CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For purposes of Sanity and Time, along with the fact that CA takes forever to count, WULFRIC PROJECTIONS (TM) on June 5 will NOT include California U.S. House races. I will still project the CA Senate and Gov Races.

Deeply Disappointing

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hopefully Persky gets recalled

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anyone find it interesting that both candidates in CA-49 will be from South OC (despite only being ~1/4 of the district)?

Mike Levin got his entire lead over Jacobs from the OC portion of the district too. Funny how that works out.

Hey, you still had a victory   Katie Porter won and has a real shot of winning the GE (meaning no one will complain about her beating David Min in the primary). 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

True, but Rohrabacher should be favored over either one.

He's damaged goods in a district Clinton won.   I'd put him as one of the top 3 or top 5 most vulnerable incumbents in the country.  He didn't even get a third of the vote in his primary.

He did very well in 2016, and while I think it will be closer this time, I still think he wins 52-48.

He's toast against Rouda.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Flaccavento and Luria and Spanberger andComstock Wexton and Freitas Kaine! Let's go VA!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Barbara Comstock is only up 59-41%

58-42%

57-43%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH GOD

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Archie Parnell
498   67.4%   
Sidney Moore
99   13.4   
Mark Ali
86   11.6   
Steve Lough
56   7.6   
739 votes, 1% reporting (2 of 363 precincts)


Also I think Stewart's favored at this point. Nearly all of PWC and Fairfax still out.

At least Norman will win re-election against Parnell, but...yeah.  If Parnell drops below 50%, do we get a runoff?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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Called it

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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Called it

I send you accolades, even though you never said you would accept them!

Thank you, good sir.  I do indeed accept them

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wait. Democrats currently have 49% of the vote in South Carolina?

2% reporting

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In other news, California is still counting, and Keirstead continues to gradually expand his lead for 2nd place in CA-48.  Tonight's update:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   42,405   30.6%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   23,969   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   23,513   17.0%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   22,375   16.2%

Booooooo

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do you guys think Arrington will make SC-01 less safe for the GOP?

it's a wash. Arrington is more polarizing politically but Sanford is still... Sanford. He's made a lot of people angry over the years for a bunch of very legitimate reasons (scandals, running the government poorly, anti-Trump in a Trumpish district, and generally being kind of a jerk).

Sanford winning would be much better since it'd show that one can be openly critical of Trump and still win a Republican primary.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do you guys think Arrington will make SC-01 less safe for the GOP?

it's a wash. Arrington is more polarizing politically but Sanford is still... Sanford. He's made a lot of people angry over the years for a bunch of very legitimate reasons (scandals, running the government poorly, anti-Trump in a Trumpish district, and generally being kind of a jerk).

Sanford winning would be much better since it'd show that one can be openly critical of Trump and still win a Republican primary.

The problem is... you can't.

Hope springs eternal

(and no, Romney doesn't count as anti-Trump at this point)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do you guys think Arrington will make SC-01 less safe for the GOP?

it's a wash. Arrington is more polarizing politically but Sanford is still... Sanford. He's made a lot of people angry over the years for a bunch of very legitimate reasons (scandals, running the government poorly, anti-Trump in a Trumpish district, and generally being kind of a jerk).

Sanford winning would be much better since it'd show that one can be openly critical of Trump and still win a Republican primary.

The problem is... you can't.

Hope springs eternal

(and no, Romney doesn't count as anti-Trump at this point)

If Romney doesn't count then Sanford sure as hell doesn't either.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Praying for Golden.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do you guys think Arrington will make SC-01 less safe for the GOP?

it's a wash. Arrington is more polarizing politically but Sanford is still... Sanford. He's made a lot of people angry over the years for a bunch of very legitimate reasons (scandals, running the government poorly, anti-Trump in a Trumpish district, and generally being kind of a jerk).

Sanford winning would be much better since it'd show that one can be openly critical of Trump and still win a Republican primary.

The problem is... you can't.

Hope springs eternal

(and no, Romney doesn't count as anti-Trump at this point)

If Romney doesn't count then Sanford sure as hell doesn't either.

I'm not saying Romney is currently a Trump critic. I'm saying that if Romney doesn't qualify due to actions he's taken since 2016, then neither does Sanford.

I may be misremembering, but didn't Stanford actually vote against a bill Trump wanted at some point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kevin Cramer is the projected winner in ND, Armstrong leading Campbell by 24 points rn (ND-AL).

Wasn't Camphell considered the favorite (and a relatively stronger candidate)?

I thought Campbell dropped out a while ago  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah, Campbell dropped out and endorsed Armstrong. Remember when Senator Campbell was actually a real possibility? Yeah, me neither.

Pretty pathetic showing by Armstrong, no? 

Also this:

Disgusting, Virginia.  Stewart is a racist and should be forcibly removed from the GOP.

The standard bearer of your party is a racist. You can't escape it.

It's good that EC is willing to say this.  He's a counter example to the popular meme that all Republicans are racists.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is there any particular reason to prefer Rouda over Keirstead (or vice versa)? They look pretty interchangeable to me, tbh.

Keirstead did have that issue where apparently he was accused of sleeping with (graduate) students, but apparently he was cleared of that (at least as much as you're willing to trust a university investigation I guess?). Either way, it's something of a liability.

He also punched a student in the face iirc

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mimi Walters is down to 51.7% of the vote

Hopefully this is below the Mimimum she needs to win the general election.

I believe someone recently pointed out that Republicans have lost 9/10 of the Congressional elections in California where the R total was >50% but <55% in the primary since the top-two system was implemented, and the one they didn't lose was the Dem shutout in CA-25 in 2014. So the Dems should feel very good about gaining CA-10, CA-25, CA-45, CA-48 and CA-49 this year (though CA-21 is probably going to remain elusive).

In that case, the Democrats should also feel good about CA-39 since the Republicans currently have a combined total of 53.3% there.