Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1653815540102709248?s=46
Interesting 🧐

Tweet already deleted. What did it say?

It’s not deleted for some reason the twitter links aren’t working right now but it was showing Russian on telegram saying 100 Russian soldiers have been surrounded in the town of Bilohorivka

Ah.

Bilohorivka actually was recaptured by Russia? I know Ukraine took it back as a result of the September counteroffensive and Russia claimed to have taken it back in February, but I thought that that was supposedly false. Good ol' fashioned fog of war I suppose...

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1653815540102709248?s=46
Interesting 🧐

Tweet already deleted. What did it say?

It’s not deleted for some reason the twitter links aren’t working right now but it was showing Russian on telegram saying 100 Russian soldiers have been surrounded in the town of Bilohorivka

Ah.

Bilohorivka actually was recaptured by Russia? I know Ukraine took it back as a result of the September counteroffensive and Russia claimed to have taken it back in February, but I thought that that was supposedly false. Good ol' fashioned fog of war I suppose...

Bilohorivka was never recaptured. It's been under Ukrainian control since September. They are talking about a recent industrial part that was recaptured by some Russians near the town, supposedly it's supply line there is under fire.

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks.

[AndyHogan14]

A bakhmut encirclement would be interesting . I dont think the Russian MOD would do much to save trapped Wagner troops.

I would assume most would flee if there was any real risk of encirclement and Ukraine would just walk into the parts of the city that they have taken. They certainly would not hold out as long as they did in Lyman. With that said, it would be glorious if the ZSU were able to encircle the city without Wagner mercenaries being able to retreat...

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1663121991103127553?s=20

Well, the Motherland Monument, which, in a way, is seen as a protector of Kyiv is facing Moscow and the east, not the west. It too was designed by the Soviets.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1664275063103950848?s=12
😗

Now this is interesting. It would be nice to finally rid the world of the Russian-occupied territory known as Transnistria once and for all.

[AndyHogan14]

https://news.yahoo.com/macron-opposes-putin-arrest-needed-224200966.html

"Macron opposes Putin’s arrest if he is needed for ‘negotiations’"

He added that Russia "has lost any legitimacy," but stated that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails to achieve its military objectives, it would be necessary to "evaluate the nature of future European support for Ukraine."

Macron seems to imply that if the upcoming Ukraine counteroffensive does not succeeds then it is time to wind down the war, as least from EU aid to Ukraine point of view.

I have to imagine these words won't be favorably received in Ukrainian-language media...

I don't like it either, however, if the counteroffensive does end up failing then there may be no choice. If they are unable to make a sizable dent in the occupied territories then it seems unlikely that they will ever be able to without a collapse of the current fascist government in Moscow. It is not going to get any easier as time goes on and the occupiers become more and more entrenched.

[AndyHogan14]

https://news.yahoo.com/macron-opposes-putin-arrest-needed-224200966.html

"Macron opposes Putin’s arrest if he is needed for ‘negotiations’"

He added that Russia "has lost any legitimacy," but stated that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails to achieve its military objectives, it would be necessary to "evaluate the nature of future European support for Ukraine."

Macron seems to imply that if the upcoming Ukraine counteroffensive does not succeeds then it is time to wind down the war, as least from EU aid to Ukraine point of view.

I have to imagine these words won't be favorably received in Ukrainian-language media...

I don't like it either, however, if the counteroffensive does end up failing then there may be no choice. If they are unable to make a sizable dent in the occupied territories then it seems unlikely that they will ever be able to without a collapse of the current fascist government in Moscow. It is not going to get any easier as time goes on and the occupiers become more and more entrenched.

I agree some kind of negotiations is inevitable or ought to be if Ukraine's counteroffensive fails. But regardless, we should continue to arm Ukraine and firm it up militarily. It's good for holding back Russia, it's good for employment back home, and while assistance to Kiev is something that absolutely should be subject to the "does it serve American interests" test, the calculation remains very strongly in favor of continuing to give significant assistance, though it will for sure have to decline somewhat probably...

