Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[AndyHogan14]

Seeing some people commenting on Twitter (so take this with a HUGE grain of salt), that it is (was?) Russia's plan to reinstall Yanukovych as president of whatever is left of Ukraine after all of this. The Russians cannot possibly be **that** stupid, right? It's one thing to put someone in power from the opposition that people do not have any real strong feelings towards, but that guy? If Yanukovych is eventually reinstalled, he wouldn't last a year.

[AndyHogan14]

Russian Ministry of Defense claims 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers killed, 498 Russians.

https://twitter.com/DrAlakbarov/status/1499073100067000320

I believe the Ukrainian figures are inflated, but they are far more believable than this...

[AndyHogan14]

Has anyone else seen this story about a Russian oligarch supposedly putting a bounty on Putin? How seriously should I take this?

If true, I'll throw in a hundred bucks...let's start a GoFundMe! LOL

Hell, I'll throw in a thousand if Putin goes the way of Ghaddafi.

[AndyHogan14]

Apparently a Romanian fighter went missing over the Black Sea. They sent a helicopter to do a search and rescue and that went missing too...

It could be a result of bad weather conditions, but the timing this incident raises alarm bells.

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1499115003579932675

**TWO** aircraft going down? One, sure, but two due to weather? That seems unlikely and if the Russians had anything to do with it...oh boy.

[AndyHogan14]

Anonymous Continuing the Cyberwar Against Russian Aggression:

https://twitter.com/LatestAnonPress/status/1499218376723476481?s=20&t=BBHxbB...

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1499409342197608450?t=CDPHtHLsmXx6OMHBWL...
I'm starting to think that Putin has actually gone insane.

The fact that he brought up the insane idea that the Ukrainian government is run by Nazis with Macron suggests that he actually believes that garbage. That is a bit scary and proof that he's definitely gone off the deep end—hopefully the FSB or someone in his inner circle sees the writing on the wall and takes him out.

[AndyHogan14]

In addition to the questions of "will BDS actions cripple the Russian war machine's ability to fight before Ukraine succumbs?", we must ask:

1. Is a 1-2% chance of hundreds of millions dead in nuclear war should NATO directly intervene via institution of a no-fly zone worth preventing an >80% chance of the Russian military murdering tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians in cold blood?

2. If yes to #1, do we want to place faith in the Russian General Staff to refuse relaying any launch signals to their submarines should Putin throw a hissy fit and goes full I Am Legend?

I can admit I am too much of a coward to answer those questions. I can only hope our leaders are up to the task.

If this was just about now, it isn’t but I think it is.

I agree. If Putin gets away with what he is doing in Ukraine, what is stopping him from going into Moldova next? Then deciding he can go after the Baltic States? There is going to have to be a confrontation at some point and I think that MAD will stop the war from going nuclear, but even a 1% chance is a frightening proposition.

[AndyHogan14]

Interesting, would fit with the reported rise in the use of airpower. Could be a risk.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1499487368411332612?s=20&t=t6uI4nC72pH...

They possibly have more unguided bombs, but that increases the chance of a) being shot down as you need to get closer, b) missing entirely or c) hitting civilian targets.

This lines up with some of what was said in the Twitter thread from Riho Terras a few days ago. He said that they have a limited amount of rockets and will have to use them sparingly going forward. He also felt that the Russians would be forced to (legitimately) negotiate a peace settlement after around 10 days due to lack of money/supplies. Let's hope he's right on that last point.

[AndyHogan14]

Lindsey Graham calls for Assassination of Putin

WTF... Don't even know where to start on this.

Apparently he doesn't understand the concept of WWW III and what calling for killing leaders of other countries actually means?

Well, one of the absolute best outcomes of this conflict would be the death of Putin, so Graham is not wrong here. In many ways, our sanctions are meant to influence the Russian elite to take him out.

[AndyHogan14]

Feels like we've gotten little to no updates about the situation in Ukraine itself since the Zaporizhzhia plant. And outside of the plant, there didn't seem to be much yesterday either.

I'm operating under the assumption that that is (for the most part) a good thing. Although, I did hear that the situation in Mariupol is especially dire—hopefully they can get some humanitarian aid into that city.

EDIT: I also saw unverified reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are going on the offensive around Kharkiv. Hopefully they will be successful there and that, in turn, could help relieve some of the pressure in the south.

[AndyHogan14]

God I hope this is true: I am seeing some people claiming that the Zaporizhia plant is back in Ukrainian hands (per the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs).

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1499975986452082689?s=20&t=BpOOjuqhbr...

[AndyHogan14]

If the Ukrainians have Zaporizhzia back, it won't do them much help unless they can also use its power (something they evidently consider too risky right now).

