2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Devout Centrist]

On twitter someone said dems needs to be up by ~550k votes in early mail in to win the state or be competitive at least - does this sound right?

Florida D's are hoping for a 600k+ edge. The assumption is that Republicans will win the election day vote 70-30.

[Devout Centrist]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points. Yet the modeled request/return ballots look a lot like the polling ID.

Wisconsin doesn't use party registration, so I have no idea how he calculated those numbers.

This is his polling map for 2020:

JUNK IT

[Devout Centrist]

I don't really trust Target Smart either tbh

[Devout Centrist]

If I had to guess, the early vote modeling people are freaking about in Michigan and Wisconsin is crudely putting overall voter registration stats on the requested/returned ballots, most likely by age cohort or race. This would be very misleading. We know that Democratic voters are way more inclined to use absentee ballots than Republicans this year and vice versa. Older voters are still dominating in requests and returns, and their overall registration stats may be Republican-leaning, but we know for sure that those older voters are disproportionately Democratic because they've chosen to take absentee ballots.

Just look at this stat from tonight's Glengariff poll of Michigan:

Among those that have already cast their ballot, Joe Biden holds a 60-point lead of 74.6%-14.1%.

Even considering the margin of error and the possibility of Biden winning significant chunks of Independents and Republicans that number is simply implausible with NBC's model.

This is solid analysis, thank you for this.

[Devout Centrist]

I waited for 3 hours in July to vote for Trump in a primary against nobody.  Don’t throw me into your biased perceptions.

And why does that make it okay?

[Devout Centrist]

It's like somehow people refuse to accept that a county's population increasing 15% in just the four years between the 2016 and 2020 elections might have an effect on its political patterns and demography.

Denton's electorate itself is different from what it was in 2016 before you even consider patterns in voters who were already there. if you aren't factoring this in, your opinion is worthless on this subject.

Yes, and it's significantly different from 2018 as well.

And given how fast Denton has been moving towards the Democratic Party...

[Devout Centrist]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

This is patently false dude. She had a 60k lead in the total early vote and Dems actually lost the VBM in 2016.

[Devout Centrist]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

 You are conflating your information. In 2016 Hillary(Democrats) was up by 92,176 by party ID, that's all we could know prior to Election Day. After Election Day when the vote was tabulated we could go back and see she actually entered Election Day with a real lead of nearly 250,000 votes and Trump ended up swinging that to win by 112,911.

Where are you getting the data for the early vote?