I agree. I think it definitely serves American interests to continue supporting Ukraine to the point that they win or decide to go to the negotiating table. I worry that most of the American public will not feel that way if the whole thing becomes nothing more than a grind-it-out battle of attrition following a failed attempt to take Melitopol or wherever they end up focusing their offensive.

[AndyHogan14]

There’s going to be a civil war in russia if they fail to take Kharkov at Minimum in the next two years.

Then there will be a civil war...the odds of them being able to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast are slim but Kharkiv? Lol.

It's not as fantastical as those that say that they will still end up taking Odesa (Ukraine has a better chance of taking Moscow than the Russians have of taking Odesa), but Kharkiv is a fantasy as well. If they couldn't get it in the opening hours of the war when the ZSU was scrambling, they have no chance now. Hell, they couldn't even put it under siege to start the war!

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1665156432214228998

Good. It is about time the Russian people have started to get a taste of their own medicine. Maybe if they have had to deal with even a fraction of what Ukraine has had to deal with from the beginning, Putin would have gotten the Mussolini treatment by now.

There’s going to be a civil war in russia if they fail to take Kharkov at Minimum in the next two years.

Then there will be a civil war...the odds of them being able to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast are slim but Kharkiv? Lol.

It's not as fantastical as those that say that they will still end up taking Odesa (Ukraine has a better chance of taking Moscow than the Russians have of taking Odesa), but Kharkiv is a fantasy as well. If they couldn't get it in the opening hours of the war when the ZSU was scrambling, they have no chance now. Hell, they couldn't even put it under siege to start the war!

Underestimate the Russians at your own peril

[AndyHogan14]

I don't think this is controversial, but any new military aid to Israel should be contingent on the new aid package to Ukraine passing.

Absolutely not . Aid to either nation should not be made contingent on aid to the other .

Why not? It forces the Putin simps into a concern and tbh Ukraine needs the help more than Israel

Israel is equally as important as Ukraine so no

Whether or not they are equally important has no bearing on the fact that Ukraine needs more help than Israel.

If Israel falls , there literally would be no Jewish nation left on the planet and the humanitarian consequences for Jews would be even worse than if Ukraine had fallen .

Anyway I think both Israel and Ukraine should be funded but people like Forumlurker should stop acting like it would be ok to defund Israel because no it would not be

The issue here is that Israel will likely defeat Hamas and do whatever they want to the Gaza Strip with or without US aide. Sure, US aide will make their job easier (which is why I support aide to Israel), but Ukraine certainly needs US/western aide in order to stay in the fight with Russia.

[AndyHogan14]

I don't think this is controversial, but any new military aid to Israel should be contingent on the new aid package to Ukraine passing.

Absolutely not . Aid to either nation should not be made contingent on aid to the other .

Why not? It forces the Putin simps into a concern and tbh Ukraine needs the help more than Israel

Israel is equally as important as Ukraine so no

Whether or not they are equally important has no bearing on the fact that Ukraine needs more help than Israel.

If Israel falls , there literally would be no Jewish nation left on the planet and the humanitarian consequences for Jews would be even worse than if Ukraine had fallen .

Anyway I think both Israel and Ukraine should be funded but people like Forumlurker should stop acting like it would be ok to defund Israel because no it would not be

The issue here is that Israel will likely defeat Hamas and do whatever they want to the Gaza Strip with or without US aide. Sure, US aide will make their job easier (which is why I support aide to Israel), but Ukraine certainly needs US/western aide in order to stay in the fight with Russia.

I support aid to Ukraine but I dont think its good to make either aid dependent on each other. Make other things dependent on aid passing

I get that, but the US has a long tradition of attaching certain bits of legislation that may not have support from one faction or another to a must-pass bill. As long as both Ukraine and Israel get what they need, I will be perfectly content no matter what kind of politicking had to be done on Capitol Hill to get it done.