CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Devout Centrist]

With under a week left until June 5th. Here is the current composition of mail in ballots in California.
12% or 1,404,822 ballots have been returned:

44% Democratic
34% Republican
18% No Party Preference
4% Other

Demographics:
73% White
14% Latino
11% Asian
2% African American

Age:
50% 65 +
27% 50-64
13% 35-49
10% 18-34

Does that number include counties that have mailed out ballots to every registered voter?

[Devout Centrist]

It really is ridiculous/disgraceful that CA can’t count faster

I wonder how much of it is to do with the fact they allow ballots to arrive three days after the election.

Precisely; not to mention that counties pay the post office for ballots that lack sufficient postage.

Would you rather we have a system like New York where everyone votes on election day?

[Devout Centrist]

polls have closed in California

[Devout Centrist]

If Baugh's numbers fall by just a hair, Democrats will be fine.

[Devout Centrist]

Dunno folks, if the Democrats win this November, that means they will lose someday...big loss if true.

[Devout Centrist]

Tonight, California has changed my mind. I don't think we are winning the house anymore.

I honestly don't know how you pulled that out of your ass.

Look at how ing terrible numbers in cd's are even in obvious D holds. Garamendi at 54?!

Bera at 52?!

McNerney at 53?!

Carbajal at 52?!

Waters at 68?!

Lowenthal at 56?!

Peters at 57?!

Yes, these are all likely to safe D holds, but still terrible numbers, awful!

Nothing out of the ordinary so far. What’s so concerning? Don’t lecture us Californians on this stuff.

[Devout Centrist]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

[Devout Centrist]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

Ummm no. We have a candidate in every race, the GOP's, not the Dem's, vote share is down across every district, turnout amongst Democrats was sky high, and the Generic ballot was being powered by crappy online polls like Reuters for the past two weeks. I still don't see what the commotion from the right is about California. They got crushed. They don't even have a senate candidate. It seems to me you're concern trolling.

What are you talking about?? You’re not looking at the numbers! Typical Democratic hack. Wow!

(I’m kidding, dude. I had hoped my post would make it obvious.)

[Devout Centrist]

It’s Sunday, of course there isn’t going to be an update

[Devout Centrist]

GOP still below 60% in the two-party vote in SC with three-quarters in; anybody know how much (if any) of a counting bias the state has?

IIRC, it has a strong Dem bias for the first 4 percent of the vote; it should be pretty balanced by now, though.

[Devout Centrist]

I feel so bad for Mark Sanford. He didn’t deserve to go down. Not like this.

Oh yes he did. His political career should have ended in 2009!