2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose (user search)
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  2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose  (Read 74459 times)
Chancellor Tanterterg
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« on: December 15, 2018, 10:55:53 AM »

If Ducey is smart he won't nominate McSally. That'll be a smack in the face to voters, but then again, so is appointing someone for 2 years that the people have no say in so...

who else could he appoint besides her and Kimberly Yee

AZ GOP bench is absolutely garbage. And the voters didn't say no to Mcsally but more yes for Sinema.

Garbage bench? LMAO. I will remind Atlas that AZ is still a pink state, McSally just ran as a 2004 neocon and wasted all the opportunities afforded her to attack Sinema.

Garbage bench might be a bit strong, but it is a surprisingly weak one.  Ducey won’t run b/c Hobbs would become Governor, McSally would likely be sunk by the optics of appointing her, Kimberly Yee hasn’t even been sworn in as Treasurer yet which means the optics would be horrible with her too, and while Brnovich has been talked up a lot, his electoral track record is decidedly meh (a narrow win in the 2014 wave and a 51-48 win in 2018 against an underfunded, weak C-lister in a race that pretty much everyone had written off as Safe R). 

IIRC Salmon is generally regarded in Arizona as a right-wing firebrand to the point that he’d likely struggle a bit statewide these days in a way he didn’t back in 2002 (although he lost then too), plus he’s got has-been written all over him.  The GOP congressional delegation isn’t too impressive either.  Biggs and Schweikert are both way to the right of the state and at least one of them (forget which) has some scandals that were bad enough to trigger an ethics investigation by the Republican-controlled House.  Lesko seems like an underperformer, just got elected to the House, and IIRC has some ethics issues of her own, but I could be misremembering.  As for Paul Gosar...well...lol, you might as well run Ward since Gosar’s at that level. 

The smart play for AZ Republicans would have been to act like McSally was the frontrunner and then have McSally make a big feel-good show of taking herself out of consideration b/c of how important it is to respect the will of the voters and that she hopes to have another chance in the future to continue fighting for Arizona.  Maybe throw in some hokey nonsense like “if I’m blessed with such a chance in the future, I promise that will be reporting for duty just like when I fought overseas to protect the freedoms we hold dear” or whatever.  Ducey could then nominate a buddy of his as a placeholder like Kirk Adams with the understanding they won’t seek re-election and then McSally could have run in 2020 with decent optics.  She blew that though by being too obvious about how badly she wanted the appointment, so I don’t see many great options for the Republicans here.  Their best bet is probably still Brnovich, but [two years before the election] it looks the Democrats should be able to beat him on paper if they run Greg Stanton (all things being equal). 

Side note: I go back and forth on Gallego.  I like him, but I worry he may have a few cycles left to wait before he can win statewide in AZ against a generic Republican and the more I think about it, the more I think he’d have an especially hard time in a Senate race.  I think Gallego and the AZDP might both be better off if Stanton runs for Senate in 2020 and then Gallego runs for Governor in 2022 [if we pickup the Senate seat and it’s not looking like a GOP wave] and/or runs for Senate in 2026 [if Republicans hold the Senate seat in 2020]. 
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2019, 12:46:21 PM »


Apparently Gallego is Schumer’s first choice here, interestingly enough. 
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2020, 09:43:53 AM »

Looks like Dems are leaving Bollier and Cunningham out and targeting AZ, CO, ME and MT. Cunningham has not been seen during this coronavirus and there is no internal polls done on KS. Regardless, that gives Dems the majority after losing AL as excepted

Cunningham just announced today he raised $4.4 million. He's clearly still in this

If anything, Cunningham is at least slightly favored although I still have it at tilt D pending more polling.  The pre-coronavirus polling was already consistently terrible for Tillis IIRC.  This reminds me a bit of the 2008 NC Senate race tbh.  A relatively unknown Democrat running against a weak Republican after bigger-name contenders passed in a race most believe to be Lean R despite the evidence suggesting that the Democrat is favored.  Tbh, I could see Cunningham winning by a larger than expected margin (albeit obviously not as much as Hagan did).  

Side note: The Dems should really make some attack ads using the clip of Tillis saying restaurant workers shouldn't be required to wash their hands.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2020, 06:42:31 PM »

Serious question:  why did Ducey appoint this idiot?

Arizona's GOP bench is surprisingly weak. The remaining members of the congressional delegation are all either far-right lunatics (Lesko, Biggs, Gosar) or are bogged down by ethics issues (Schweikert).

I think his logic was that she could take the L this year, allowing him to take the seat back in 2022. We'll see if his approval recovers by then.

People were talking about her as a future Presidential contender in mid-2018 and she was still considered a strong candidate when appointed
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Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2020, 09:28:22 PM »

Serious question:  why did Ducey appoint this idiot?

Arizona's GOP bench is surprisingly weak. The remaining members of the congressional delegation are all either far-right lunatics (Lesko, Biggs, Gosar) or are bogged down by ethics issues (Schweikert).

I think his logic was that she could take the L this year, allowing him to take the seat back in 2022. We'll see if his approval recovers by then.

I guess I wasn't following Arizona politics too closely back then.  Was AG Mark Brnovich ever considered for the seat?  He seems like he would have been a reasonable choice and probably a better candidate this year.

No, McSally was still considered a future POTUS frontrunner so she got appointed.
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