Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[AndyHogan14]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

I find it hilarious that Hillary Clinton is randomly on the list as well.

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1503752794158911493?s=20&t=VBC552r...

[AndyHogan14]

Putin: Ukraine not serious about finding acceptable solution

Ukraine is not willing to accept complete capitulation?! How dare they!
-Vladimir V. Putin (probably)

[AndyHogan14]

I saw videos of Abkhazian and South Ossetian Forces mobilizing and getting on trains earlier today. Putin is getting desperate. He really needs Belarus to enter the war but for whatever reason Lukashenka has refused so far.

If Lukashenko fully commits his troops, Ukraine may not be the first Eastern European state to fall.

And if Lukashenko falls (or looks like he is going to), then Russia will either have to pull troops out of Ukraine to prop him back up or let Minsk fall into the hands of anti-Putin forces.

[AndyHogan14]

I am hearing murmurs on Twitter about a Ukrainian counter-attack near Kyiv and that it is possible that the Russians have been driven out of Irpin. I have also seen people talking about a counter-attack in the east (both east of Kyiv and further east around Kharkiv), but no word on whether or not the Ukrainians have found any success there. Hoping to see some confirmation from official and independent sources now that the sun is up in Ukraine.

[AndyHogan14]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

I agree on this point.  Ukraine should not give an inch on its ability to defend itself in the future.  

On the flip side, I think Ukraine's demand for Western security guarantees is a mistake.  It put Ukraine in a position vis-a-vis the West that it wishes to avoid with Russia.  If Ukraine wants the West to promise a military intervention in case of a future invasion from Russia, a nuclear power, then the West would then want to control Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy to make sure that Ukraine does nothing to provoke that conflict which could put the safety of the West at risk. It is unwise for Ukraine to cede that much power and control to anyone, Russia or the West.

I still think the deal should be
a) Constitutional neutrality for Ukraine with a de facto understanding that Ukraine joining any alliance or having foreign troops on its solid without Russian permission would mean another Russian invasion
b) Russian as a second official language in Ukraine
c) Ukraine accept Crimea as part of Russia**
d) The two Donetsk republics rejoin Ukraine as autonomous regions

**Only after a free and fair referendum on the subject.

Russian as a primary language of the country is likely a non-starter politically (hell, I am seeing anecdotal stories about Russian speakers are switching to Ukrainian as a form of protest). If the Donbas is to be given autonomy, it should only be within the previous line of control. I don't think the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that remained under Ukrainian control should be subject to the crazies that have been in control of the "DPR" and "LPR" over the past eight years.

[AndyHogan14]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

If this deal happens, hypothetically, do the sanctions end?

I think that depends on the status of the Donbas and Crimea, something that I haven't seen too much about in terms of the chatter related to this possible deal.

[AndyHogan14]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate "government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

Coup? Russian false flag operation? Military exercises? Let's hope for the coup! 🤣

[AndyHogan14]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

If this deal happens, hypothetically, do the sanctions end?

I think that depends on the status of the Donbas and Crimea, something that I haven't seen too much about in terms of the chatter related to this possible deal.

Russia will never agree to cede control of those.

I disagree with you on the Donbas (I don't think Russia really cares about them), but the only way I see Crimea going back to Ukraine is due to regime change in Moscow. With that said, I cannot imagine that Ukraine would accept a deal in which they formally renounce any claim to Crimea and certainly not the Donbas. Since I was talking about the sanctions being lifted, I feel as if there has to be some resolution in those two territories to go back to some semblance of normalcy.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1504507707629395970?s=20&t=r-0eBJpFY8...

Read a few other reports confirming this; if true, it not only increases the chances of a possible assault to liberate Kherson but also strengthens the defenses of Mykolaiv and reduces the chance of the city being surrounded by Russian forces.

And pushes back when any kind of assault on Odesa could possibly happen (if it ever comes). The Russians need to take Mykolaiv to have any realistic chance of taking Odesa.

[AndyHogan14]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/putin-is-likely-to-make-nuclear-threats-if-war-drags-u-s-says?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab#l0vog8o0374sqrenlh8

This article suggests US intelligence believes Putin may begin threatening nuclear strikes against Ukraine or even the West the longer his war continues.

I saw that earlier...you have to hope that there would be a palace coup in the event of Putin ordering a nuclear strike. If not, we will have no choice but to go in, clear Ukraine of all Russian troops, and figure out a special operation to take out Putin.

[AndyHogan14]

Interesting thread. Whenever this ends, unless Russia repents in the same way that Germany eventually did after the Second World War, the Ukrainian hate towards Russia will last generations.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1505265888563453959?s=20&t=u_0KwyStN12...

[AndyHogan14]

Soooo...the Russians are planning on attacking western diplomats in Lviv.
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1505289250387943425?s=21

[AndyHogan14]

NYT says stalemate, Russia cannot take Kiyv and Odessa, so Russia is now digging into and fortifying the real estate that it has taken, and is blasting away at the cites from afar, that Ukraine cannot stop.*

*today to add to yesterday's destruction of the theater where 1,300 were taking refuge, it was a drama school were 400 were hiding

"Here are the latest developments in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate after more than three weeks of fighting, with Russia making only marginal gains and increasingly targeting civilians, according to analysts and U.S. officials.

“Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war,” the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research institute, said in an analysis. Russians do not have the manpower or the equipment to seize Kyiv, the capital, or other major cities like Kharkiv and Odessa, the study concluded."

