OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there.

What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself.  Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there.

What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself.  Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not.

Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them.

Look, I've done quite a bit of work with actual victims of domestic violence.  If you don't like the way I was talking to you then maybe you should stop trying to smear people you disagree with by peddling false allegations of domestic violence.  That's about as low as it gets and if you keep doing it then I'm gonna keep calling you out on it.  Among other things, incredibly disrespectful to the actual victims of domestic violence who spend their days trapped in a living Hell on earth.  And like Gustaf said, if you were really just mentioning this with no ulterior motive, you'd have provided the context (but of course, that would've made it obvious that this was a baseless smear campaign by Mandel).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there.

What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself.  Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not.

Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them.

Look, I've done quite a bit of work with actual victims of domestic violence.  If you don't like the way I was talking to you then maybe you should stop trying to smear people you disagree with by peddling false allegations of domestic violence.  That's about as low as it gets and if you keep doing it then I'm gonna keep calling you out on it.  Among other things, incredibly disrespectful to the actual victims of domestic violence who spend their days trapped in a living Hell on earth.  And like Gustaf said, if you were really just mentioning this with no ulterior motive, you'd have provided the context (but of course, that would've made it obvious that this was a baseless smear campaign by Mandel).

Cool you've worked for Domestic violence victims, i commend you for that, but nothing you've said is right here. It isn't a smear, its a legitimate point. Why should I have to provide context? the context is everywhere? no one provides deep context on everything.

Heres the problem with you, Sherrods your god, great, I think hes going to win, I've said it over, but to claim this is made up by mandel or some smear by me is ridiculous. You clearly aren't as smart as you think you are.

Lets look at the facts.
This claim was made (not once but twice in legal documents about browns alleged violent tendencies)
I, nor mandel, didn't make it up.

You can argue over WHETHER it should be used, sure, but to claim it is a fabrication is just outrageous, and shows a complete inability to look at anything objectively. Heck, I'm not the first person to bring it up on Atlas as its been mentioned in the past more than once. It is not my duty to sit there and talk to death and provide context to every single negative about every single candidate, nor is it your duty to personally levy attacks on something that IS a legitimate issue were he to run for president.

The fact that you have done little more than squawk incessantly like a parrot over and over that it's a legit point, Ask! Little troll wants a cracker it's a legit point, makes your point no more Salient than when you started about 30 posts ago. Seriously, either put up with some actual facts Beyond well maybe it happened because it was once accused even though people actually on this forum have spoken with the people involved and to corroborate their public denials, then STFU while the grown-ups talk.

Seriously. This isn't about not wanting here alternative views. This is about wanting to hear an actual coherent point rather than some rain man like repetition of it's a legit point for a full freaking page of the Forum now.

Who on this forum has actually spoken to the accusers specifically? you? JDB? no. they've issued soft denials in the past publicly and said they've reconciled, but no one ever said "I lied in my court documents about Sherrod Brown attacking me"

This has been discussed to death, Sherrod brown has been accused of domestic violence by his ex wife, his ex wife later said "it was a heated divorce and things get said." Sherrod Brown was later alleged to have physically assaulted his ex-wife's husband (back when he was SOS i want to say) this too was not specifically recanted by the victim, however the victim chose not to press charges. I am happy he has reconciled his differences with his ex-wife and her family, but it doesn't mean the allegations just disappear from being relevant to a discussion about a possible presidential run. Yes, here in Ohio, they've been used (and not used) in campaigns against Sherrod Brown, but to the voters in the other 49 states they've never been heard before. Something like that is a potential problem when running a presidential campaign. And mentioning this problem doesnt make me a troll, a liar, a fabricator, or disgusting in anyway. All I'm doing is bringing up actual possible roadblocks to a presidential run by Sherrod Brown, when that was discussed in this thread. I compare it to George Bush's "draft dodging" allegations which were talked to death in 1994, doesn't mean they werent legitimate roadblocks for his run in 2000

Actually, all the allegations were made by the ex-wife and have since repeatedly been specifically denied by her in clear and uncertain terms, but thanks for playing  Oh and only one candidate besides Mandel has tried to use this nonsense and that sleezebag was widely criticized for it too.  Anyway, with something like blatantly false allegations of domestic abuse, you kinda do have a duty to provide context when bringing it up.  And this isn't like the Bush draft-dodging allegations; it's more like the whisper campaign in 2000 alleging that McCain's adopted daughter was really a black love child.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mandel's getting endorsed by Posobiec and Thernovich.

