Overrated:- Steve Daines - He's not a weak incumbent or anything like that and is definitely a stronger candidate than Rosendale (I'd say he's about on par with Dennis Rehberg), but he's not the unbeatable titan some make him out to be (sort of like how Ohio leans Republican, but it's not the diehard bastion of Trumpist Republicanism that the CW now makes it out to be*). While Bullock is definitely the best Democratic candidate here, I don't think we need him to beat Daines (it'd definitely help though). The Democrats seem to have a decent bench here and a very strong state party, but obviously Bullock would be ideal. I really hope Bullock doesn't think he can win the Presidential primaries because...well...lol.
- John Cornyn - He'll almost certainly win, but the CW is that he's not even worth challenging with a credible opponent and I think that's silly. We definitely want to run a credible A-list or strong B-list wave/scandal insurance candidate here. Cornyn probably wins, but keeping things close could do wonders both for down the ballot turnout and for the name recognition of whatever enterprising up-and-comer is willing to take him on. Plus, we want to continue to build on the progress we made here in 2018 and part of that is running credible candidates for statewide races going forward. Last cycle, the only statewide candidates who weren't blatant sacrificial lambs were O'Rourke and arguably Justin Nelson (I think an A-list Democratic candidate for Texas AG, would've probably won in 2018) and yet even some of our weakest nominees like Mike Collier came reasonably close.
- Susan Collins - Is she a strong incumbent? Sure, but much weaker than she used to be. Is she an unbeatable titan? LOL, of course not. Collins could win re-election, but she has a pretty tough slog ahead of her and at the very least, it'll likely be the toughest Senate race of her career (and the first truly competitive one since she was elected in 1996). I don't think Collins is in such great shape and would be more surprised if she wins re-election than if she loses (assuming the Democrats don't screw up candidate recruitment), but we shall see.
- Cory Gardner - Just based on 2014 where he won largely b/c of how the media inexplicably turned into a collection of diehard pro-Gardner hacks that cycle (still very confused by that whole campaign tbh; why did the media collectively turn into the Cory Gardner fan club?), I'm guessing he'll be wildly over-rated this cycle despite the fact that he's probably toast (barring some unforeseeable scandal or bizarre recruiting fail).
- Joni Ernst - She strikes me as a pretty meh incumbent who got elected by beating a really weak opponent; I've never gotten why so many folks act like she's such a strong candidate. I think a solid A-list recruit would make this an instant tossup. I also don't think Iowa has lurched quite as far to the right as CW suggests.
- Martha McSally - If she gets appointed to this seat right after losing to Sinema, she'll get beaten with that fact like a pinata in 2020 and it'll be a really effective attack.
- Mark Kelly - Not sure why he always gets mentioned as a candidate for every race in Arizona.
- Grant Woods - Running McCain's former Chief of Staff (a longtime Republican) as the Democratic nominee for Senate is just a really bad idea and whichever Democrat thought of it should feel bad
- Chris Sununu - He's not running for Senate, but if he does then he'll lose.
- Jeanne Sheheen - She should win re-election, but she's not an unbeatable titan like some suggest (as in, I doubt she loses in 2020, but I could certainly see her losing to an A-list opponent during the next Republican wave election).
Underrated: - Doug Jones - For the reasons stated by the OP
- Mitch McConnell - Duh.
- Various Montana Democrats not named "Steve Bullock" - See the section about Steve Daines
- Edward Markey - I'm not quite sure how this happened, but apparently the CW became that he'd be vulnerable against Seth Moulton (ROTFL) or Charlie Baker (with Trump on the ballot in a Presidential election year in MA lol). Markey is not gonna lose to either of those folks; he's safe in the primary and even safer in the general.
- David Perdue - He's not an unbeatable titan or anything, but I do think we'll face an uphill battle here. Stacy Abrams or that former mayor from Columbus aren't gonna cut it. We need a real A-list candidate here.
- Gary Peters - Like Ernst, he's a pretty meh incumbent who won by beating an unexpectedly weak opponent in 2014. However, I think Trump will actually be a net-negative for whomever Peters runs against this cycle and I think it'd take both a strong Republican year and an A-list opponent to beat Peters in 2020. The second one is unlikely, but not impossible (Fred Upton might run, but he's from the wrong part of the state and might struggle in the primary). However, regardless of what happens in the Presidential race, I really don't see 2020 being a Republican wave. Peters probably wins an underwhelming victory no matter who he faces though and may well go down the next time he's up during a Republican wave.
- Pat Roberts - Yes, he's an awful candidate and may lose the primary if he even runs for re-election, but Kris Kobach he is not. This is safe R in the GE unless Roberts retires and Kris Kobach gets nominated against an A-list Democrat...then it's right on the border between Likely R and Safe R
- Greg Stanton - I get why Gallego might seem like a more exciting choice and Gallego could probably win, but I think Stanton is our strongest candidate for this race. I'd be happy with Stanton or Gallego though and you can make good arguments for either one being the better pick. Now watch us blow this race by nominating McCain's former Chief of Staff
