Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[Pericles]

Glenn Youngkin should send Jayapal and Sanders nice Christmas presents since their grandstanding may well have gift-wrapped him the VA Governor's office.

The reconciliation bill is worth him winning.

But you might end up getting neither. There is no guarantee, that the Bill gets better than this one.

In August, Biden could take win and build a 1.5T reconciliation bill upon it (Manchin gave a word?). Now, 3 months later, they have 1.75T bill fighting (Dems are in disarray!!) over how many things got killed (such optics might make (D) voters less enthusiastic.), and... Manchin has not even endorsed it.

I don't know, how the bill will look at the end. May be, the Progressives make it much better, but there is and always has been a risk-reward trade-off, and I'm not sure, that these 0.25T will be worth it.

Oh I don't think they can make it better or will try. They do need to hold the BIF hostage until Manchin and Sinema actually cast their votes for the reconciliation bill though. Even though I believe the BIF should be passed in this Congress regardless of what happens to reconciliation, the threat to it needs to be used as a bluff to motivate Manchin and Sinema.

[Pericles]

I'm not going to act like everyone in Virginia was voting on the basis of the Infrastructure Bills (just to head off the strawmen), but I think that if they passed before today we would have won.

Part of the reason Biden has such bad approvals now is that the administration hasn't had a legislative victory in 6 months. In that time, his approvals have had a slow erosion due to inflation, COVID, and shortages, as well as the large one-off event of Afghanistan. These things have been slowly sapping strength, without anything being done to restore it. These bills contain popular programs, which are easy to run on. Who doesn't like building bridges? If they had passed, that would have certainly led to at least some improvement in approvals.

The national environment isn't everything in a statewide race of course, but it still influences it significantly. If Biden's net approval were higher, the baseline for any given race is also higher for the Democrats. It's not like we would gain 10 points from this, but I think it would have given a boost sufficient to win races like we had tonight.

If the "progressive" fools in the House weren't holding the infrastructure bill hostage, we would have bagged Virginia.

The Virginia election alone is pretty unimportant, especially compared to the payoff from ensuring the reconciliation bill passes (eg reducing climate change). This does send a clear message that Democrats need to do something and then proudly run on it in 2022, or they will be smashed across the map.

[Pericles]

I'm not going to act like everyone in Virginia was voting on the basis of the Infrastructure Bills (just to head off the strawmen), but I think that if they passed before today we would have won.

Part of the reason Biden has such bad approvals now is that the administration hasn't had a legislative victory in 6 months. In that time, his approvals have had a slow erosion due to inflation, COVID, and shortages, as well as the large one-off event of Afghanistan. These things have been slowly sapping strength, without anything being done to restore it. These bills contain popular programs, which are easy to run on. Who doesn't like building bridges? If they had passed, that would have certainly led to at least some improvement in approvals.

The national environment isn't everything in a statewide race of course, but it still influences it significantly. If Biden's net approval were higher, the baseline for any given race is also higher for the Democrats. It's not like we would gain 10 points from this, but I think it would have given a boost sufficient to win races like we had tonight.

If the "progressive" fools in the House weren't holding the infrastructure bill hostage, we would have bagged Virginia.

The Virginia election alone is pretty unimportant, especially compared to the payoff from ensuring the reconciliation bill passes (eg reducing climate change). This does send a clear message that Democrats need to do something and then proudly run on it in 2022, or they will be smashed across the map.

The infrastructure bill should have been passed many months ago.

Instead, the so-called "progressives" are holding it hostage and that is zapping away all the momentum.

There is no reason to hold the infrastructure bill hostage. NONE.

Fixing potholes and bridges is an easy sell.

Reducing carbon emission, not so much.

Both must pass rather than only infrastructure. Democrats need to get this right, even if it takes a little longer.

[Pericles]

It's good to know the BIF will definitely pass. However, I am worried about the most important bill-reconciliation, and I hope Democrats didn't make an error by passing BIF first.

13 Stupid and TRAITOROUS RINOS bailed out Biden and Pelosi by voting to pass this “infrastructure bill.”
I have never felt so betrayed, this is the worst day of my life.

Ha ha ha, this is pretty cool.

