538 model & poll tracker thread (user search)
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  538 model & poll tracker thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 58240 times)
Devout Centrist
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Posts: 10,133
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« on: July 23, 2020, 10:35:52 AM »

It's just as we feared. The GOYA bump has arrived. We're doomed!
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Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,133
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2020, 07:10:23 PM »

Gotta push that sweet, sweet horserace. Need clicks!
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Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,133
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2020, 01:40:28 PM »

Also, if this is the actual forecast I'd puke. IL, WA both more competative than AZ!? Give me a break.


"It's...it's all Vermont?"

*click* "Always has been"
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Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,133
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2020, 10:58:50 AM »

We waited three months for this?
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Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,133
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2020, 12:53:20 PM »

It’s really bothersome how little information the design of this model makes easily available to viewers.  It seems like the only message they want to communicate is “I guess anything could happen?!?”.

Where’s the “polls only” forecast?
Where’s the “now cast”?
Where’s the easy link to the database of polls used to generate the projections?
Where’s the accounting for how individual “fundamentals” factors influence the projections?
Where’s the map??

All of this was available in the 2016 model, which actually performed quite well.  This is such a huge step backward.
But, uh, we need more uncertainty in the models! We need a section for New York Times headlines! And, uh, Fivey Fox!!!
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