Seen here: Two Nazis endorsing their pet rat's Senate campaign.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Franklin County GOP endorsed businessman Michael Gibbons over sitting Treasurer Josh Mandel by a vote of 85-16. Quite surprising and a bad look for Mandel. Over the past 40 years or so, only 2 candidates not endorsed by the Franklin County GOP have gone on to win statewide primaries.

LOL

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Franklin County GOP endorsed businessman Michael Gibbons over sitting Treasurer Josh Mandel by a vote of 85-16. Quite surprising and a bad look for Mandel. Over the past 40 years or so, only 2 candidates not endorsed by the Franklin County GOP have gone on to win statewide primaries.

I dont think it shows him gaining momentum, it just confirms what many suspect, that he's been a Kasich plant this whole time.

I think it just further demonstrates how much everyone hates Mandel

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If I were Brown I'd rather be running against investment banker Gibbons than Mandel.

You have to be an Ohioan to truly understand just how hated Mandel is here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

While I think Mandel is a complete PoS, I hope his wife is okay and gotta give him credit for doing the right thing here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ken Blackwell would be a formidable candidate, he'd do well in the suburbs, but Sherrod Brown would win 60%-40%.

ROTFL

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race.

TL;DR:

Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump.

Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in.

Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman.

Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering.

Sources close to Johnson say he is not running, a name to keep an eye on is State Senator Matt Huffman, who came close to pulling the trigger against mandel, and apparently has a bunch of donors lined up for a senate president bid.

But why trade a state-senate president bid for a surefire loss in a Senate race?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ohio posters, how bad (or good) would it be for Republicans if Gibbons actually ends up as the nominee?

Gibbons is a joke. Hes been a pay as he goes candidate with a dismally weak staff and crappy poll numbers. He's a lousy public speaker and has hidden Kasich ties. He could drag down the whole GOP slate.

This aside from the last sentence.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million.

This.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million.

This.

Furthermore, I'd like to point out that I for one always found Mandel a solid contender. (Even though I've also always though Sherrod was favored.) He was Trump before Trump.

Let’s not get carried away, Mandel was a horrible candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Renacci's entry will not change my Lean D rating, at least not right away. Brown will start out with a massive fundraising advantage and several months head start on campaigning for this particular race. I will of course be watching for actual polling to further clarify the state of the race.

As of right now I’d put Brown at 65-70% chance of being re-elected. May be more likely to rise than fall.

I'd say 85-90% chance.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency.

Also he’s no more of an Ohio than Hillary is an Arkansan.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency.

Also he’s no more of an Ohio than Hillary is an Arkansan.

or a new yorker.

Actually, I'd argue Hillary has a far stronger claim to being a New Yorker than Vance does to being an Ohioan at this point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rand Paul endorses Mike Gibbons.

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/964206767436480513?s=12

lolwut

LOL

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think we're underestimating Renacci. I still think Sherrod will win in the end at the moment, but Renacci is adopting a very Trumpy message, and that could siphon a fair number of votes away from Brown's blue-collar appeal.