...

"With Mr. Putin determined to pummel Ukraine into submission, Russia’s failure to achieve its initial objectives could presage an even deadlier phase of the war defined by large-scale casualties."

...

"Ukraine continued to effectively hold its airspace, British defense ministry said, forcing Russia to largely rely on weapons launched from the "relative safety of Russian airspace."

Another story farther down in the updates is that Ukrainian opinion is not limited to hating Putin, it is also anti-Russian. They perceive that Russians support this. Whatever Russia holds will be very hard to govern absent mass deportation. And then there is the fleeing of young Russian professionals by the hundreds of thousands, many to Armenia and Georgia, perceiving that their escape window might close at any time.


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/20/world/ukraine-russia-war

Seems more like the Russian will on most front wait out the mud season and launch a new offensive by late May. Seems prudent considering their inability to advance merely on the highways at the moment

I don’t know. All waiting does is allow the Ukrainians to fortify even more and give the west more time to send in more weapons (hopefully offensive weapons too). Also, the political environment in Russia isn’t going to get better over time. In the end, however, Russia may have no choice but to wait it out until May considering how abysmally they have performed thus far.

[AndyHogan14]

If this is true, I would love for them to remain quiet about it.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1505597537650155525?s=20&t=9PHABl...

I am very much looking forward to the day when I wake up and see something similar to this regarding Putin.

[AndyHogan14]

I wonder when Russian casualties will exceed those of the Soviet Afghan war

If the Ukrainian numbers are to be believed, then they are pretty much there now. Based on the western assessments, then I would say three to four more weeks.

[AndyHogan14]

Just an incredible video—damn the Ukrainians good at war time propaganda.
https://twitter.com/Nikolay_Nikolov/status/1505586549618008070?s=20&t=f0bw02...

[AndyHogan14]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/598940-psaki-says-biden-will-not-go-to-ukraine-during-europe-trip

Not surprising that Biden will not be going to Ukraine. With that said, if he does end up going, I assume that no one will know until he is actually there (or even after he has gone and come back).

[AndyHogan14]

This is a great time for Moldova to kick Russian troops out of Transnistria.

As great as that would be, I am not sure Moldova has the active forces to take out the Transnistrian and Russian forces. With that said, if Ukraine ends up with a victory, I would support Ukraine going in* and helping Moldova clear out their territory of Russian forces. Having Russian forces (however small) in Moldovan territory is not good for the national security of Ukraine.

EDIT: *Only if Moldova asks Ukraine, of course.

[AndyHogan14]

IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas.  

It seems Italy is "not inclined" to pay RUB for Russian gas.  If Russia and Italy do not back down this will lead to Italy w/o Russin gas.  I guess the good news is Spring is coming soon so Italy's demand for Russian gas will be lower.

It seems like this might be the push some EU countries need to stop buying Russian gas. This could very well end up being an "own goal" for Russia if countries like Germany and Italy refuse.

[AndyHogan14]

If Shoygu is "unwell" then who is actually in charge of moving this trainwreck? https://twitter.com/ALanoszka/status/1506720788489121801

You know, being pushed out of a window is notoriously bad for one's heart.

[AndyHogan14]

I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

[AndyHogan14]

I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

I think you are geographically confused.  Check Google Maps.  I am assuming you mean that the highest priority for Ukraine is to push the Russians back across the Dneiper from Kherson, and prevent them from re-establishing a foothold on the western bank from which they can then attack Odessa overland.  

I suspect he's referring to the whole of Kherson Oblast, not just the city. Both routes to Crimea go through Kherson Obl.

Yes, I was talking about the whole oblast (more specifically the roads coming to/from Crimea). Of course, retaking the city itself is critical when it comes to retaking the whole region. I don't know what resources they have in the south, but if they can indeed block Crimea, that could turn the whole war in the south.

EDIT: If they do not have the capability to retake large swaths of the oblast back, the city itself would be a major gain and would keep Odesa safe while also being a huge PR coup.

[AndyHogan14]

Ukraine has announced that it'll shoot down any Russian military planes headed toward Transnistria: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3451569-ukraine-to-down-russian-military-aircraft-flying-to-transnistria-general-staff.html

Transnistria is probably finished.

If Moldova has the capability, they should take back Transnistria as soon as possible.

[AndyHogan14]

Another pro-Russian post from you, surprise.

I actually found this retired General on CNN more informative than a thread full of batsh**t crazy Twitter celebrations of misinterpreted meaninglessness whilst 1,000's of Ukrainians lose their lives daily.

It's not pro-Russian. Just trying to get an accurate read on where this is going without the horrendous bias the media puts on everything.

People are getting minced here.

Don't get me wrong, I absolutely want to see an end to the slaughter and bloodshed ASAP.

But one side has by far the most ability to make that happen - yes, I do mean the invader.

The invader winning wouldn't end the bloodshed, it would just start the full-blown genocide of the Ukrainian people and the ethnic cleansing of the country. The only way the bloodshed ends is if the Ukrainians win.

[AndyHogan14]

How do you buy these stamps?

They'll become collectibles one day.

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1514595550011838466

This is the website that I was directed to from the main Ukrposhta site when I wanted to buy something from them: http://pm.ukrposhta.ua/nishop.php

The website is running extremely slow and timed out multiple times before I could place an order (I wonder if they are getting overloaded by people that want the stamps). They didn't take any payment and wouldn't until my order was about to be fulfilled, so 🤷🏻‍♂️