COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Pericles]

Just create a new thread, don't they usually only go to 80 pages anyway?

[Pericles]

That poll about hospitalization risk just shows that the public doesn't have a good idea of risk. Even most Republicans overestimate the risk, yet then they underestimate the actual seriousness of the disease and dismiss it as being a threat. People don't act based on the logical consequences of their perceived level of risk. Perhaps people don't appreciate how much Covid has really spread, even the official case numbers are huge but nearly 100 million people in the US could have actually contracted the virus.

[Pericles]

The one year anniversary of this:

Trump suggests 'injection' of disinfectant to beat coronavirus and 'clean' the lungs

The depressing part is that this ended up being fairly irrelevant in the end.

Trump would have won if he'd appeared more competent on Covid. I doubt the bleach gaffe alone cost him the election, but it was symbolic of how he blew it.

[Pericles]

I know Atlas doesn’t want to hear bad news ever, but 26 out of the 73 people who have died from the Delta variant in the UK being fully vaccinated is a bit concerning. This is not even a case of symptomatic cases...we are talking full on deaths, which one would think would be more likely to be prevented by vaccines, even with these variants.
It’s a very small sample size and we have other data demonstrating strong efficacy of these vaccines as well, but still, we shouldn’t just say everything’s all okay and great now because that’s what makes us feel better.
We need to keep an eye on Delta and learn more about it, and we really need more information on Delta Plus.

I know posters above want to live in lalaland because it’s fun (and I’m guilty of the opposite admittedly), but eventually they will have to grow up and understand reality isn’t so positive all the time.
There is still plenty of reason to be hopeful, and we can quickly adapt these MRNA vaccines if needed, but we are clearly not finished and won’t be for a while.

Most UK adults are vaccinated though, particularly those that are vulnerable of dying of Covid. So far there has been a negligible increase in deaths for a significant rise in cases, we need to wait and see but hopefully the link between cases and deaths is virtually broken.

[Pericles]

I hope there won’t be another lockdown, I recently got a job at my local movie theater and our business is picking back up.

I don't support lockdowns right now, but I think we've moved far too fast in eliminating our other good measures. Masks and social distancing have been extraordinarily effective. The CDC made a big mistakes and moved too fast. We should've relaxed restrictions as we met certain vaccine benchmarks.

As I said before, I believe in the vaccines. I wouldn't have allowed myself to be injected with two doses of Pfizer's vaccine if I didn't. However, I do think warm weather is giving us an artificial low. I'm very concerned about a low vaccine uptake and viral mutations that manage to get past our vaccines. That would spread worse than a wildfire.

How many people reasonably have not had the vaccine because they didn't have the opportunity to do so? Once people get that chance, the basis for restricting people's lives is much weaker and the argument that they have a personal responsibility to protect themselves is suddenly valid.

[Pericles]

Pfizer is 94% effective at preventing serious illness, which is what really matters.

[Pericles]

I remember after Biden's election victory that many on the online left thought he would come into office on January 20th and lockdown the entire country. Haha he has literally done the opposite.

Biden would have zero authority to lockdown the entire country and a vast majority of states would refuse to comply.

And we shall not become another Australia. Eventually, Australia will have to open up and have their entire population extremely vulnerable to covid as there is virtually no natural immunity down there.

Australia and NZ are going to be vaccinated too and end up avoiding massive loss of life, and actually avoid a lot of the economic impact too.

[Pericles]

This data is from England and a few days old, but I think it shows the risk that the health system gets overwhelmed is pretty minimal. Unfortunately due to the Delta variant and vaccine hesitancy (in the US) there will be unnecessary deaths, but the justification for an outright lockdown was to protect the health system. Now that the vaccine is available, people will just have to take personal responsibility for their health. Mask mandates are pretty costless so a few limited restrictions to save lives are justifiable. And in countries like NZ that eliminated rather than tried to suppress the virus, we may be able to try a different strategy for our full return to normal.

[Pericles]

This data is from England and a few days old, but I think it shows the risk that the health system gets overwhelmed is pretty minimal. Unfortunately due to the Delta variant and vaccine hesitancy (in the US) there will be unnecessary deaths, but the justification for an outright lockdown was to protect the health system. Now that the vaccine is available, people will just have to take personal responsibility for their health. Mask mandates are pretty costless so a few limited restrictions to save lives are justifiable. And in countries like NZ that eliminated rather than tried to suppress the virus, we may be able to try a different strategy for our full return to normal.

I don't get why NZ hasn't been vaccinating more. You have no virus but don't you want to get rid of all the international travel restrictions & isolation?

I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.

I think availability is a bit of a question mark as well?

That's basically it, we're using all the vaccines we have. And at least we are ahead of our own targets so while slow by international standards, hopefully this means the rollout will go smoothly through the rest of the year. Maybe we could have bought more, but that would have taken supply from countries that need it more.

