States most likely to flip to the Republicans?

[Kevin]

Which states are most likely to flip to the Republicans should a generic mainstream challenger like Romney or Perry be nominated in 2012?

I think the following are most likely to flip:

Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, and Pennsylvania

I very much believe that Indiana and North Carolina will definitely switch to the Republicans in 2012, given how strongly they voted Republican in elections prior to 2008, how 2008 was a Democratic landslide in a very good year for the party, and how close the margins in those states were for Obama. Combined with other state and local factors like a unpopular Democratic Governor in NC and a popular outgoing Republican Governor in IN combined with a lack of strong Democratic opposition in that state.

Florida for some of the reasons mentioned above and Obama's record so far is the next most likely state to go Republican after the first two. Virginia I also think has a high probilty for much of the same reasons. As well as the fact that I live here(in NOVA) and I can tell you many folks who voted for Obama and the Democrats in 2008 are very disappointed in him. Also, since 2008 there has been a strong electoral swing against the Democrats(2009 and 2010).

Polling and results over the past two years of the Democrats vs. Republicans in New Hampshire has me hopeful. Especially given the strong swing to the GOP in 2010. Same case in Ohio, but that is somewhat offset by the fact that the state Republicans aren't too popular at the moment.

IA and PA look promising given Obama's mediocre approvals in those states and the results for the Democrats in 2010 midterms. However, given the nature of these states where the Republicans put alot of effort into them only to lose them in the end, I'm not getting my hopes up.

Any opinions?




  

 

[Kevin]

Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

Pretty good guesses, although I doubt your native PA switches back.  I actually forgot that McCain did very well in western PA, yet still lost by 10 pts.  Unless the GOP nominee can break 25% in Philly, forget about it.

I could see someone like Romney, Huntsman, or even Perry doing well in many of the counties of the Philly suburbs.

[Kevin]

Rated from most likely to least likely in each section

Indiana = definite flip

North Carolina = likely flip
Ohio = likely flip
Virginia = possible flip
Florida = possible flip
New Hampshire = possible flip
Iowa = possible flip

Pennsylvania = unlikely flip

What makes you classify Ohio as a likely flip? And I'd classify PA as possible also since I chose the states most likely to change parties. Hence why other states like MI, WI, etc aren't mentioned at the moment.

[Kevin]

a generic mainstream challenger like Romney or Perry

Wait, what?

Well mainstream compared to the rest of the field.

[Kevin]

OH is distinctly more GOP than PA, and has been since rocks cooled. And Ohio has more of West Virginia in it (as it were), than PA does (including a lot of mountain Pubbies from Kentucky that live in the Cincinnati area, the one metro area where Jews tend to, or did, vote Pubbie).  And OH does not have large swaths of suburban areas appending a big liberal city trending Dem.  PA has the Philly suburbs. 

Which is funny, since the Philly Burbs used to be one of the big/essential building blocks to a Republican's vote in the commonwealth up until about 1988-1992.

The Republicans have a fair shot of at least capturing a couple of the suburban counties...its not a more likely than not situation...but entirely feasible that the Reps could recapture Chester Co, and possibly Bucks County.  Those two alone are unlikely to give them the commonwealth...unless they're also indicative of a resurgence in the rest of the burbs (and the trend out west has held up).

Bucks is far more republican friendly than either Montco or Delaware county, the latter being one of the traditional "former" homes of Republicanism in PA. 

I mean looking at the  2008 election results in Eastern Pennsylvania, I think it's entirely possible for the Republicans to also flip Northhampton, Leigh, Monroe, and Luzerne counties as someone like Romney or Huntsman would appeal there. However, in terms of SW PA I'm worried some counties there could flip back to Obama, but the anointed one's reputation amongst white working class voters now is even worse then it was in 2008.