[Pericles]

Let’s hope we get a big beautiful unanimous vote to pressure Manchin and Sinema to shut the hell up.

Jared Golden is going to be the one Dem nay, isn't he?

[Pericles]

I just realised I haven't listened to Kevin McCarthy before, his voice sounds horrible.

[Pericles]

God I’m sick and tired of all the winning

https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1462440567179255817?s=20

Lol you take the poll numbers, we'll take the action on climate change, paid leave, Obamacare expansion, expanded tax credits, affordable housing spending and all the other great stuff in it.

[Pericles]

Any chance for a smaller bill? Just pick one or two of the priorities and pass those.

This is extremely disappointing news. It's especially disappointing that Manchin singled out the climate provisions for his attack, because those are by far the most important parts of the bill and this will have real consequences for the pace of emissions reduction and therefore the entire planet. He is a Big Coal Senator though.

[Pericles]

"Build Back Better" was literally Biden's campaign slogan, you halfwit.

AP Votecast 2020 exit poll: Would you describe your vote for president mainly as FOR your candidate or AGAINST his opponent?

For your candidate (63%): Biden 40%, Trump 59%
Against his opponent (37%): Biden 71%, Trump 27%

Total it up and you find that Biden got more voters who voted against Trump than voted for him. Fine, polling sucks, there's sampling error, etc, at least this shows that out of Biden supporters, there are about as many who supported him as who opposed Trump. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the BBB agenda. What did get majority support among voters was for Biden to not be a piece of sh*t like Trump, to take COVID-19 seriously and show leadership in containing the pandemic, and to bring normalcy back to politics and society. Spanberger spoke the harsh (to progressives) truth when she said that Biden was not elected to be FDR.

That only means that Democratic voters hated Trump so much that they were even more motivated by voting him out than by the Democratic Party policy agenda. That's perfectly logical, but it doesn't mean that they didn't want stuff like BBB, and specifically action on climate change, to pass.

[Pericles]

That online Dems in this thread are unhappy with Joe Manchin is a sign he's doing all the right things in regards to brand management. This is how you are able to stay electable in a state Trump won by 40 points.

No, "brand management" is irrelevant when you're going to lose by a wide margin in 2024 anyway.

It's unfortunately possible that Manchin will be one of those horrendous retired politicians who gets rewarded for being horrendous with an ambassadorship to some random stable democratic ally he has no connections to, and that he thinks it's likelier for a Republican President to do so than a Democratic one.

What a horrifying thought to have Joe Manchin as the US Ambassador to New Zealand. Australia can take him.

[Pericles]

That online Dems in this thread are unhappy with Joe Manchin is a sign he's doing all the right things in regards to brand management. This is how you are able to stay electable in a state Trump won by 40 points.

Sure, but the fact that you're presenting this as an example of "brand management", rather than an example of actually being the kind of moderate that supports the sort of moderate/unideological policymaking that helps West Virginians as opposed to the sort that further immiserates them (which Jim Justice if anyone is a better representative of with his welfare-for-whites big-government-conservative stance on Biden's spending proposals), speaks volumes about the utterly vapid, nihilistic, contentless state of American politics right now.

And who's responsible for that? Manchin would rather antagonize Biden than give his constituents Medicare dental coverage. Which is probably a smart bet. So we need to start calling a spade a spade. Manchin is only doing what he's doing because he thinks his WWC constituents are stupid. And he's probably right.

That's how partisanship works, most people just blindly oppose what the President of the opposite party proposes and so equally blindly like members of that party who vote against the President.

[Pericles]

Considering the stock market is about to take tumble in a few hours, I'd BBB is far from dead and Manchin will have a lot to answer for.

I just don't understand why Schumer can't put pressure on Murkowski to vote for it.

The Republican Senator from Alaska is not going to save the climate.

[Pericles]

The poll question affects the result. If it's framed in terms of the details, support will be higher than if people think of it as Biden and the Democrats' plan. However, the latter is what more people know and will remember, so the Rasmussen result is more likely to be accurate.

[Pericles]

How curious that Senator Manchin and his Republican allies suddenly stop hyperventilating about deficits and the national debt when it doesn't involve spending on the least fortunate:

Joe Manchin Drops All ‘Concerns’ About Deficits and Debt as Biden Signs $768 Billion Defense Spending Bill

This is one of those moments where Eisenhower's quote about the military industrial complex being " a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed" is so clearly true.