I'm thinking more for the well being of everyone around the plant (and the wider world) that nuclear facilities should be in the hands of the Ukrainians as opposed to the inept and malicious Russian troops.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/farhip/status/1499948364988829700?s=21
Russia rushing headlong into totalitarianism.

You're saying this as some sort of gotcha, while at the same time Russia Today is kicked off the air in the West, while everyone is feverishly cheering it (see the thread in USGD). Hypocrisy is an allowed rhetorical technique but it sure makes you look dumb when you try to claim the moral high ground.

The Washington Post is neither owned nor run by the US government, but you already know this. You just choose to come in here to constantly spam the same asinine posts. So fuck off, kindly.

^^^^^
What Boobs said.

https://twitter.com/angry_staffer/status/1500156400705617923?s=21
WTF, again.

Not that I want to defend Rubio, but what is the big deal? Zelenskyy has given live addresses from the exact same location to crowds assembled in Tblisi and Prague and it's not like Rubio announced where exactly he is. Also, it was known last night that Zelenskyy would be addressing members of Congress.

[AndyHogan14]

And.... resistance begins in Russian Occupied Kherson per Washington Post:

Pro-Ukrainian protests break out in war-torn Kherson

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/05/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-CJR7RAK4KJFHBN2ONPSHYYCHFY

I have been seeing videos of the protests in Kherson and it is heartening to see. I remember seeing a post earlier (not sure when, everything blends together these days), saying that the Russians were planning a fake protest in Kherson (with people from Crimea) that was supposed to demonstrate that Kherson wanted to join up with Crimea/Russia. Seems to me the people of Kherson might have something to say about that.

[AndyHogan14]

I honestly don't see how Ukraine survives as a nation for much longer if it can't accept Crimea and Donbass are lost.

The issue with Russia's demands really isn't the Crimea/Donbas recognition, but the fact that Russia gets to demand who the PM gets to be. Also, what are the borders of the DPR/LPR? Why should Ukraine give up the entirety of those oblasts? The people outside the former line of control clearly have no desire to join the Russian-backed separatist states and it would be particularly offensive to make places like Mariupol to join the DPR considering what they have gone through in this war.

[AndyHogan14]

FYI. The exchange rate for 1 USD is now 155 RUB.

[AndyHogan14]

I genuinely don't know if Ukraine will even exist in a month. The Russians will not accept anything less than their current demands.
 

I am not sure Russia has the manpower to roll over the entire country and deal with the inevitable insurgency. I think their best case scenario at this point is to set up an "East Ukraine" with a puppet leader and commit enough forces to deal with the insurgency there than attempt to take the west. To be honest, I am not even sure that Russia *could* take Western Ukraine at all at this point.

[AndyHogan14]

AFP reports that President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine

This means a peace settlement is possible. Perhaps the Americans will not be so eager to give up their ambitions though and will try to strong-arm Zelensky into revoking this statement.

I still hope both Russia and Ukraine can come to their senses and work out a compromise where Ukraine has constitutional guarantees on being neutral while the two Donetsk Republics return to Ukraine as autonomous regions.  The Second condition is key especially now Russia is now much more dependent on PRC which would be very negative the the idea of independence.  The word independence is a big no no for PRC.  Autonomy yes, independence no.

I would support such a compromise to be honest. Of course while Ukraine may not need to be a part of NATO, Western countries still should definitely be working with the government to further improve the Ukrainian military to prevent future aggression.

Ukrainian neutrality guarantees (and possibly recognition of the Crimea fait accompli) were always a reasonable peace term as long as they were accompanied by Russia disengaging from Ukraine in good faith. We'll see if that "as long as" means anything, I suppose.

In the end though, the west should not, under any circumstances, unfreeze a single penny or lift any sanctions until Russia leaves the entirety of Ukraine—and that includes Crimea. Regardless of whether or not they illegally strong arm the Ukrainians into accepting its loss. The Russians decided to escalate this thing. Because of that, they don't just get to go back to normal until they pay a price and Crimea seems to be a decent enough price to pay.

[AndyHogan14]

The reality is that no state that Russia sets up in the east of Ukraine will be accepted as a state by the vast majority of UN states (see Crimea and the Donbas). A puppet regime in the west/Kyiv will not be accepted by the majority of UN states if there is a functional Ukrainian government in exile and continued resistance within Ukraine itself.

To be fair, wouldn't time (eventually) heal all wounds and what not? Perhaps what might be the absolute best case scenario for Russia is something like the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, where they set up a separatist puppet republic in half of the country with no recognition (except for Turkey itself). And of course, Turkey these days is a relatively standard country (and was even more so before Erdogan went authoritarian)

If you want to keep going with the analogy, the internationally recognized half of Cyprus even went on to eventually join the EU!

