If the 2021 results are now largely seen as a rejection of D policy on COVID and education, what has changed?
- Candidate quality - GOP nominating people who can’t match Youngkin
- Roe / Trump buffoonery - GOP excesses outweigh D overreach (and implicitly some Youngkin voters would now have chosen Terry?)
- Turnout - the Dems now have a stronger grip on more reliable voters
- Turnout with an asterisk - the Ds may win specials, but Reps will still show in Nov
I think 2021 suggests it’s a mix of 1,2, and 4.
The turnout gap between college educated voters and the working class is even higher in midterms. The MAGA cult doesn't turn out without Trump on the ballot, but college educated voters will.
The long term trend of college educated voters swinging to the Democrats helps more in midterms, then in general elections.
The House is moving toward Dems but the Senate will not result in many expansion opportunities. I would say the BEST case scenario for Ds is narrow House control such as now and holding NH GA AZ NV, picking up PA WI NC. Even these special elections swinging 6% won't swing OH and we know what FL is.
This time last year, you would've been laughed at for even considering a scenario where Dems keep the house & had a chance of picking up Senate seats in PA WI NC
