Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353

Holy s***. I have long felt that it was interesting that the front near Donetsk city has not moved all that much since February. If the Ukrainians are able to take the airport—territory that fell in 2015—that would put them around 6-7 miles from the Donetsk city center. Again, I am in awe.

Edit: I am now seeing claims that the airport has already been taken by the Ukrainians. If that is true, I am sure visual confirmation will come soon.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353

Holy s***. I have long felt that it was interesting that the front near Donetsk city has not moved all that much since February. If the Ukrainians are able to take the airport—territory that fell in 2015—that would put them around 6-7 miles from the Donetsk city center. Again, I am in awe.

I would be shocked if the Ukrainians are actually making an attempt to retake Donetsk city or the occupied suburbs. I think it's more likely that they are attempting to keep up the pressure on Russian/DPR forces in that area so they can't be redeployed further north. That said, the ability of the Ukrainians to mount simultaneous counteroffensives and supporting actions across multiple fronts is incredibly impressive and speaks to how far they have come as a fighting force since 2014/2015.

Addendum: that said, I didn't think that the Russian military would cease to be an effective fighting force in Kharkiv Oblast within a matter of a week and yet...

I don't expect them to try and push into Donetsk city any time soon (but what the hell do I know), but having Ukrainian forces only six miles away from the city center after seven months of fighting? That has to make the so-called "DPR" forces very nervous.

[AndyHogan14]

I am hearing rumors Melitopol has been evacuated by the Russians.  

Where from personal sources or.... ?

#1 rule of Atlas is to at least attempt to cite sources, so at least we can all have a good time "Unskewing" just like US-GE-PRES POLLS from '16 and '20.  

I saw that too, but it was just from random people on Twitter. As much as I would love it to be true, random accounts on Twitter aren't all too reliable—after all, I was fooled by the Donetsk Airport rumors on Saturday.

[AndyHogan14]

The EU's rush to the East clearly has created some long lasting structural problems, where authoritarian regimes such as Hungary are allowed to be full blown members, while more democratic countries such as Ukraine are likely a long time away from being granted access.

I'm assuming this is likely a result of Deutsche financial interests in the early days after the collapse of the Soviet bloc?


https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1571566253738803209?s=20&t=wk_r77...

This could very well drive a wedge between Poland and Hungary. They’ve often had each other’s back when it came to being punished by the EU so Orban better tread carefully. Poland is, by far, Ukraine’s best friend in the EU.

[AndyHogan14]

Is Crimea really going to be difficult to reconquer? Any other territories that could be difficult too?

The problem is getting there. If they are able to establish a "beach head" of sorts, it won't be any more difficult than anywhere else that the Russians are. This issue is establishing a defensible position on the peninsula. The small bit of land that connects Crimea with the mainland is not very wide and extremely exposed—the key is getting beyond that point.

[AndyHogan14]

Is Crimea really going to be difficult to reconquer? Any other territories that could be difficult too?

The problem is getting there. If they are able to establish a "beach head" of sorts, it won't be any more difficult than anywhere else that the Russians are. This issue is establishing a defensible position on the peninsula. The small bit of land that connects Crimea with the mainland is not very wide and extremely exposed—the key is getting beyond that point.

IMO I do think there's the inconvenient truth that public opinion in Crimea is probably pretty genuinely against returning to Ukraine, unlike the Donbass. Reconquering Crimea almost certainly means partisan fighting similar to what we've seen in the rest of Ukraine, but in the pro-Russian direction.

The question of Crimea arguably gets to the fundamental questions about the nature of the conflict and the nature of peace. Yes, there is this possibility if Ukrainian soldiers struggle to advance into the region and Russia has full intention of defending the peninsula. There however is also the possibility that we see a repeat of Kharkiv and a full route here or elsewhere leads to rapid movement into the region. There is the possibility that those who identify with Russia pack their bags and flee if resistance or living under Ukraine seem like unenviable prospects - more likely if Ukraine intends to treat Crimean residents differently for their 8 years of disloyalty. There is the possibility that Moscow sees Crimea as a bridge too far and believes it can use the attacks on 'Russian Soil' as justification for mobilization or dirty bombs or something else.

But all this still depends upon how Ukrainian leaders think they can end the war. Because this question differs immensely based on whether Putin is still in power, and what his war aims at this point remain. Ukraine's war aims have not changed since day 1: this is her war of independence. Kyiv desires the freedom to move both economically and politically without interference from Russian nationals or their government, recognition of the indivisibility of their territory, the restoration of Ukrainian people to their homes, and the dignity to not be demeaned as 'Little Russians.' These goals are all somewhat intangible but also recognizable - territory is secondary and reparations or other compensation are not priorities. If, like other previous independence wars, some parts of claimed territory steadfast do not want independence, then the breakaway nation may not demand them as recognized parts of their new indivisible state. There is the question of if Moscow would still need an 'off-ramp' as justification for the war, and a process of international recognition over Crimea could be such a route.

