overturned and the GOP could enact a map like the previously enacted proposal, though it's unclear that they have the numbers to enact something like this again in the state House. (This specific map is also a non-starter because it puts Miller and Sykes together in a seat which is only Leans R -- the NEOH lines would have to change, but it would certainly be possible to screw over Sykes pretty hard. On this map Landsman's seat is redder than on the real map but still notionally blue, but this map was enacted with some moderate components to try to please the old Court, so it might be that a new map would draw a notionally-red-in-2022 seat.)

I don’t think they can get a redder HamCo seat through the State House at this point. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You guys realize that the State House Speaker, Jason Stephens, was elected by the entire OH House Democratic Caucus teaming up with ~1/3 of the OH House Republican Caucus to block the other 2/3s of the OH House Republican Caucus from electing the Republican leadership team, right?  A major part of that deal was that Stephens would work extremely closely with Democrats on redistricting.  Democrats could kill Stephens’ speakership at any time by pulling their support if he tries to renege.  There is no appetite among the Republicans who matter in the State House for the sort of maximalist RRH-fantasy 10-2 maps that folks are posting.

Plus, Ohio Republicans in general aren’t in the same sort of “f*** you” mood over redistricting that NC Republicans are or rather, there is still real fear that a non-BS fair redistricting amendment might get passed.  

While neither is the most likely outcome, even a least change map is more likely than a 13-2 at this point.  My guess is we end up with a 10-3-2 map with a competitive-ish seat that is still Republican-leaning enough seat to sink Sykes (and trending R enough that it won’t stay competitive much longer) and a seat that easily flips once Kaptur retires.

Also bare in mind that any map that puts most of Wood County in Kaptur’s district, the city of Troy and/or its southern suburbs in either Turner’s district or the same district as Urbana, puts Zanesville and Marietta in the same district, or puts Rocky River in a non-Safe R seat is a non-starter as it will piss off the various Republican Congressmen.  Bowling Green, Urbana, Dayton, Troy and its southern suburbs, Rocky River, Hillsboro, Marietta, Zanesville, South Russell, and whatever south or west Columbus precinct Mike Carey lives in all need to be in different Safe R districts.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

I see. I really hope there's a serious effort to get a redistricting commission on the ballot for 2024 and passed. Seems like so much emphasis is just going to an abortion initiative rn, and I worry it may completely overshadow any effort for redistricting commission.

Note that the first hurdle would be a 60% ballot measure in August - if that ballot measure somehow passes, it would probably make this and other future proposed ballot measures more difficult. (As we speak now, there is an active effort to get people to vote down the August ballot measure.)

Yeah, but I think that would hurt things like trying to protect abortion rights at the ballot box a lot more than something like a redistricting reform (most people tend to default to reflexively supporting the latter regardless of the particular proposal’s merits or lack thereof).

In any case, getting Democratic votes for whatever slightly more Republican-leaning and/or least change map the State House produces (my guess is that they start with least change map).  Meanwhile the Republican State Senate leader, Matt Huffman, is the sort who probably will produce if not a maximalist gerrymander than at the very least a significantly more Republican map than even the current gerrymander.  However, I doubt he’ll fight too much over congressional redistricting as long as Republicans end up the clear winners relative to their current position. 

Kaptur is helped tremendously by Latta’s selfish and lazy tendencies.  He has a lot of pull in both Houses of the state legislature (albeit not quite as much as he used to) and will fight like Hell to keep most of Wood County in a separate Safe R district from Kaptur’s seat even if it costs Republicans a house seat and he’d be a near lock in the new district.  He simply doesn’t care and has no interest in anything remotely resembling a competitive race for the rest of his career.  Both OH legislative Houses were already going to have to deal with this and with Stephens having to fight hard for a map that’s acceptable to OH House Dems if he and his affiliated ~1/3 of the OH House Republican want to remain in power, I could easily see Huffman agreeing to just leave Kaptur’s seat largely untouched, especially since she’s old and it’ll probably flip as soon as she retires anyway.

As for Landsman and Sykes, Matt Huffman (along with most non-Stephens faction Republicans, for that matter) is almost certainly going to insist on one of them being sacrificed as tribute.  It’s possible that there are enough Republican in the State Senate who don’t really care enough to get in a pissing match over this that we end up with a least change map, but I doubt it.  It’s possible and more likely than a maximalist 13-2 RRH fantasy gerrymander…but it sure isn’t how I’d bet. 

So Landsman or Sykes probably gets the axe.  I actually think much of the OH House Democratic Caucus would much rather throw Landsman to the wolves, but geography will save Landsman.  We may end up with Warren County being “liberated” and Landsman getting an all HamCo seat if it doesn’t force changes elsewhere that would inconvenience anyone in the Republican US House delegation.  We could also see a least change version of Landsman’s seat, but I highly doubt it gets more Republican.

