2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Devout Centrist]

PPP: D 49, R 38.  A month ago they had it 47-41.  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/05/health-care-puts-house-in-play.html

Not good!

[Devout Centrist]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

Let me remind all citizens of the dangers of magical thinking. In this case, the idea that swings will be clustered in cities. If anything, it's far more likely we see pronounced swings in lean, likely, and safe R districts.

[Devout Centrist]

Democrats up 15 in Marist:

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/930501516376657921

Democrats up 13 points, 51-38, in the congressional ballot in Quinnipiac's latest poll.

So. Much. WINNING.

Let me quote SNL:
"Democrats: "we haven't been this confident since the night before Trump won!" "

Governor-elect Gillespie thanks you for your support

[Devout Centrist]

Possibly....but long term Alabama is an inevitability...Wyoming less so. Virtually no young person looks at the GOP today and thinks I wanna be a part of that. It'll take the GOP a generation to build back from failing to recruit Millennials

Uh, walk on to a predominantly white college campus and see the undergrad business majors. They are blue blazer-wearing, classmate-raping, binge drinking, Pop that P-ing, RINO Tom-ing deplorables.

He's not wrong, folks

[Devout Centrist]

I question the Democrats' ability to keep enthusiasm high for another 11 months. I doubt it can remain at the levels immediately post Trump, especially if Mueller clears Trump and Congress passes infrastructure spending.

Oh you poor kid

[Devout Centrist]

Not looking too hot for the GOP right now on how many seats will they lose in the House:

What market is this?

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/79

85 or more is wildly optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your viewpoint).  I wonder if someone is manipulating that market.

It's been at 85 + since the market was established. I don't think 70+ is unrealistic at all given a combination of factors

Since this is referring to "turnover", does that include retirements?

Yes. Dunno why this is being hyped so much.

[Devout Centrist]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What do these two years have in common?

[Devout Centrist]

Here's a question: Does the wording of the generic ballot question create any systematic biases?  In the Quinnipiac question wording, it asks which party "would you want to see win control of the House of Representatives"?  That's different from asking which party you are going to vote for, since you might like your own member of Congress better than the national party he/she represents.  Does that actually matter to this question, that different pollsters are asking slightly different things?

It's a rather "generic" way to ask the question. It reminds me of the polls we saw in Alabama; voters said they preferred that the Republicans control the US Senate by a nine point margin. Yet Jones managed the win the election. I think it largely depends on the context.

[Devout Centrist]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

You are the single worst psephologist on this site.

[Devout Centrist]

*Democrat wins Alabama Senate Race, elections show huge shift towards Democrats, Substantial lead in every generic ballot, Trump 15 points underwater*

"Meh, we're still a ways out"

*Morning Consult: D+3*

"Well time to go shoot myself"

[Devout Centrist]

Lord forbid this happens in 2020. We'll have mass suicides.

[Devout Centrist]

This is amounting to spam. Surely deleting some posts is necessary at this point.

[Devout Centrist]

Devin Nunes won by a bigger margin than Steve King in 2016. It's gonna take a lot of work to even come close to ousting him.

[Devout Centrist]

Devin Nunes won by a bigger margin than Steve King in 2016. It's gonna take a lot of work to even come close to ousting him.

Counterpoint: Devin Nunes was a relatively anonymous congressman in 2016.

Counterpoint to your counterpoint: On a national level yes, but he’s very well known and liked in CA-22 for his tough stance on water restrictions and advocacy for farmers during the drought.

[Devout Centrist]

Can we stop using dumb beltway terms like coastal elites when trying to seriously discuss elections?

THOse terms are accurate.

No, it isn't. It doesn't represent anything meaningful