[Pericles]

A striking data point is that the US and the UK have the same daily case rate, around 500 per million, but the US daily death toll of 4.21 per million is over 2 and a half times the UK rate (1.56 per million). None of this is because of the US healthcare system being worse than the UK one, oddly in January they had similar case rates but the UK per capita death toll was double the US one. The UK vaccine takeup is better than the US one-they have 72% first dosed and 64% fully vaccinated, while the US has 62% first dosed and 53% fully vaccinated. Still, the US death toll shouldn't be so high, the vast majority of the vulnerable populations have been vaccinated (82% of over 65s are fully vaccinated). So what do you think is making the US do badly?

EDIT: Never mind, the UK is testing so much more than the US, they did 11.32 daily tests per million to 3.32 per million for the US. So Delta has spread so much more in the US. That is slightly surprising since the UK has looser restrictions and is more densely populated, but maybe voluntary social distancing and mask-wearing is much higher there.

[Pericles]

A striking data point is that the US and the UK have the same daily case rate, around 500 per million, but the US daily death toll of 4.21 per million is over 2 and a half times the UK rate (1.56 per million). None of this is because of the US healthcare system being worse than the UK one, oddly in January they had similar case rates but the UK per capita death toll was double the US one. The UK vaccine takeup is better than the US one-they have 72% first dosed and 64% fully vaccinated, while the US has 62% first dosed and 53% fully vaccinated. Still, the US death toll shouldn't be so high, the vast majority of the vulnerable populations have been vaccinated (82% of over 65s are fully vaccinated). So what do you think is making the US do badly?

EDIT: Never mind, the UK is testing so much more than the US, they did 11.32 daily tests per million to 3.32 per million for the US. So Delta has spread so much more in the US. That is slightly surprising since the UK has looser restrictions and is more densely populated, but maybe voluntary social distancing and mask-wearing is much higher there.

Also America is twice as obese. Most deaths are among the obese.

If that mattered, the fatality rate before the vaccine rollout would have been higher in the US rather than the UK, it was the other way around. The US population is a bit younger, but I'm not sure if the difference was meaningful.

[Pericles]

If that mattered, the fatality rate before the vaccine rollout would have been higher in the US rather than the UK, it was the other way around. The US population is a bit younger, but I'm not sure if the difference was meaningful.

Earlier in the pandemic, the UK had less testing per capita than the USA (not at the very beginning, but in e.g. late 2020). So if you are looking at CFRs, the ratio of deaths to reported cases, that difference may be attributable to a lower proportion of cases being reported at that time in the UK than in the USA.

I was only looking at January 2021 (though late 2020 they were testing at the same levels). It turns out the UK testing rate was slightly higher, but not enough for that to explain their deaths being double what the US was suffering. Maybe the UK didn't treat their patients well enough or maybe their population, or at least those infected, were more vulnerable.

[Pericles]

So, my 87 year old grandpa, residing in a Florida assisted living home has now tested positive for COVID. Thankfully he is fully vaccinated, so I expect him to be okay in the end. But the poor guy is being taken two hours away to Jacksonville to be sequestered with other COVID positive seniors for at least two weeks. It's still not something that should be happening anymore. Furthermore; my aunt, dad, and grandma all had to get tested and quarantine until they get their results.

I've theorized that my grandpa got the virus from a worker at the home. Thanks, DeSuckass!
I've always, notoriously, loathed him; but now it's personal with me. F*** this incompetent scumbag!

As if I needed more to be angry about lately...I seriously feel like I'm losing my mind. I had a nice break from it for a short time, but we're right back to this country feeling like an apocalyptic wasteland to me...literally. People abandoned their cars on major highways here last night because of the tropical storm. Everything just sucks...my pig can't even make me feel better anymore.

I'm so sorry for you, I hope he has a strong recovery and you are ok. It's so stupid and wrong for staff working with vulnerable people not to be vaccinated.

[Pericles]

Fauci says cases need to be 10,000 or less for pandemic to be under control

At least he's setting a goal, but I don't see how it's achievable for the US. Delta is too contagious. And what is the point of 10,000 specifically? Based on rough calculations that would mean around 30,000 deaths a year, but cases and deaths could probably be much higher than that without denying everyone adequate treatment from the healthcare system. The current death rate is too high though, since it could lead to nearly 500,000 annual deaths and is placing unacceptable stress on healthcare systems-which isn't helped by the fact that the wave isn't evenly spread across the US.

[Pericles]

Discuss the why all you want. This talk of firing all of them or maybe they committed treason is just nuts.

If they denied booster shots to Americans because they think the shots should be sent overseas, then that is arguably treason. If this is revealed to be the case then Biden needs to fire them all.

I wish I could take them at their word that their judgement was based on the efficacy of the initial 2 shots for the under-65 population and lack of data proving booster efficacy, but there's a part of me that just knows better. We'll see in the next week or so as this info would likely be leaked or someone at the FDA will spill the beans.

Two shots are already plenty of protection so it's not clear at all that a third one is needed for people who have already done the right thing. It is clear though that there are billions of people who still need any protection from Covid and if they don't get it dangerous new variants could set back even developed countries. So there is a real opportunity cost to boosters, which is why the experts should make sure the extra protection would actually help before recommending it.