That leaves Sykes as the one to be sacrificed and that area is trending Republican anyway (she only won b/c Republicans nominated a dumpster fire-tier candidate…whom they seem inexplicably intent on running again in 2024 for some reason).  This district will likely be redrawn as a technically competitive but still reliably Republican district (they did the same thing to Betty Sutton in 2012).  I imagine it’d just take swapping the Sykes precincts in Stark County for blood red Stark County and northern Tuscarawas County precincts (and maybe some from Noble County to round out the population if necessary) from OH-6.  The new district would be Republican enough (and rapidly trending Republican as well) that to sink Sykes while also being secure for even a weak incumbent in non-wave elections (and even then, it may just be Safe R for the rest of the decade). 

I think that would be enough to appease everyone.  Obviously, the Democrats from Summit County have to oppose it (or at least loudly complain) for optics reasons (the Sykes family is extremely well-connected and basically the first family of African-American Democratic politics in Akron and it’ll still be a major Republican gerrymander, but Democrats also know that while they have some real leverage, it is far from unlimited.  As Torie would say, this is a “pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered” situation.  They can likely force a map that keeps Kaptur in office until she dies, faces a true Republican wave, or decides to retire and keeps the Cincinnati seat in Democratic hands, but if they get greedy and say least change or bust then it could backfire.  Whether it’s State Senate Republicans or State House Democratic Caucus-Stephens faction coalition, if anyone digs in and throws such a temper-tantrum that this becomes DeWine’s problem, then it’s going to backfire for that side.

As for state legislative redistricting, we’re likely to see a maximalist Republican State Senate gerrymander and either an incumbent protection gerrymander or a map that helps State House Dems and Stephens Republicans while double-bunking or otherwise endangering some of Stephens’ most vocal and/or politically dangerous Republican foes.

Stephens and Huffman will be given wide latitude in drawing maps for their respective chamber.  That’s just how Ohio politics works.  Plus, DeWine and LaRose are party hacks who never had a truly independent thought in their lives (this is especially true of LaRose).  They’re not looking to rock the boat by asserting themselves, they’re looking for the path of least resistance that all important Republican players can live with.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here is a map that puts most of Latta's precious Wood County into OH-05. It does not change the partisan balance at all from my previous "fair and balanced" map that got your blood to run so hot.  The thing is, is that Wood is not all that Pub.If Latta wants it, he can have it. In a neutral metrics map it is part of the Toledo metro and should stay with it, but MSA integrity is Greek to the rubes who did not even master Latin because they didn't get into Harvard or something.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

My critiques were in two categories: 1) things I care about that the legislature and Courts won’t (fair map issues like the Franklin County situation) and 2) things Republicans will care about.  You still double-bunked Balderson and Johnson, Turner and Davidson (or depending on where the latter runs, Davidson and Jordan).  You did address the Latta issue though and as you say, Wood County isn’t some blood-red Republican stronghold.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here is a map that puts most of Latta's precious Wood County into OH-05. It does not change the partisan balance at all from my previous "fair and balanced" map that got your blood to run so hot.  The thing is, is that Wood is not all that Pub.If Latta wants it, he can have it. In a neutral metrics map it is part of the Toledo metro and should stay with it, but MSA integrity is Greek to the rubes who did not even master Latin because they didn't get into Harvard or something.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

My critiques were in two categories: 1) things I care about that the legislature and Courts won’t (fair map issues like the Franklin County situation) and 2) things Republicans will care about.  You still double-bunked Balderson and Johnson, Turner and Davidson (or depending on where the latter runs, Davidson and Jordan).  You did address the Latta issue though and as you say, Wood County isn’t some blood-red Republican stronghold.

It is almost as if it were not legal for a rep to live outside their district.  In NYS, at the rate things are going, it will be an oddity if a rep does live in their district. 

It might as well be illegal in Ohio

More importantly though, Balderson and Jordan have basically been drawn out.  Balderson you could maybe get away with if Weinstrup runs in your OH-2 and then Balderson carpetbags to your OH-15.  However, Jordan is basically screwed under your map and as much as I imagine we’d both enjoy seeing him go down in flames, that ain’t happening

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not as much as Boehner would. 😝

There was speculation in 2011-2012 that Republicans would eliminate Jim Jordan's seat.
In the end, it didn't happen.

