Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Pericles]

🍿

This isn't some kind of game.

Doesn’t mean we can’t find it entertaining/exciting. I know I will.

We could be on the brink of something that will change this world forever. Isn’t that something to get your adrenaline running?

The world's better off as it is.

[Pericles]

The big question is whether this encourages other countries to invade and conquer countries or if it is seen as backfiring on Russia. If Ukraine is able to put up a fight, that helps provide a deterrent.

[Pericles]

While I used to be able to sympathize with some of Putin's views on certain issues, now I just can't. Putin is 100% without a doubt a war criminal now and I do not sympathize with war criminals! I still don't support US troops in Ukraine and hope that both sides can find a solution rather quickly, which sadly looks pretty unlikely at this point.

Just thought I'd give my two cents.

 I am trying to restrain myself from hyperbole in asking this, but on what possible issues could one agree with Vladimir Putin on? Serious question.

Bringing stability to your country and raising it up from being an Oligarch dominated disaster zone like Russia in the 1990s or the United States.

Lol, 1990s Russia and the current United States are not at all similar.

[Pericles]

26% of 10% is not really a significant demographic though.

[Pericles]

Western Europeans should know that when you have an aggressive dictator on the Continent, you need to show uncompromising strength and not engage in appeasement. The sovereignty of European nations will only be secure if Russia loses the war or at least grabs bits of Ukraine at a prohibitively high military and economic cost. Putin has gone so far with his aggression that the assumption should now be that if he is removed from power, his replacement would be better, while before February destabilising his regime was less justifiable. The Russian elite would also have an incentive to change the policy if Russia is crippled by the West. If Putin keeps power and doesn't change his policy, the Baltic states and Russia's other neighbours would benefit from a long war in Ukraine where Russia can't just rebuild stronger than ever.

[Pericles]

Macron: Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine

Typical cowardly form that confirms the worst stereotypes about France. The whole point of supporting Ukraine is to make sure the world knows that wars of aggression are harshly punished. That has to be a 'humiliation', or Russia will strike again. These selfish politicians-even people like Macron who aren't up for re election again-only caring about the short-term energy price shock threatens to undermine the whole response. Counting on Britain and the US to allow Zelensky to make his own choices about what, if any, concessions to grant.

[Pericles]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

They did destroy reputation west has around the world. Which is evident as soon as you actualy get out of western countries. Nobody besides west really loves west but the smaller countries and bigger too are dependent on dealing with the west because of their economic power and sometimes military power.

If there’s one lesson to take away from this war it’s that free nations cannot allow themselves to rely on tyrannies for key parts of their economies. It’s past time that the free world become economically self-sufficient.

When it's all said and done only lesson countries should take is that their western friends will defend them but not really defend them. And the price you pay for being western lackey is tens of thousands probably hundreds of thousands at the end killed and a country fully destroyed.

Imagine also using free world not sarcastically

No country can accept being invaded and having its territory taken, and would have to fight against any odds to keep its sovereignty. Ukraine has fought bravely and done very well by keeping most of its territory. 

As a side note, losing tens of thousands is no crippling disaster for a country that lost eight million people in the Second World War to beat an enemy that also wanted to destroy its nationhood and culture (though it was more genocidal).

[Pericles]

Usually that's called annexation or conquest, it's not a mere regime change.

[Pericles]

Yikes.

"Mindful of how Poland was unwilling to let Soviet troops through to help Czechoslovakia  in 1938, Moscow insisted that its Eastern European neighbors allow the Red Army to pass in the event of an attack by Nazi Germany, but was refused." [Gee, I wonder why?]

"The real threat of a war on two fronts left the Soviet Union no choice."

"Thanks to the Soviet-German non aggression pact, the war began on more advantageous borders for the Soviet Union, and hundred of thousands of lives were saved."

But that has been the USSR/Russian position for decades.  Another point they make which they have a point is that Poland actually participated in the partition of Czechoslovakia in Munich in 1938 and annexed territories from Czechoslovakia which included the railway junction city of Bohumín so Poland has no moral right to complain when they became a target of partition between Germany and USSR in 1939.

It's fairly clear that the Molotov-Ribbentrop deal brought additional security to the Soviet Union and Putin is indeed correct to say that it did this.
But the fact he's bringing this up now is very much a tell as to what the current environment in Europe is, right about now.

