IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Pericles]

Likely R Safe R

[Pericles]

Oh my god, stop. Enough with these dinosaurs coming out of the woodwork and subsequently blowing senate races for Democrats.

I mean, I don't think Vilsack should run, but you can't claim these "dinosaurs" are blowing Senate races. You can't seriously think anyone could do better than Bredesen or Bayh in Tennessee/Indiana. Sure, they weren't perfect candidates (especially Bayh), but no one else could've won these red states. The only one you can claim blowed a race was Strickland, who ran a terrible campaign, and even then it's likely no one could've beaten Portman.

That is correct, which is why Vilsack would be even worse than them. The Dems had no shot in those races. Here, they have a small but legitimate shot and have legitimately better options, and so Vilsack would actually blow a legitimate opportunity for Democrats.

[Pericles]

A more interesting question than "Will Joni Ernst be reelected in 2020?" may be "If Democrats can’t beat her in 2020, when exactly will they?" Certainly not in 2026, which is likely to be a midterm under a Democratic president. The Republican presidential nominee will most likely win Iowa in 2032, and while 2038 could be a midterm under a Republican president, the ship will have most likely sailed by then and Ernst followed in Grassley's footsteps. It’s really now or never for Dems in 2020, and even that race will be an uphill battle for whoever they nominate.

Possibly, given Iowa's trend to the GOP, but predicting so far out into the future is a recipe for disaster. In 2014 Iowa was considered a Democratic-leaning state, so things change a lot in 6 years, and Democrats could even win the seat by a fluke. Does she even want to be a lifer like Grassley? It is extremely foolish to make certain predictions for 6 or 12 or 18 years into the future, it's hard enough for Atlas posters to make accurate predictions about events 24 hours into the future.

[Pericles]

I may not live in Iowa anymore (need to update my avatar) but I think this is going to be a sleeper race. Everyone thinks Ernst is safe. Yet Iowa has been one of the hardest-hit states by the tariff war, the economy, and ethanol. Mass layoffs have been happening, and farmers are struggling. I personally know several farmers in Iowa and at least one of them - who voted for Trump - said she and her husband have been seriously considering giving up their farming operation, as it's a struggle for them anymore. Sonny Perdue's comments about family farms certainly don't help things.

Everyone thinks that just because Theresa Greenfield isn't some massive Tom Vilsack-esque name that she's automatically a loser and that Iowa recruitment is terrible. Democrats specifically sought her out to run, and I think she's been at the top of their list for awhile. She probably would have won the 3rd District if her campaign manager hadn't have forged those signatures - that whole situation, PS, she handled amazingly and as well as anyone could have hoped for (fired him, tossed out all the signatures and made a remarkable effort to get all the signatures again within less than 48 hours). Kay Hagan was a nobody before she became a senator. Did anybody know who Scott Brown was before he got elected? And let's not forget; Joni herself nobody gave a second thought to, and everyone thought Braley would win. The Iowa Democratic Party is a lot better than it was even a year and a half ago, and Ernst is vulnerable. I consider the race Lean R, but it's closer to Tossup than Likely R. Trust me on this; I lived in Iowa and I saw firsthand the struggles the state is going through.

Ask Heidi Heitkamp about how these voters care about the tariffs.

Tbf North Dakota is not the same as Iowa, Trump won North Dakota by 36% and Iowa by 9%. Given Heitkamp lost by 11% she outran the state's partisanship by 25%, which is legitimately impressive, and any Democrat who does that well in Iowa would win in a landslide. Of course most of Heitkamp's overperformance is probably due to her being a strong incumbent candidate, though this still isn't a good example to use and it's entirely possible the tariffs helped her overperform (especially since Democrats did do quite well in Iowa in 2018).

[Pericles]

We’ll see what happens, but if Ernst survives a Democratic wave, outpeforms all swing state Republicans, and does better than Tuberville, Sullivan, Daines, Kobach, and Cornyn, I will gladly accept accolades. I remember taking a lot of flack for saying that Daines was more vulnerable than Ernst.

This is unlikely.

[Pericles]

Y'all, idk if court packing will happen either (I've been disappointed by fence sitting dems too much thus far), but Biden and Schumer aren't clowns. They've clearly talked to Manchin, Sinema, and whoever else about this, that's why everyone is dodging questions on it and saying stuff about how they're "not a fan" or "apprehensive" and whatnot. Every dodge is more political capital they're sinking into this, so either it's all one big bluff (which would be just astoundingly incompetent even for the Democratic Party) or they are at least seriously considering it.

It could have been a gamble to make Republicans think the Dems will court-pack if the RBG seat is filled, but Republicans either don't believe it will happen or don't care. So it probably has gotten beyond that stage by now.