A key difference is that Illinois is Safe D, while Maine is Tilt D at best. Also, Rauner's state isn't 95% White. The McCaskill comparison is actually pretty good: Barring an implosion of the Republican (in MO) or Democratic (in IL) candidate, both of them will probably go down in flames (though McCaskill even more than Rauner). The only thing that could help Rauner is that gubernatorial races are less partisan, but his approval ratings aren't that great either.
I agree. Reelection for governors in states that are strongly against their party either end up as landslides in their favor or dramatic losses.
For example, Schwarzenegger vs Angelides or O'Malley vs. Ehrlich.
