Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

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E-Day vote has been counted in Riverside County, another 325k VBM + 10k provisional ballots left to count. Will Rollins is currently up 56.2 - 43.8 against Ken Calvert in CA-41.

I know Calvert will (likely) end up pulling ahead, but I can't recall a time when Calvert was trailing this badly after 3 AM PST. Regardless if Calvert (and pundits) were caught sleeping on this race, I absolutely can't see him running again in 2024.

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That really sucks, this might go to recount territory. Seriously though these west coast states are awful at counting ballots and also reporting accurate remaining ballots

1. Colorado is ~500 miles & a state or 2 away from the nearest west coast state

2. It's not a true election results thread until we get multiple folks complaining about the counting in CA + other western states the day after E-Day

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Honestly if Dems lose CO-03, it’ll significantly reduce their chances of winning the house as after that they need to hope for a surprise in another seat

That this post was written 20 hours after polls closed in Colorado should tell you all you need to know about how high that GOP wave was

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The whiplash i get from this forum... my god.

Yeah, election night/week/month was much more enjoyable when I avoided this forum and any news sites until after midnight.

Almost on cue, my headaches have returned while browsing here during the CO-3/AZ/NV vote dumps

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Personally, CA-41 is my CO-3. I'll be way more disappointed if Calvert ends up squeaking by

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Also win or lose, rmbr that both the primary and mail numbers were pretty strong for Dems in CA-41, especially compared to other nearby districts. If it does flip, that may have sort of been an early indicator. IIRC, the mail vote was about D+8 by regristation in the end so if all the eday vote is truly in, Calvert is in big trouble

Reminds me of 2016 when the primary showed Issa in more trouble than we thought. Although the CA-41 didn't get nearly as much of a spotlight compared to that race or the other competitive SoCal seats this cycle.

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Is there any kind of schedule for updates on the competitive races today?

Riverside County (CA-41) should be doing another vote dump around 6 PM PST

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Democrats path for the House majority just became much more harder without CO-03. But Democratic majority in the House is still a possibility. I see this new path without CO-03 through CA-13, CA-22, CA-41, OR-05, WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-27/CA-45

Again, that we're talking about the Democrats path for House majority going through CO-03 nearly 48 hours after Election Day is a victory in itself.

No one should sell that short.

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A lot of whiplash in the last 15 minutes & 1-2 pages over that OR-5 vote dump

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Those exits indicating Kelly +5 and a small Hobbs win are looking better and better...

Yeah...they are...

Indeed...

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CA-41 Update: 4,000 vote dump which broke 60 - 40 for Calvert. Still around 230-240k votes left to count in Riverside County.

Calvert  (GOP)     59,915    50.5% (+ 0.3)
Rollins   (Dem)     58,630    49.5% (- 0.3)

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CA-41 Update: 4,000 vote dump which broke 60 - 40 for Calvert. Still around 240k votes left to count in Riverside County.

Calvert  (GOP)     59,915    50.5% (+ 0.3)
Rollins   (Dem)     58,630    49.5% (- 0.3)

Do we know from where? Odd that we suddenly got a huge Dem dump (lol) earlier than another pro-GOP dump.

Not really. Riverside County doesn't provide any visualization or breakdowns of the counted/remaining votes until they've been certified.

Best bet would be to extrapolate current turnout in local/district races.

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Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

I don't know, but all the butthurt today makes me feel like the only one ecstatic that Dems have gotten as close as they have in the House.

Folks came into Tuesday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+30 and we're going through Friday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+5.

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Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

I don't know, but it feels like I'm the only one ecstatic that Dems have gotten as close as they have in the House.

Folks came into Tuesday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+30 and we're coming into Friday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+5

Yeah, because we're already smelling to maintain the majority and Republicans in shambles tastes so great.

At this point, I'd be very content with a 218-217 GOP majority. Nothings getting done anyway at that close a main margin regardless of party control. Might as well give it to them so they can eat all the chaos and blame they want for 2 years.

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Ugh, I feel like calling elections on Saturday will be the new norm...

You'll get used to it.

Signed,
A California voter

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217D-216R-2 Tossups:

https://twitter.com/galenmetzger1/status/1591198903910961155

LA Times already called CA-40 for Kim

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CCM down less than 1,000 with over 25k left in Clark.

RIP "CCM will lose because of Nye County votes"

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https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1591242184128622597?cxt=HHwWisDTib6VnZUsAAAA
CA-41 Update: 10,000 votes added, Calvert won the batch by around 51.5 - 48.5 (Yesterday's batch of 4,000 votes broke 60 - 40 for Calvert).

Calvert  (GOP)     65,105    50.6% (+ 0.1)
Rollins   (Dem)     63,507    49.4% (- 0.1)

Calvert added 313 votes to his lead, increasing his lead to 1598.

Still over 200k votes to count in Riverside County. Next update is tomorrow, 6 PM PST.

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What’s the case for Calvert losing? Late returns in the primary boosted him and he’s winning the latest batches. His district was won by Trump; I don’t think a SoCal incumbent in a Trump seat would go down in this environment. It’s not like Garcia in a Biden +13 seat.

I think people fail to realize how different California counties can be with counting. They all follow different schedules in which ballots are counted in which order. Riverside tends to get more Republican. Raul Ruiz is also running ahead of the final primary, so I’m inclined to think Calvert wins by a few points in the end.

I'm from Riverside County so I'm familiar with the counting. In 2016/2018, the post-EDay batches got more Democrat while the opposite happened in 2020. A lot is based off uncertainty on whether the count is done more 2016/2018 or 2020. Another is just how little information Riverside County provides regarding the drops. We just don't know how many votes are left in CA-41 until the very end and/or local news started calling it (Nor what they are).

The batch tonight was much closer and larger than yesterday and there's still a ton of vote left, so I think its still too early to make presumptions. However, if Rollins doesn't win a batch soon, I'll be ready to count him out.

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Yeah there’s a lot of hopium going around - if the trajectory for a photo finish (218-217) was there the media would be all over it but they’ve consistently been saying GOP is very likely to win, NBC saying 220

You just can’t take an W can you? What’s up with that? Just enjoy it man.

They're jaded and doomers.

They spent all of the last 2 years mocking Dems about having any hope about the House/Senate and to face the inevitable wipeout.

3 days after Election Day & a Senate pickup later, they're mocking Dems about potentially having a 1 seat majority at best.

What sad, fragile wastes of minds.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1591263707048181761

Everyone was too distracted by LA and OC to notice or care. Par for the IE, sadly

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All we have to do now is hold Georgia...

Isn't CCM now favored though?

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What are Rollins’s chances?

Honestly, no clue at this point. Still around 200k ballots to count in Riverside County (+ whatever postmarked ballots arrive tomorrow), but we don't know how many left in CA-41.

Calvert won today's update, but it was a bigger batch & much narrower than yesterday. If they don't start leaning Rollins by Monday or Tuesday, I think he's in big trouble

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Speaking as someone from Riverside County; After over a year of endless spotlight & discussion regarding the OC/LA districts, I'll be very amused if CA-41 ends up being the tiebreaker which decides control of the House

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I gotta say, the GOP is already doing such a good job of pivoting to a more nationally acceptable place for 2024.

I give it until January before they crack and fall back on old/current habits