Australia 2022 Election

[Pericles]

Officially projected that the Coalition CANNOT win outright.

[Pericles]

Green now thinks that the Coalition won't be able to form a government.

[Pericles]

On Sky they are suggesting that Labor is on track to win a majority.

My amateur math could see that-looks like they're on a net gain of 5 so far. They need 2 more and plenty of uncalled seats are left. It won't be a Rudd style majority but any majority would be a decent result.

[Pericles]

WA looking like a wipeout at the moment.

[Pericles]

Frydenberg is likely to lose too and then Dutton is the likely Leader of the Opposition.

[Pericles]

Frydenberg's speech sounds like a concession, though he can't officially say it.

[Pericles]

It's neat that Labor got 77 seats, the same as Scott Morrison got last time. One of the amazing facts about this election that I don't think anyone has pointed out is that they won a majority while having a net loss in Queensland and only getting 5 seats there. Of course it wasn't a complete Coalition wipeout there, the Greens made the gains, but Labor did forge a different path to victory.

[Pericles]

Apparently if you are in covid isolation you can ask the operator marking your ballots to draw a penis.
https://twitter.com/AusElectoralCom/status/1531488845858217984

They would have the worst luck. Anyone can just make a tick for the candidates on the ballot, but drawing penises is something that requires a personal touch, and to actually then see it on the paper they're holding.

[Pericles]

Talking about indigenous voice, can someone explain the Uluru Statement from the Heart? Firstly, would the First Nations voice just be an advisory body? And secondly, would it be elected?

I think it's a nice gesture, but the effect could just be slight. Having actual seats in Parliament reserved for First Nations could have a bigger effect and there is precedent for it in NZ, but that is understandably divisive and not the ideal thing to have in a democracy. Hopefully the Uluru Statement is explained well before a referendum to the public, otherwise people could just reflexively reject it.

[Pericles]

An interesting, and surprising, feature of this election is that Labor's vote appears to be more efficient than the Coalition vote now. If the two party preferred vote had tied, Labor would still have 73 seats and the Coalition would have just 62 or 63 (Curtin was the only super close teal win). The teal independents did so well that they reversed the Coalition's vote efficiency. Labor was also lucky with where they got the swings to them, with good performances in the marginal seats and tended to only lose support to the Coalition in seats that were not the most marginal in 2019. A big question will be what happens to the teals, and even the new Green MPs, because otherwise the Coalition could need a 6% swing just to win a majority.

[Pericles]

Of the 19 most educated seats in Australia (based on those where 55% or more, compared to 47% nationwide, have a 'Certificate III' plus skilled worker qualification), the Liberals won 11 in 2019 and just 2 this time. Labor gained two from the Coalition while losing Griffith, all the Green gains and all the Independent gains except for Mackellar happened in this group. It's a pretty dramatic shift to see and Australia really is in line with the rest of the world with higher educated voters now being unfriendly to the right. The two seats left are Berowra and Bradfield, which they held on 60% and 54% respectively. Bradfield did have a teal challenge but must not have been targeted much. Berowra wouldn't be safe either, since seats like Curtin that were 64% Liberal in 2019 were lost. This small group of seats is nearly half of the Liberals losses. The Liberals probably can eventually win without them, but that would be pretty difficult for them in the next election.