[Pericles]

Well the problem with standalone votes is one of them burns your reconciliation chance. Unless the goal is regular order, but I don't think any of the big ticket items can reach cloture. Some of the smaller stuff sure.

Didn't the parliamentarian say Democrats get at least several more reconciliation votes? They should use them.

[Pericles]

So if he only cares about his near term approval rating, then sure abandon BBB. But that's not what it's about.

I don't think that says abandon BBB. It just says people don't really care about the bill and they dislike him, because they are affected by inflation and the pandemic not being over and-imo unfairly-blame him for this. However, people are also bad at predicting their responses to hypothetical political events-maybe if Biden were to pass a few easily understandable policies and tell people about it, he would look like a winner again and become more popular.

[Pericles]

The two top priorities for Biden are extending the Child Tax Credit and helping reduce the cost of community colleges:

Acknowledging hurdles, Biden ready to split up budget package

He said those were the ones that are the least likely to pass, not necessarily his top two.

[Pericles]

Going to say this. Whereas republicans wanted to kill this bill in its cradle based on general opposition to government spending that doesn't have to do with the pentagon and not wanting to hand Joe Biden a win, Maybe Joe Manchin  Was correct after all given the major problem with the economy today is inflation rather than unemployment and lack of economic growth, which passing BBB would have only exacerbated?

I say this as someone who took that man's name as a cuss word for the last year.

Although true, we simply don’t have time to wait for the inflation to ease because by then the GOP will be in control and it just makes us look weak.

if the GOP takes control, it didn't matter how they did. Besides, there is a 90% chance that we will get to try again with a better hand in 2032.

Climate action can't wait, that has to be done this year.

[Pericles]

Dems plan to move quickly, pass new bill before Memorial Day

A lot has to go right, but this isn't over yet. The IPCC support shows why the climate spending is so important, I'd personally make almost any compromise for it. I think the incentive for almost everyone is to get a deal-but some people are nutjobs honestly (Kyrsten Sinema).

[Pericles]

Dems plan to move quickly, pass new bill before Memorial Day

A lot has to go right, but this isn't over yet. The IPCC support shows why the climate spending is so important, I'd personally make almost any compromise for it. I think the incentive for almost everyone is to get a deal-but some people are nutjobs honestly (Kyrsten Sinema).

Making the rich pay to control inflation? What’s not to like?

I doubt it would do much about inflation because the Trump tax cuts weren't that inflationary. Not that I'm an economist. In any case it's a good line to use.

[Pericles]

Honestly, if CTC is still dead because this rich ass hates children, his constituents, and especially his constituents children, I’m fine with burning this thing down.

Oh we get ‘climate mitigation’ if it’s also offset by pouring exactly as much money into his coal company?
Screw it, I don’t remember when the dictator of America election that only West Virginians got to vote was, but I don’t recognize it.

Obviously a climate bill would reduce net emissions. That's something, and something is better than nothing. Manchin is a terrible Senator but a majority of the Senate will be worse than him for many years to come. So I'd rather you do something and help reduce the extent to which climate change screws the rest of the world and even me personally over. Personally, that is more important than a Child Tax Credit that can just be passed at a later date and only affects Americans.

[Pericles]

"These talks had been a long shot to begin with,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told Axios. "Manchin informed us in the last meeting that reconciliation is probably the route he’s going down."

"We do not have any meeting scheduled that I know of, not at this point."

....

Last Wednesday, in their most recent — and potentially final — bipartisan meeting, Manchin revealed just how far along he was with Schumer.

Once the senators processed what Manchin told them — and read his public comments — many of them concluded that the bipartisan talks were actually over.

Axios article link

This is great to see. It is from Republican Senators so it could be wrong. I do think everyone wants a deal, Manchin has some stuff he agrees with the Democrats on. I really hope this helps the US achieve its emissions reduction targets. Democrats have to know that they will definitely lose without passing a major bill, and more importantly, they are unlikely to have another chance for years. From the sound of it, Manchin's deal with Schumer could pass the Senate-he may have agreed to keep most Trump tax cuts but use a 15% minimum corporate tax rate, so Sinema could agree to it too. I just hope they can fit it in time-wise, the gun talks should take a back seat to this.