What everyone wants to avoid is putting Russia in a position where peace is impossible. Essentially a situation where Ukraine has all her pre-2014 lands, but Russian leaders still see more value in keeping the border hot and launching missiles every now and again like some kind of oversized Hamas. This situation denies Ukraine all of her war aims. It would also likely mean that temporarily holding cities like Belgorod to force a settlement would anger the Kremlin not force her hand. Avoiding this situation is key, and it likely all depends upon who is in power and what is their policy towards Crimea and the progress of the war in the future.

My view on Crimea is that if it is possible, the peninsula should be removed from Russian sovereignty regardless of what the people there want. If being part of Ukraine is too much for the pre-2014 population of Crimea (everyone post-2014 must be deported and anyone that fled should get their property back), then it should have the option of being an independent state, but treaty-bound to never join the Russian Federation. Having Ukraine surrounded by a state that has genocidal designs cannot be allowed.

[AndyHogan14]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheNationalNews/status/1573371234687008768

Can we ...do that?

Well, the UN charter states that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics should be the permanent member of the Council. It says nothing of the Russian Federation (of course it also mentions the ROC and not the PRC as well). So really, any former Soviet member state could claim the USSR seat on the Security Council.

They could put Ukraine up there.

I don't think Ukraine could be seen as the successor to the USSR (nor could Belarus) because they were founding members of the UN despite being part of the USSR. After independence, they just continued their existing membership. The General Assembly could, however, say that any of the other former Soviet republics are the legal successor to the USSR. In fact, one could make the argument that Kazakhstan should have the spot being that it was the last of the Soviet republics to declare independence. It should just take a majority vote in the General Assembly being that that is all it took to switch recognition from the ROC to PRC for China.

[AndyHogan14]

snip

I'm seeing scattered posts (some with videos) on protests in Dagestan as well. It would make sense that the people there would be 1) targeted for mobilization and 2) vehemently opposed to mobilization considering that the population is only around 3-4% ethnic Russian. Would love to finally see some *real* domestic pushback in Russia and it certainly is not going to come from the ethnic Russians.

[AndyHogan14]

snip

I'm seeing scattered posts (some with videos) on protests in Dagestan as well. It would make sense that the people there would be 1) targeted for mobilization and 2) vehemently opposed to mobilization considering that the population is only around 3-4% ethnic Russian. Would love to finally see some *real* domestic pushback in Russia and it certainly is not going to come from the ethnic Russians.

Well then what do you call the thousands of Anti-War protesters arrested in Moscow and St. Pete then if not "Ethnic Russian"?

Still, generally agree with what I suspect your post intended to state regarding why massive protests are breaking out in certain ethnic populations who had to deal with not only Catherine but then Stalin later on.....

Putin and his fellow elites in the Kremlin and FSB have been *very* careful when it comes to mass mobilizations in Moscow and Leningrad (St. Pete).

A mere sprinkling. The protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg are quite pathetic (and telling of where the Russian mindset is) when you consider the size of those cities. I don't discount the few that have gone out to protest, but most of their fellow Russians are either cowards, indifferent, or supportive of their nation's war.

[AndyHogan14]

How seriously should Putin's nuclear talk be taken at this point?

I have to imagine that he's bluffing. Unless he's completely off the rails, he has to know that using nuclear weapons in this case would lead to the end of his regime. Every country that has tried to be neutral on this conflict thus far (looking at the PRC and India specifically) would likely get off the sidelines and there would probably be a NATO military response. I would assume that the US would also use all covert assets in Moscow (if such assets exist) to eliminate Putin even before the "red button" is pushed. Our intelligence agencies would certainly know, before the fact, if the Muscovites were going to cross that line.

[AndyHogan14]

What will then be the next battle? Where are the eyes of the world focusing on now?

Seems like Kreminna based on chatter on Twitter. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[AndyHogan14]

If the Russians can bring 150,000 Professionally Trained Soldiers/veterans to Ukraine (50%), and additional reservists to free up the professionals already on the ground, then Ukraine is in for some trouble.

Well, I suppose Ukraine is lucky that it is more likely that I be declared emperor of the world than this happening.

[AndyHogan14]

Westerners who pathetically cry for peace always put the burden of seeking peace on Ukraine and the US but never Russia. I wonder why......

Well for one thing Zelensky signed a decree formally announcing the "impossible" prospect of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/ukraine-zelensky-signs-decree-rule-out-negotiation-russia-vladimir-putin-impossible-11664876727245.html

It seems if there going to be a negotiated settlement then one side ruling out talks pretty much makes that difficult to take place.

