ME (NRSC Internal): Collins +8 (user search)
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  ME (NRSC Internal): Collins +8 (search mode)
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Author Topic: ME (NRSC Internal): Collins +8  (Read 2889 times)
Pericles
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« on: July 02, 2020, 01:20:26 AM »

I don't trust Republican internals, but I'm slightly concerned (troubled, perhaps?) that Collins' lead is 8 points here. It would be easier to just junk a Collins+1 poll.
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Pericles
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Posts: 17,171


« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2020, 02:25:58 AM »

I don't trust Republican internals, but I'm slightly concerned (troubled, perhaps?) that Collins' lead is 8 points here. It would be easier to just junk a Collins+1 poll.

A poll showing Collins+1 is plausible, believable, and would be cause for concern.

A poll showing Collins+8 is laughable and deserves to be trashed.

The usual rule with internal polls is to shave about five points off the margin of the side sponsoring the poll. So a Collins +1 internal would be pretty pathetic and confirm she is behind. This Collins +8 internal suggests that though the margin is exaggerated, maybe she's actually ahead. At least that's how I'd generally approach it. In this case my guess is the poll is junkier than most internals, but it does make me consider the prospect that Collins is up by 3 points a bit more seriously.
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