[Pericles]

Most death tolls are an undercount but I don't see why Florida's would be particularly large.

[Pericles]

It's getting very late in the game-vaccinated people who have done everything right need to be able to live normal lives. If one more month would save lives then sure, but this can't go on forever. Very soon, there is no alternative but to let it rip among the unvaccinated-if they die sorry but they should have taken more personal responsibility for their health.

[Pericles]

It's getting very late in the game-vaccinated people who have done everything right need to be able to live normal lives. If one more month would save lives then sure, but this can't go on forever. Very soon, there is no alternative but to let it rip among the unvaccinated-if they die sorry but they should have taken more personal responsibility for their health.

Except then the virus will mutate into a form that is immune to all our vaccines. Plus the unvaccinated are filling up hospitals to the point that vaccinated people are indirectly dying from other things.

If it mutates it mutates, that will happen regardless of how high cases are in the US and can't be used to guide policy for any one country. Besides vaccine effectiveness will wane over time not go to zero in one mutation, it is so great at protecting the double dosed that you might even be able to afford a few mutations. The unvaccinated should definitely get the vaccine but a return to normal is well overdue.

[Pericles]

It's getting very late in the game-vaccinated people who have done everything right need to be able to live normal lives. If one more month would save lives then sure, but this can't go on forever. Very soon, there is no alternative but to let it rip among the unvaccinated-if they die sorry but they should have taken more personal responsibility for their health.

We pretty much have been letting it rip amongst the unvaccinated in the USA. That is what 2000 deaths a day is. Or, alternatively, it is almost equivalent to the number of US combat deaths in the 20 year long Afghan war, in a single day.

If 2 9/11s every 3 days, or almost 20 years worth of Afghan war combat deaths every day and having hospitals run out of ICU beds in many parts of the country isn't letting it rip, then I shudder to think of what letting it rip is.

So the vaccine mandates need to be imposed and given time to work, but if it's clear that they just won't get the jab then there's no point punishing the vaccinated. So in a way this is the critical month to see if any progress can be made.

[Pericles]

If it mutates it mutates, that will happen regardless of how high cases are in the US and can't be used to guide policy for any one country.

Underrated point. The world needs a global policy towards COVID. This is, at present, totally lacking.

Viruses do not respect national borders, and even with extremely strong border restrictions it is difficult to impossible to totally restrict.

Just as it is absurd and ineffectual to have COVID policy set on a state/local level within the USA, it is absurd and ineffectual to have COVID policy set on the national level without international coordination and planning.

I'm not sure if the US has so many spare vaccines they can do boosters and get billions of people in developing countries vaccinated but boosters seem wasteful since the double jabbed are so well protected. It's different for the double jabbed who are still old or vulnerable and for children who are of course not jabbed and so coukd use protection against Covid.

[Pericles]

If it mutates it mutates, that will happen regardless of how high cases are in the US and can't be used to guide policy for any one country.

Underrated point. The world needs a global policy towards COVID. This is, at present, totally lacking.

Viruses do not respect national borders, and even with extremely strong border restrictions it is difficult to impossible to totally restrict.

Just as it is absurd and ineffectual to have COVID policy set on a state/local level within the USA, it is absurd and ineffectual to have COVID policy set on the national level without international coordination and planning.

I'm not sure if the US has so many spare vaccines they can do boosters and get billions of people in developing countries vaccinated but boosters seem wasteful since the double jabbed are so well protected. It's different for the double jabbed who are still old or vulnerable and for children who are of course not jabbed and so coukd use protection against Covid.

We wouldn't need third doses, except that so many people refuse to get first doses and will endanger us all.

I doubt the people who are double jabbed three weeks plus ago are the ones filling up the hospitals, or even a significant share of the patients. It might reduce transmission slightly but it still feels wasteful so let's defer to the experts.

[Pericles]

I think right now the U.S. is at 21 days in a row of declining cases. This hasn't happened since May.

Also, it does look like Alabama may be the first state to have full herd immunity.

Herd immunity will never happen in any state.

[Pericles]

I think right now the U.S. is at 21 days in a row of declining cases. This hasn't happened since May.

Also, it does look like Alabama may be the first state to have full herd immunity.

If they are, they made it much harder than it needed to be.

3,000 ish deaths out of every millionth person (roughly a million Americans dead rather than 700,0000) was supposed to be the best way through the pandemic though? They couldn't accept there was a safer path of saving lives until jabs were in arms, and then putting the jabs in their own arms.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/sirimahanthesh/status/1446162069250789384

Is it still the case that the Covid death rate is higher for men than women? If so, what might be causing it-are there any factors that happen to be correlated with being a man that would increase the risk?

[Pericles]

Greg Abbott issues executive order banning vaccine mandates for private businesses

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/11/texas-greg-abbott-covid-19-vaccine-mandate/

Not sure that he actually has the ability to do this, but nonetheless, what a POS.

Give this God-forsaken hellhole of a state independence and be done with it.

Within a few elections they could be the ones saving the rest of America from this kind of stupidity though.