I’ve seen the map Boehner threatened him with; they came *this* close before Jordan cried “uncle.”  It was hideous, but it would’ve done the trick.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not as much as Boehner would. 😝

There was speculation in 2011-2012 that Republicans would eliminate Jim Jordan's seat.
In the end, it didn't happen.

I’ve seen the map Boehner threatened him with; they came *this* close before Jordan cried “uncle.”  It was hideous, but it would’ve done the trick.

Is that map online? An image of it? Now I'm curious...Thanks in advance.

No, but it made the rounds behind the scenes even in some Democratic circles as everyone assumed it was gonna be the map for a while.  It basically just carved his seat up like a Thanksgiving Turkey.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What's the general expectation on the August ballot initiative? There doesn't seem to be any polling, though I don't imagine there to be much trust in polling for an election in the middle of summer. If it passes, it would obviously seriously complicate efforts for true redistricting reform. The 60% requirement is certainly the main part of it (particularly pertinent to the likely abortion rights initiative in November), but it would also require signatures from every single county in the state and eliminate the cure period.

Very unclear.  OTOH there is a strong, organized, unexpectedly visible campaign against it and no real campaign for it.  Then again, people tend to default to voting yes on complex ballot issues they don’t really understand, so who knows?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jim Jordan has found a home, and there was great rejoicing. Badger will be the next Dem nominee to run against him, and the debates between there will become the stuff of legend. It may well be that just as was the case with Buckley and Vidal, prudence will dictate that they will need to debate from separate rooms. Meanwhile, map junkies will be amazed that the array of OH-03, OH-12, and OH-15 come within 99 people of a perfect county fit, while seamlessly nesting and covering the Columbus MSA.

Mr. X immediately files a lawsuit to make Jordan’s district more Dem, and is sanctioned by the Ohio Supremes for his hubris upon motion, by yes, you guessed it, Jim Jordan, thereby causing his curriculum vitae to be further enhanced by the twin titles of legislative and judicial terrorist (Trump of course retaining his grip on the executive terrorist title).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

Yeah, but now you’ve completely drawn out Balderson and left him no where he can even realistically carpetbag to  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

Johnson lives way down in Marietta and represents much of OH-6 already, he ain’t moving.  And if we say OH-15 belongs to Balderson then you’ve drawn out Carey who has even more pull than Balderson.

I’m already assuming Davidson and Weinstrup are fine carpetbagging in your latest map, lest you think I am utterly without mercy

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

Johnson lives way down in Marietta and represents much of OH-6 already, he ain’t moving.  And if we say OH-15 belongs to Balderson then you’ve drawn out Carey who has even more pull than Balderson.

I’m already assuming Davidson and Weinstrup are fine carpetbagging in your latest map, lest you think I am utterly without mercy

Why would Carey have more pull than Balderson?

Before getting elected to the House, he was an extremely well-connected coal industry lobbyist and I believe he is also the Chairman of the Ohio Coal Association’s Board of Directors.  Balderson was some random rural state legislator who was never supposed to win, but eeked by in a clown car primary against a bunch of Delaware and Franklin County Republicans.  However, now that he’s there, they’re not gonna just up and drew him out.  Still, Carey has far more pull.  

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

Johnson lives way down in Marietta and represents much of OH-6 already, he ain’t moving.  And if we say OH-15 belongs to Balderson then you’ve drawn out Carey who has even more pull than Balderson.

I’m already assuming Davidson and Weinstrup are fine carpetbagging in your latest map, lest you think I am utterly without mercy

OH-13 lacks representation, and Zanesville is not all that different from Youngstown and environs is it (e.g. no gay pride parades)? What we cannot do is mess with the MSA's! That is the constraint.

Your OH-13 has too many locals who’d jump at the chance to run in that open seat.  Balderson would likely lose the primary, especially if Stark County Republicans only run one or two of their own (as is highly likely).  Balderson could quite conceivably finish a distant third or even fourth in your OH-13.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

ProgressiveModerate's northeast Ohio configuration looks a lot like what I can imagine the Republicans ultimately adopting, but you drew Latta out of his seat, which he is unreasonably protective of, and you gave Wenstrup a much more competitive seat that I imagine he will fight like hell not to take. If the Hamilton County seat is going to move red, it's going to be placed with Warren, which it was with over the last decade, rather than with the counties to its immediate east, however much more 'clean' the latter plan seems to be.

Actually, Wenstrup lives in Hillsboro in PM’s OH-2, so he’d be happy.  However, you’re right that Latta would scream bloody murder.  Beyond which, the map would be DOA anyway since it double-bunks Jim Jordan and Mike Carey.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

X, Vosem Badger what do you guys think? Will the court allow this?

Allow what?  A plaintiff can drop its lawsuit any time it wants; the Court has no say in that part.