How badly does the upcoming midterms look for democrats compared to past midterms

[Pericles]

All the other waves Democrats suffered broke late, or at least became obvious late. 2022 is pretty similar to how the 2018 cycle went. 2018 looked like a wave even earlier though, but the odds of losing the House were about the same because Democrats started 19 seats lower. The actual result will look most like 2006 or 1994 because both houses will flip in one election.

[Pericles]

All the other waves Democrats suffered broke late, or at least became obvious late. 2022 is pretty similar to how the 2018 cycle went. 2018 looked like a wave even earlier though, but the odds of losing the House were about the same because Democrats started 19 seats lower. The actual result will look most like 2006 or 1994 because both houses will flip in one election.

Ehh Id say 2018 started looking like a Dem Wave around the same time 2022 stated looking like a GOP wave and that was with the Virginia election's .

Keep in mind Osoff underperformed Hillary in the GA-6 special

Technically yes, but Democrats had big overperformances in all the other House special elections and state legislative special elections from April, if not earlier (by June 2017, Democrats were averaging a 14-point overperformance). Trump's approval was also bad his entire presidency, while Biden's was good until Afghanistan and the Delta wave.