Well, Putin just recently said that we would not negotiate over Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. To be honest, Putin making that claim shows far more stubbornness than anything Zelenskyy has said. Ukraine, cannot, under any circumstances accept the loss of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. One can make the (false) argument for the Donbas and Crimea, but it is insane to suggest that Ukraine ever renounce their claim to the two southern oblasts.

[AndyHogan14]

I've read some military analysts say that if Kherson proper falls Russia is completely and utterly f[inked], that's the end of all their key supply lines.

It also secures everything west of the Dnipro River. Once Kherson Oblast west of the river is liberated, they can blow the bridges, leave a small force (in case there is a futile attempt to cross the river and to mess with Muscovite supply lines), and then free up the remaining troops to rest, regroup, and then be redeployed to Zaporizhzhia or the Donbas.

[AndyHogan14]

For a good laugh: https://visitkralovec.cz/

Královec is Czechia. After the successful referendum, 97.9% of Kaliningrad residents decided to join Czech Republic and rename Kaliningrad to Královec.

[AndyHogan14]

Seeing chatter on Twitter that Russia may be looking to move from positions in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast to the Kherson front. Time to open up a new front from Zaporizhzhia City to Enerhodar and Melitopol?

[AndyHogan14]

Well, this is interesting.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1578592665129869312?s=46&t=NvGk5r6-yS...

[AndyHogan14]

Nice way to end the day here on the West Coast or start the day in Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1578605334062473216?s=20&t=c8_8rgv...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1578598392779112449?s=20&t=c8_8rgv...
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1578612564443148288?s=20&t=c8_8rgvx...

The Muscovites really need to lay off the cigarettes.

[AndyHogan14]

Hell of a quote from the Estonian PM:

The price of stopping a dictator always goes up. Meeting evil halfway is still a victory for evil.

[AndyHogan14]

Hearing rumors that Belarus may join in the invasion soon.  If so, sounds like it'd be a massive blunder.  I would expect that the army would get bogged down real quick, and in the end it would just lead to regime change in Belarus.

That being said, in the short term it would take the heat off of Ukraine's offensives, which I guess is all Russia can ask for.

I cannot imagine that Lukashenka would actually send in troops at this point. I know he plays the fool, but he really is not that stupid. A non-negligible amount of Belarusian soldiers would immediately surrender (or switch sides) and those that chose to fight would be routed.

I think the Belarusian opposition has been waiting for Lukashenka to get involved militarily to make a move against his regime. At that point, you'd have a ridiculously unpopular war and the dictator would be unprotected by his own military or the distracted Russians. I think he knows this all too well which is why he hasn't sent in his own military. If Belarus was ever going to send in its military, it would have been at the beginning when people were thinking this thing would be over in a week—not now, when it is, at best, a quagmire for Russia.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/Ukraine_War_Map/status/1579726137390862336?cxt=HHwWgMCo2aujq...

Seems your source got bad information
https://mobile.twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1579886984713351169

Also, that's the Wikipedia (SVG) map that can be easily edited if you have Illustrator or any other vector software. The current map posted on Wikipedia has no such bulge towards Lyman and does not consider Kreminna to be contested (yet). (Link). That looks like the October 1st map (link) just with Kreminna listed as contested.

[AndyHogan14]

The Antonivskiy bridge (the one closest to Kherson) has been destroyed:

Strategic bridge near Ukraine's Kherson has collapsed - public broadcaster

The Russians probably detonated it after they completed their retreat from the city itself -make it as difficult as possible for Ukrainian forces to cross the river and begin their campaign to retake the rest of Kherson oblast.  

The situation is such that there probably won't be offenses from either side across the river until there are soldiers on the other side via attacking from the flank. The front closed besides artillery and skirmishes, time to focus on Melitopol.

100%. The Ukrainians are already on the east/left bank of the Dnipro just further north in Zaporizhzhia—so just start from there and push towards Melitopol. Trying to cross at Kherson and risk being stuck against the river on the eastern bank would be foolish.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1591100046635929608?s=20&t=M8SDQaX3UfUia...

Party all night in Kherson!

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/VascoCNN/status/1591370580808417283?s=20&t=MC_Rs0mMUcTM1...

Someone must have started chopping onions when the crowd spontaneously started singing the Ukrainian National Anthem.

[AndyHogan14]

There’s chatter about the Ukrainians contesting the Kinburn Peninsula on the opposite side of the Dnipro/Bug estuary. The peninsula is already (in theory) under Ukrainian fire control after the liberation of Kherson and it would be near impossible for Russia to defend. However, I cannot imagine the Ukrainians trying to move beyond just trying to ensure the shipping lanes from Mykolaiv. With that said, it should tie down the Russians in the area once the inevitable move towards Melitopol happens.

Again, totally unconfirmed other than a cryptic Tweet from the Ukrainian Armed Forces of them in boats crossing the Dnipro.