Admittedy this is the absolute best case scenario for Russia, which is very unlikely. Also I don't think Eastern Ukranians support Russia anywhere close to the rates that Turkish Cypriots would have supported the Turkish invasion.

Yes, well, one way out would have been a referendum in the Russian speaking areas as to what country they wanted to be a part of, as part of a package where Russia would accept the result as binding, and the balance joined NATO or whatever. But that ship sailed long ago. And now the reality is that some areas of Russia would vote in far greater numbers  to exit and join Ukraine, than the reverse in Ukraine. How would Crimea vote now in a free and fair election?

I feel like a free and fair referendum in Crimea back in 2014 would have been close to 50-50. No Ukrainians or Tatars were going to vote to join Russia and I assume ethnic Russians would be 70-30 in favor of secession. If a referendum were held today, it is hard to tell being that the ethnic Russians have been fed eight years of pro-Moscow propaganda and I am assuming many of the Ukrainians have fled. As far as the Tatars are concerned, I assume that they would vote in overwhelming numbers to return to Ukraine.

[AndyHogan14]

German news sources already report that a member of Lavrov's delegation said there would be "no concessions at all." Probably this meeting is just a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501654121908211715

At this point, it seems clear Russia is only conducting these meetings for propaganda purposes. Russia is using them as evidence at home that they are the side "wanting peace", as part of the brain dead narrative that the war is a defensive "special military operation". 

If I were Ukraine I'd stop playing along with Russia's games and refuse to meet (mentioning how the government is busy defending the country and doesn't have time to be lectured to) until the Russia is willing to offer significant concessions.

Russia's already laid out their red lines: DPR, LPR and Crimea recognition, as well as constitutional neutrality. That is their absolute limit; they won't accept anything less than that.

Also, I'll say it's very easy for us to say Ukraine should be aggressive in neogitations. Keep this in mind: Ukrainian forces are stuggling, and stuggling heavily. Their only way out of this is a negotiated peace.

Again, the west should make it clear that none of the sanctions are going away unless Russia removes its troops from *all* of Ukraine—and that includes Crimea.

[AndyHogan14]

The story is from earlier this morning, but don't believe I've seen it posted yet on this thread.


https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1501930145673744392?s=20&t=zmyKUncEr6Fls...

That seems like a way to anger a bunch of people. It will also likely make people wonder why such a change is necessary for a "special military operation."

[AndyHogan14]

The Kyiv Independent reports a possible Belarussian attack tonight. No clue where exactly this would take place, maybe they would assist in Kyiv area, but what I fear most is a Western Front opening up. That area has a lot of refugees now and while Ukraine has troops over there, they are more concentrated in the East iirc. Would also explain why the bombings of Lutsk and Invano Frankisvk happened last night.

It's 00:45 in Kyiv and 01:45 in Minsk. So I guess this report was wrong? 21:00 is a weird time to start an invasion anyway. The usual time is early morning (see any modern military offensive).

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502316384272924672?s=20&t=fBrjDr5efSO...

If the Belarusians do try and open a front in the west with little or no Russian support (and they don't surrender en masse), they will be routed. I am aware that most of the Ukrainian forces are in the east, but considering the quality of the Belarusian military (and that their morale will be even lower than that of the Russians), I have no doubt that the Ukrainians will be able to push them back with relative ease.

[AndyHogan14]

Update to Belarus' situation. Lukashenko is the physical embodiment of the megalomaniac post-Soviet dictator stereotype, but he's not stupid:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502630211644534787?s=20&t=XaXvZul2p...

It's totally speculative on my part, but I wonder if a large contingent of the Belarusian forces would just surrender en masse once entering Ukraine. Some, I assume, would even be willing to start fighting for the Ukrainians.

[AndyHogan14]

Still a big if, but I wonder whether Ukrainian forces would try to reclaim Crimea in case they're successful in pushing the Russians out of the mainland with increased help from the West? If I were Ukraine, I'd seriously consider to do so.

Would love for them to do so, but the only way that happens is if the government collapses in Moscow. Hope it happens though!

[AndyHogan14]

Once again Estonia is literally the best country on Earth https://www.foxnews.com/politics/russia-ukraine-nato-country-estonia-calls-for-immediate-establishment-of-no-fly-zone

Which brings up the question of what happens if some NATO member with more heft than Estonia goes "rogue" and imposes a no fly zone or something that Putin hates, and then Putin starts shooting missiles into that NATO country. What does Biden or Biden/Boris/Macron do then?

From what I understand, we wouldn't do anything if Estonian (or Polish, Romanian, etc) forces are attacked in/over Ukraine. If Russia attacks a NATO country inside its borders, we would defend them (and would not go beyond NATO's borders).