NJ-11: Frelinghuysen retiring

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think a solid R Assemblyman has at least even odds to hold this seat unless the SALT cap becomes a major issue. There is not only a Republican base here, but a functioning R machine that endures when Frelinghuysen leaves. A lot of normally R voters will vote D this year but not sure enough to flip it. We'll see. This will be on the more interesting elections.

This district dislikes trump health care gop culture wars and the tax bill

wtf is the republican going to campaign on if all 4 of these things are unpopular in the district?

The same things he's campaigned on every two years since 2007 and/or the same things Karen Handel campaigned on in a similar district.

Trump got 52% in Webber's district. Webber got ~56% (as a percentage of ballots cast) in the worst year for NJ Republicans since 1989. He is a talented politician. This remains a toss-up, but will now be one of the premier matchups of 2018, with two very qualified and very likable candidates. I am confident that the district would be well-represented by either candidate.

Has Webber even said he’s running?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't think Appropriations is as salient here as it is in the Midwest or South. This is not a district where people really care about the federal government providing their livelihood.

(I have close family in affluent bits of NJ-7 who formerly lived in similar parts of NJ-11).

I think it’ll be a pretty close race, but the national environment should be enough to make this seat flip despite Webber’s candidacy (although had we not lucked out with such a strong Democratic recruit, this would probably be a very near-miss along the lines of PA-6 in 2006).  However, if Webber wins, I can count on one hand the Democrats who could even have a chance of unseating him despite Trump being on the ballot (there are like three, if that).  This is an important race since Webber is the type who could get entrenched very quickly and we may well not get another shot here until he leaves office.  

Seats like this one, WA-8, Ed Royce’s open seat, Issa’s open seat, CO-6, PA-6, PA-7, MI-11, VA-10, MN-3, and TX-7 are gonna be crucial since (unlike somewhere like NC-9, Dave Brat’s seat, KS-2, and WI-6, all of which I think we’ll pick up btw) losses in such seats dramatically narrow the path to flipping the house by increasing the extent to which we have to rely on flips in less friendly territory and/or the sorts of freak upsets that inevitably occur during in the House during large wave years.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think a solid R Assemblyman has at least even odds to hold this seat unless the SALT cap becomes a major issue. There is not only a Republican base here, but a functioning R machine that endures when Frelinghuysen leaves. A lot of normally R voters will vote D this year but not sure enough to flip it. We'll see. This will be on the more interesting elections.

This district dislikes trump health care gop culture wars and the tax bill

wtf is the republican going to campaign on if all 4 of these things are unpopular in the district?

I had to Google this to see if this was serious. My heart sinks to know that it is.

Wow...