Competitive House Predictions: MN-02 to NV-04

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MN-02: Angie Craig (D)
MN-03: Erik Paulsen (R)*
MN-08: Rick Nolan (D)
MT-AL: Ryan Zinke (R)*
NE-02: Brad Ashford (D)
NV-03: Jacky Rosen (D)
NV-04: Ruben Kihuen (D)

*Like David Young (IA-3), Todd Young's open seat, and Darrell Issa, both Zinke and Paulsen's seats could easily flip if there is a medium-to-small Democratic wave in the House.  Zinke is a pretty over-hyped incumbent facing a strong challenger and he's acting like he's seeing some bad internal polling (despite the one internal he released showing him winning by a lot, and btw, the Democrat immediately responded with her own internal showing her trailing by two points).  I think Zinke has a small lead, but his opponent has the momentum and is probably only behind by like 4-5% (if that).  This could be one of those random wave upsets no one really sees coming, imo.  Paulsen is really vulnerable if things get toxic for Republicans for more obvious reasons and I almost picked Bonoff to win, but I'm airing on the side of caution since he's a pretty strong incumbent.  I may change my prediction to Bonoff depending on how next week goes for the Republicans.