538 Democratic primary model is up (user search)
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June 06, 2024, 02:53:21 AM
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  538 Democratic primary model is up (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 Democratic primary model is up  (Read 9468 times)
Pericles
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« on: January 09, 2020, 02:52:29 PM »

Better chance of a contested convention than Warren winning the nomination? Lol.

Well, there's contested and then there's contested.  Their metric is simply that no candidate has a majority of pledged delegates; I added the words "contested convention".  But in reality, if the front-runner is close to a majority but not quite there before the convention, there won't be a lot of suspense.  The front-runner is almost certain to pick up enough unpledged delegates to win.

Even with the rule changes, would Bernie really be able to win enough superdelegates in that scenario? Biden, Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar I can all see this being true for though.
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Pericles
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Posts: 17,190


« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2020, 02:54:04 PM »

The probabilities are not that helpful rn, I think they should have delayed the launch of this and launched it after the first few early states but before Super Tuesday.
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