First off, with four less years of birtherism, Trump likely would've found some other way to keep in the spotlight. Second, the non-birther part of his shtick could've played in either party. So a Romney 2012 victory doesn't guarantee no Trump in 2016, just that if Trump ran and won, it wouldn't have been as a Republican. Trump defeating Romney in 2016 isn't an impossibility, just unlikely. Sure, his message would've been different if he ran as a Democrat, but since his only core belief is in himself, it could've happened, especially if only the Democratic primaries were a viable route for his attempt at brand promotion that proved to be both more successful than expected and ultimately his undoing.
Against Romney in 2016, Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan would've worked quite well as a Democratic campaign theme. The only needed change would've been that the hats would need to be blue.
So really, you can't argue that a Romney victory in 2012 certainly keeps Trump out of the Oval Office, only that he'd have to take a different path to get there and that he'd promote different policies once there if he did win.
I'm as big a critic of the left/Dems as anyone and I even I would say they definitely weren't crazy enough in 2016 to nominate someone like Trump. They might get their Trump a few cycles down the line.
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