Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You're welcome. With that said, unskewing was totally based on the concept of party ID and nothing else. If you are talking about the actual demographics of the election, then that is where polls can end up being wrong. I'm talking about what Gallup did when they assumed that the 2012 electorate would look like 2000. It has nothing to do with party and everything to do with demographics.

But CNN didn't specify anything but self-reported party identification

At least I failed to find demographics. Can you link to it?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Even if the top line is an outlier, there's no excuse for the R nominee having a 15 point advantage on who you trust more on the economy for chrissakes. Particularly, given that the past two R presidents have been utter disasters for the economy, while the past two D's have pulled the economy out from recession into (in one case, the best times this country saw in a generation; in the other case, the best that could have been expected given the massive structural obstructions he faced).

I love that everyone's here is economist, statistician, doctor, psychologist and military expert at the same time. Very educated dudes

538: No, Bill Clinton Does Not ‘Know How’ To Fix The Economy

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

Chuck Todd noted, “Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters."

Is this 2012-style unskewing? Is it a valid critique of the LV model? It's up to you.

Personally, I find it inconceivable that whites with no college degree is going to reverse its long-term decline as a share of the electorate and jump up from one-third to one-half of the electorate.

LOL, just stop this embarrassing. Chuck Todd lied.

It's more like from 36% (in 2012) to 39% (in CNN LV poll). Atlas was complaining in months about Trump appealing to non-college-educated Whites. Now, when non-college-educated started to show much higher turnout (57% in 2012 vs  77% among college-educated Whites), you're complaining: "How could this happen?"

Do you not really see, that Trump is almost perfect fit for this silent majority plurality? You're lucky he's not doing well among women (his incredibly stupid comments ruined it). Othervise, it'd be a f**king landslide. Chill, bro!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Chuck Todd noted, “Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters."

Is this 2012-style unskewing? Is it a valid critique of the LV model? It's up to you.

Personally, I find it inconceivable that whites with no college degree is going to reverse its long-term decline as a share of the electorate and jump up from one-third to one-half of the electorate.

Actually, it's genuine psephology versus a baseless GOP fever-dream/hope. Could the electorate change? Sure it could, is there any justifiable reason why we should expect a collapse in minority and college educated white turnout? No.

Yes. For instance... polls. If some group suddenly starts to say to pollsters that they will go and vote, why should we not believe them [to some degree]?
Polls usually predict turnout pretty good. But yeah, Dems will be like: "Muh 2012, muh Pew"

And it is not about collapse in minority and college educated Whites turnout, no! It is about regain of non-college-educated Whites' turnout. They have incredibly low (57%) turnout. Why is it impossible that they have the same turnout as Blacks (66%) or even college-educated Whites (77%)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Chuck Todd noted, “Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters."

Is this 2012-style unskewing? Is it a valid critique of the LV model? It's up to you.

Personally, I find it inconceivable that whites with no college degree is going to reverse its long-term decline as a share of the electorate and jump up from one-third to one-half of the electorate.

LOL, just stop this embarrassing. Chuck Todd lied.

It's more like from 36% (in 2012) to 39% (in CNN LV poll).

I'm sorry if this was documented further up the thread—can you point out to me where Chuck Todd's math was debunked? Thanks.

Note that the trend for % of non-college-educated whites is that it continually decreases as a share of the population as both education levels and diversity rises. Trump would need to get a relative surge in this population's votes just to hold steady at 2012 levels, much less reverse. 

Sorry, Chuck Todd was right. I got a misstake somewhere in my calculation

I got the following (for LV):

Whites = 73.0%
Non-college-educated Whites = 44.8%

My equation looks like this:
tot = total % a candidate have
White/nonWhite = % among Whites/non-Whites
x = % of Whites

tot = white * x + nonWhite * (1 - x)
tot - nonWhite = (white - nonWhite) * x
x = (tot - nonWhite) / (white - nonWhite)

And by the same method:
whiteTot = total % a candidate have among all whites
colWhite/nonColWhite = % among college Whites/non-college Whites
x = % of Whites
nonColWhite = % of non-college-educated Whites

nonColWhite = (whiteTot - colWhite) / (nonColWhite - colWhite) * x