Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ugh.  I stayed up for this?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus 2.0, here we come

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Motion to change thread title to Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in Disarray

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Remember that time I said Bernie didn't understand how to build downballot power?

I mean, given the margin, it seems clear that his being on the ballot had little to do with Karofsky winning tbh (except maybe at the margins).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

Aren't there now three Democrats since we just picked up a WI SC seat?  If Hagedorn also ends up supporting it then that would be 4-3 in favor of the public health orders, no?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Have to laugh in a sick way when Vos/Fitzgerald try to hit Evers on taking a unilateral approach to COVID. Coming from the two guys who have refused to have the legislature meet since March and are using public money to fight a court case to overturn the mask mandate when they could do it in a day through their day jobs (of course while their base areas are in deep red trouble from it).

Vos in particular seems like an especially odious individual.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

Does the governor have an say in redistricting

Yes, Evers can veto maps by the Legislature.

is there going to be a more fair map assuming the GOP doesn't get super majorities

Depends how the WI SC rules.  There is one conservative Justice who is more from the ideological-wing than the “cling to/gain more power at all costs” wing of the WI Republican Party IIRC.  OTOH, the WI SC has a 3-4 Republican majority and the aforementioned Justice has a mixed record when it comes to his willingness to break with the other three Republican Justices, so who knows.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

I haven’t done the maths but I really wonder whether the post September tightening saw a lot of resources go elsewhere- NV obviously needed it, but I wonder how much NH and some other house raises got.

It really was awful that Barnes got outspent in that time and iirc he didn’t have a huge lead in campaign cash to overturn the huge Super PAC spending against him.

It really stings but despite how close it was, I don't think Barnes actually could have won. Johnson was more toxic than we thought

Hard to say, but what is pretty clear is that Kind would’ve won had he run (assuming he could win the nomination).  I think Barnes might’ve won had he received significantly more outside support (maybe if the DSCC made it’s beefed up late-ish play here rather than in North Carolina and began doing so back in early September), but it’s impossible to know.  

I do think this election shows that #StrongIncumbent Ron Johnson was largely a myth/meme given that he almost lost to Barnes despite Barnes being a pretty weak candidate who received inconsistent support from the national party.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

I haven’t done the maths but I really wonder whether the post September tightening saw a lot of resources go elsewhere- NV obviously needed it, but I wonder how much NH and some other house raises got.

It really was awful that Barnes got outspent in that time and iirc he didn’t have a huge lead in campaign cash to overturn the huge Super PAC spending against him.

It really stings but despite how close it was, I don't think Barnes actually could have won. Johnson was more toxic than we thought

Hard to say, but what is pretty clear is that Kind would’ve won had he run (assuming he could win the nomination).  I think Barnes might’ve won had he received significantly more outside support (maybe if the DSCC made it’s beefed up late-ish play here rather than in North Carolina and began doing so back in early September), but it’s impossible to know.  

I do think this election shows that #StrongIncumbent Ron Johnson was largely a myth/meme given that he almost lost to Barnes despite Barnes being a pretty weak candidate who received inconsistent support from the national party.  

I think Barnes wins if he would have been able to counter Johnson's post-primary spending barrage that permanently defined Barnes as weak on crime which critically wounded him. Just countering that with equal spending I think would have gotten him the necessary votes. He only needed to flip ~15k. Funny enough, Johnson's strategy here is what Baldwin has done to both of her opponents in both 2012 and 2018. You hit them hard immediately after the primary.

Re: Baldwin: Ehhhh…I dunno.  I don’t recall 2012 that clearly, but 2018 wasn’t anything so impressive.  Baldwin’s opponent was a whacko sacrificial lamb and the seat was always considered Safe D iirc (plus, it was 2018).  I actually think Baldwin is somewhat overrated Re: candidate strength and is basically just Generic D.