European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[AndyHogan14]

Soooo, it seems hard remain is doing very well.

Hard leave (ukip + brexit) is underperforming everywhere compared to 2016 ref

The big question mark: of the voters who stuck with con and lab.....are they leavers or remainers?

That is the question, now isn't it? Pro-Remain Parties will definitely have a plurality of the vote once all of the votes are counted, but everything remains muddled because of the non-committal nature of Labour and the general sh**show that is the Tory Party. If I had to guess, I would say a majority of Labour voters are Remainers while a majority of Conservative voters are Brexiteers.

[AndyHogan14]

England and Wales
Hard Remain: 34.8%
(Lib Dems, Greens, and Plaid)
Hard Leave: 36.8%
(Brexit, UKIP)

SNP will likely clean up in Scotland to give "Remain" parties an overall edge. If you assume a majority of Labour voters are remainers and a majority of Conservative voters are Brexiteers, once again, you are looking at a country that is extremely divided over the idea of Brexit.

I remember reading that 3/4 of Labour voters want a second referendum, so if we add that 3/4 to the "Remain" side, would become 45.8% and the "Leave" side would be at 40.4%. The Tory vote is a lot harder to decipher...sure, a majority probably want Brexit, but what is worse to them? A no-deal Brexit or a second referendum?

[AndyHogan14]

England and Wales
Hard Remain: 34.8%
(Lib Dems, Greens, and Plaid)
Hard Leave: 36.8%
(Brexit, UKIP)

SNP will likely clean up in Scotland to give "Remain" parties an overall edge. If you assume a majority of Labour voters are remainers and a majority of Conservative voters are Brexiteers, once again, you are looking at a country that is extremely divided over the idea of Brexit.

You left out CUK

Change UK is in the "other" part of the website that I am looking at, so it is hard to say what they are at across England and Wales. However, they seem to be at around 2.5-3% which would give "Remain" a plurality.

[AndyHogan14]

Great Britain:
With some results from Scotland

Hard Remain: 40.54%
(Lib Dem, Greens, SNP, Change UK)
Hard Leave: 35.11%
(Brexit, UKIP, English Democrats)
Labour: 14.12%
Conservative: 9.09%
Other: 1.13%

If you give 3/4 of Labour to "Hard Remain" as some polls in the past have suggested for remainers within that party, "Hard Remain" then has an absolute majority at 51.13%.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1132794993758941185

Soooo...a plurality in favor of "remain" and a majority against a "hard" Brexit? Sounds familiar.

[AndyHogan14]

Great Britain:
With some results from Scotland

Hard Remain: 40.54%
(Lib Dem, Greens, SNP, Change UK)
Hard Leave: 35.11%
(Brexit, UKIP, English Democrats)
Labour: 14.12%
Conservative: 9.09%
Other: 1.13%

If you give 3/4 of Labour to "Hard Remain" as some polls in the past have suggested for remainers within that party, "Hard Remain" then has an absolute majority at 51.13%.

The BBC is saying that Northern Ireland is going to have 1 DUP, 1 Sinn Féin, and 1 SDLP MEP, which would also be a majority in favor of remain.