2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Pericles]

Fitzpatrick did win by less than 2020, huh.

[Pericles]

Shapiro's margin meant nothing for Democrats running on other tickets-it's not like Charlie Baker carried Massachusetts Republicans or JBE got down ballot Democrats over the line. Gubernatorial elections do not reflect the partisanship of a state that well. Senate elections are a bit closer but even then are candidate-specific, it's not like Manchin and Tester have been carrying other Democrats with them.

Republicans would absolutely have flipped these seats if the midterms were a wave at the nationwide level. That is what the midterms were 'supposed' to be-Biden at 40% approval and inflation was the highest in decades, that's certainly a worse starting point than Trump's booming economy in 2018 when he lost 40 House seats. 2022 and these seats went a different way because the Republican Party is so toxic that most swing voters who somewhat disapproved of Biden couldn't bring themselves to vote Republican.

[Pericles]

PA-10 is weird. Consistently votes Democrat for Governor and Senate (2022 I think Fetterman lost it by only a few hundred votes), but yet Perry seems to not have any huge issues, save 2018. And he’s very far right too, which is all the more confusing as to his overperformance. Any other examples in any seats where a relatively extreme House incumbent keeps winning despite the other party doing well in that seat upballot?

It voted for Trump by a few points, so you'd expect a Republican to win there. Pennsylvania Democrats have unusually strong statewide incumbents (and in 2022 still got a great boost from candidate quality).

[Pericles]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

Just more proof that the GOP is given more benefit of the doubt by the public, unfortunately. They literally have been a mess for two weeks straight and their favorability shows it, and yet they're still tied in the GCB.

If you look at the crosstabs, it's because there's a huge portion of Republicans who view their own party unfavorably

Favorability of Democrats in Congress
(among Democrats): 88% favorable / 9% unfavorable
(among Independents): 29% favorable / 52% unfavorable
(among Republicans): 8% favorable / 86% unfavorable

Favorability of Republicans in Congress
(among Democrats): 14% favorable / 79% unfavorable
(among Independents): 21% favorable / 59% unfavorable
(among Republicans): 63% favorable / 31% unfavorable

Wow surprising how popular Democrats are with their voters.

[Pericles]

The iconic Love Actually political ad will always be this one.

[Pericles]

Damn that's a consensus among Independents. Wonder if that's even worse than Congress usually gets.