Not at all, Germany would have struggled much more fighting four countries rather than being able to focus almost entirely on the USSR alone, and their army was actually stronger in 1941 than in was in 1939.

[Pericles]

Ukrainians are (understandably) on a high after their recent victories:

Ukrainians overwhelmingly want to keep fighting – and want Crimea back, survey says; 30% of power plants destroyed: Live updates

McCarthy really said that? What a piece of sh*t. He is such a spineless coward that he can't understand what it's like for people to actually stand up to evil.

[Pericles]

The breakup of the Soviet Union was a disaster for ordinary Russians, unlike them winning WWII (which FDR actually helped with) and so not being outright genocided by Hitler.

[Pericles]

The breakup of the Soviet Union was a disaster for ordinary Russians, unlike them winning WWII and so not being outright genocided by Hitler (which FDR actually helped with).

Not quite sure what you meant by the bolded section mate...

Yeah, FDR did a lot to help the Russian people NOT get genocided, I didn't mean to defame one of the greatest US Presidents.

[Pericles]

Missed this from when it first was publicized but:

https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1640666400610983938?s=20

May they, and many more to come, burn in hell.

[Pericles]

Killing all enemy combatants is a great way to make them fight to the death, this is stupid evil.

[Pericles]

WTF I love Joe Wilson now.

[Pericles]

There absolutely should be a crime of aggression. Starting a war unnecessarily is an evil action and all the other crimes pale in comparison to it-they are just flow on effects from the crime. International law is clear that states should not be going to war to conquer or bully each other, and we should all agree that wars are not a good way to resolve disputes.

[Pericles]

OBrien always has great takes on the conflict and I agree that Ukraine is now probably going to wait until June now to attack. Especially now that they have these new Storm Shadow to use to wreck Russian logistics for the next few weeks

Late June is a sensitive period for Russia historically.

[Pericles]

OBrien always has great takes on the conflict and I agree that Ukraine is now probably going to wait until June now to attack. Especially now that they have these new Storm Shadow to use to wreck Russian logistics for the next few weeks

Late June is a sensitive period for Russia historically.

Well it might become an even more sensitive time in the future lol
Edit: Also tbf Ukraine and Belarus endured the worst of Barbarossa

Yeah Zelensky presumably wants has crossed out 22 June as an option.

By the way, Russia is so obnoxious for taking credit for the Soviet victory in WW2, when Ukraine sacrificed even more for it. The Russian SSR couldn't have won it on their own, arguably the entire USSR couldn't have.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1659993883873353728?s=12
 

Bakhmut upgraded from Verdun to Stalingrad?

[Pericles]

Russians often call Kaliningrad by its old German name Königsberg. They believe that Germany has a right to this city, but it will be very strange for them if Poland claims this right.

the Germans took the land from the Prussians, a Baltic people who finally disappeared as a separate culture in the early 1700s and more Prussians assimilated into the culturally close Lithuanian people than became German, so the Lithuanians have the best historical claim, but they don't want a big Russian minority. Poland is the best option, a large country where a small Russian minority won't change the demographic balance with a Slavic language where the resident Russians can eventually assimilate.

After a generation or two imo, it becomes more trouble than its worth to put ethnicities into foreign countries. Konigsberg belonged to Germany and it was criminal what was done to it in the 1940s (which in no way excuses the German crimes that provoked it), but it now is Russian and should stay that way.

[Pericles]

[Pericles]

Only 28% of the US public saying too much aid is being provided isn't going to deter Biden or damage his re-election chances.

[Pericles]

I doubt that Prigozhin has much military support. The early stages of a coup attempt are the most dangerous but so far the regime seems to be hanging on. This clearly though creates a lot of chaos, which is very risky for Putin-and unknown if it's good news for the rest of the world.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1672961619029118978?s=20

All it takes is looking at basic statistics to realize NATO's economy is bigger than Russia's. If Putin could rationally assess his interests though, he wouldn't have risked it all to begin with.

[Pericles]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/riesen-sorge-in-berlin-deutsche-regierung-fuerchtet-putins-armee-plan-84898514.bild.html

"German government fears Putin's army plan"

Bild:  “Russia is ready to wage war in Ukraine for another two or three years, according to experts from the German government

Only 2-3 years? There is no question Ukraine can keep going for that time-the cause is just and they want it more.