[Pericles]

"These talks had been a long shot to begin with,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told Axios. "Manchin informed us in the last meeting that reconciliation is probably the route he’s going down."

"We do not have any meeting scheduled that I know of, not at this point."

....

Last Wednesday, in their most recent — and potentially final — bipartisan meeting, Manchin revealed just how far along he was with Schumer.

Once the senators processed what Manchin told them — and read his public comments — many of them concluded that the bipartisan talks were actually over.

Axios article link

This is great to see. It is from Republican Senators so it could be wrong. I do think everyone wants a deal, Manchin has some stuff he agrees with the Democrats on. I really hope this helps the US achieve its emissions reduction targets. Democrats have to know that they will definitely lose without passing a major bill, and more importantly, they are unlikely to have another chance for years. From the sound of it, Manchin's deal with Schumer could pass the Senate-he may have agreed to keep most Trump tax cuts but use a 15% minimum corporate tax rate, so Sinema could agree to it too. I just hope they can fit it in time-wise, the gun talks should take a back seat to this.

We'll see what happens. Spending trillions right now isn't a good idea but some provisions are good.

It will be a deficit reduction bill.

I don't care if Manchin is willing to play ball with Democrats on this. I care much more if he's willing to play ball with Democrats on gun control.

He has been far more clear that the filibuster will not change, so at best slight progress on guns is possible. It is far more important to accelerate the development of clean energy and do reduce the impact of climate change. As tragic as mass shootings are, those only effect a few Americans while climate change effects the rest of the world and me personally.

[Pericles]

1) I don’t believe it for a second, Manchin does this crap all the time. He’s pretending to play ball so the Democrats don’t call him out on paralyzing the legislature again with his inane bullsh**t now that gun control is in the news
2) Even if it does, everything being discussed amounts to jack sh**t. He’s already killed CTC and I haven’t heard a damn peep from mr. inflation about the insurance premium spike about to happen because the addled hillbilly sociopath decided White House staffers weren’t nice enough to him.
The absolute best that will happen is he agrees to change the AMT and then insists we throw that money in a whole and set it on fire because deficit and apparently Joe Manchin is dictator of the United States.

Joe Manchin is a pretty awful Senator whose only saving grace is that there are 50 worse Senators, but I don't agree with your second point. The CTC was great and it's tragic to have lost it but that was far from the only thing in Build Back Better. The talks could result in $800 billion in revenue and $300 billion in climate tax credits. Prescription drug reform would also be on the table, Manchin has said he supports it and it appears that in late 2021 a compromise version was agreed on with Sinema. This would be a political winner and raise revenue. Most importantly though, the House BBB bill was projected to get the US on track to meet its emissions reduction targets, while it would fall short with no bill. From the sounds of it, the new reconciliation deal would be a lot closer to BBB in terms of emission reduction than doing nothing at all. Of course, we'd need to see the bill, this is a pretty sketchy legislative process but it's how both parties do things. I'm pretty sure it would make progress on several areas that I assume we'd all like to see progress.

[Pericles]

Schumer to submit bill on drug negotiation agreed by all 50 Dems to parliamentarian

Schumer will submit text today to the Senate parliamentarian reflecting an agreement among all Democrats – including Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) – to allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug costs. The parliamentarian will then begin the “Byrd Bath” review process to make sure the proposal conforms with the Senate’s arcane reconciliation rules.

At this point, the rest of the package – informally dubbed Build Back Manchin – is up in the air. This is the low hanging fruit. Manchin has always supported this policy, as do 49 other Senate Democrats. So Schumer is starting with the lowest common denominator.

Medicare would be able to begin negotiating on drug prices from 2023, there would be some kind of $2,000 cap on out of pocket costs, a premium stabilisation policy, free vaccines for seniors, and a provision to "end the 'rogue secretary loophole'". This would also help finance the rest of the package by saving the govt several hundred billion dollars annually.

At least something will get passed, and it shows they haven't just given up and gone home. These provisions alone poll very well so it should be at least a bit of a boost for Democrats.