Trump’s schtick only works if the other candidate is more hated than the bubonic plague.  I don’t think folks realize how much many Ohioans hated Hillary; I didn’t even canvass for her campaign b/c I was worried that my contempt for her would come through.  She just did not play well in the cultural Midwest.  Even Franklin County was overflowing with Democrats like me who were only voting for her because of how bad Trump was; don’t let the machine-dominated primary fool you.  Hillary was almost as much of an anathema to cultural Midwesterners as she was to blue-collar WWC folks (the media often mistakenly conflates the two although there is *some* overlap in certain places), but for very different reasons (the percieved insincerity and lack of likability hurt with cultural Midwesterners while with the WWC there was a lot more sexism and redirected anger at Bill Clinton in the mix).  Trump did not play well outside of the blood red rural areas and certain WWC areas, many Republicans held their noses and voted for him while many Democrats didn’t turnout for Hillary (a big overlooked story in Ohio), it’s just that Hillary came off even worse.  Ohio likes its statewide Republicans to *sound* inoffensive, civil, and non-threatening when they’re saying horrible things (think Patton Oswalt’s Starbucks bigot bit).  Kasich (ironically a notoriously nasty individual in private) and Husted are great examples of this.  Renacci - like Mandel - took the wrong lesson away from 2016.  Someone like Biden, Brown, pre-scandal Franken, etc would’ve carried Ohio by high single-digits. 

That said, I think Sanders would’ve only done 1-2 points better than Hillary here at best and could’ve easily done even worse.  Turnout would’ve been much worse in Franklin County, he’d have done much worse in Hamilton County, and I suspect we’d have seen even lower African-American turnout across the country (including in Ohio).  The path to victory in Ohio that year was a straight white guy with blue-collar appeal whose style didn’t offend the cultural sensibilities of affluent, highly-educated suburbanites.  At this point, Berniecrats and educated, affluent suburbanites need each other to get anything done (i.e. take back Congress).  The latter group needs to accept that socially liberal, fiscally conservative corporate attorneys are not gonna play well in places like ME-2 and the former need to stop reflexively opposing anything the “establishment” does.  Sometimes establishment backed candidates really are the best person running (ex: Gil Cisneros and Steve Horsford), but I digress.

The point is that no one really hates Sherrod Brown, not even your average OH Republican.  If I had to summarize how most Ohioans see Sherrod (another thing, how many other Senators are often referred to by their first name by their constituents?) it’d be “he’s one of us, fighting for us.”  He even got endorsed by a Republican County chair in a decently-sized county in 2012.  He has a strong personal brand completely separate from the Democratic Party.  Plus he comes across as a very blue-collar, down-to-earth guy whereas Renacci is basically a rich some dude who bought his way into Congress in a Republican wave year.  He was always a notoriously weak incumbent with poor constituent service and most were surprised the Republicans threw Austria to the wolves rather than him (my guess is that either Gibbs or Renacci was saved by geography, both wasted no time developing reputations for extreme lazyness and general incompetence, respectively). 

Honestly, I don’t even think Renacci has a path to victory given the current environment (although he’s arguably a step up from the boy blunder a.k.a. Josh Mandel and both are “stronger” than Vance would’ve been).  I strongly suspect this will be right on the border between Likely D and Safe D by Labor Day.  Renacci probably would’ve lost even in a Hillary midterm (as would Mandel, but he wouldn’t be the nominee since Kasich would ascendant in such a scenario), but someone like Husted or Stivers would’ve easily won.  As it stands, Husted, DeWine, Kasich, Taylor, Tiberi, Stivers, Faber, Yost, Huffman, etc all chose not to run for Senate b/c Republicans simply weren’t gonna pick this seat up during a Trumpterm and everyone knew it.  Even Renacci initially ran for Governor

TL;DR: The reason the nomination was left to the likes of Mandel and Renacci is that everyone knows there’s no path to victory against Brown this cycle barring some massive unforeseeable scandal which while you never know with these people (exhibit A: Al Franken, exhibit B: Roy Moore, never would’ve guessed either in a million years), is probably a bit less likely with Brown than your average politician.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.

Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked.

Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse?

Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian.

wasn't the Kasich team support for Gibbons mainly an anti-Mandel thing, since Renacci was running for Governor not Senate until last month?  Renacci is a Main Street Partnership guy.

Renacci’s membership in the MSP is a joke. He’s very Trumpian.

To be fair, the entire MSP is kind of a joke at this point