Alberta Election 2019

[Pericles]

I haven't been following this recently and I just realized the election is in less than a week, it looks like the NDP are surging in the polls. Could they even win, or a UCP victory still a sure thing?

[Pericles]

I haven't been following this recently and I just realized the election is in less than a week, it looks like the NDP are surging in the polls. Could they even win, or a UCP victory still a sure thing?

There’s a mild chance the NDP could win. As in, 1 in 10 chance. The polls are tightening, but as far as I’m concerned, that impacts how big the opposition to the UCP is.

The CBC's forecast has the NDP's odds at less than 1%, that does seem a bit too low.

[Pericles]

Probably the NDP has to hope for a BC 2013 scenario (except reversed).

[Pericles]

2019 Alberta election
Jason Kenney-UCP: 61+36 48.2%(+48.2%)
Rachel Notley-NDP: 25-27 38.7%(-1.9%)
Stephen Mandel-Alberta: 1-2 7.4%(+5.1%)
David Khan-Liberal: 0-1 2.6%(-1.6%)
87 seats
44 for majority

[Pericles]

Mine are as follows.  Usually for whatever reason the governing party tends to slightly outperform polls so I show the NDP a bit on the high side.

UCP 49 seats - 46%
NDP 36 seats - 41%
Alberta Party 1 seat

Is this an Alberta-specific pattern or wider? The PCs of course were the governing party for a long time so it could have been anti-PC bias in the polls.

[Pericles]

Looks like the UCP has won and it's not very close either.

[Pericles]

A wider vote differential than many forecast (at this point, about 52-34)--but for the NDP to still manage 25 seats or so on that margin isn't quite a *blowout* blowout, I reckon...

I'm not sure if the popular vote totals right now are reliable given counting is still incomplete. It does look like my expectations were about right, this is a bit similar to Ontario 2018 imo.

[Pericles]

CBC projects that Stephen Mandel has lost. It seems the Alberta Party may get 0 seats, and it could just be a UCP vs NDP parliament.

[Pericles]

Tbh the UCP appear to have slightly underperformed if anything the CBC seat projections. So it is a good night for them but no upset.

[Pericles]

It seems Alberta is the West Virginia equivalent in Canada in terms of the popularity of combatting climate change and general significant right-wing leanings, so the UCP's win should hardly be indicative of Canadian politics as a whole(though Trudeau soiled his personal brand so could very well lose) and is certainly not a reliable indicator of politics in other countries.