wait, is CA going to SWING R?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Remember when this forum was worried about California continuing to swing left because it would skew the gap further between the national popular vote & national electoral vote?

Now we're supposed to be stunned that California might be swinging to the right because....I don't know? A sign of things to come with Dems future appeal to Hispanics/Asians?

California can do no right in Atlas' eyes.


Meanwhile, this is the 3rd election that a candidate got 70% in LA County, the 4th election a Dem ever won OC, the biggest win for a Dem in San Diego County since 1936, the best Dem performance in Kern County since 1976 & one of the best showings the Dem candidate ever had in the Inland Empire (Speaking purely about presidential elections for these)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm skeptical about the CA swing because the vast majority of the state did swing towards Biden. It looks like the right-ward swing is rooted in LA County or San Bernardino County which would require some precinct exploration which the LATimes has posted if anyone is curious about. Most of Northern California swung left, except San Francisco and Alameda... which might just be a reversion to the mean or statistical noise at such high percentages (although it would be interesting to see if there are localized swings in POC areas which both SF and Alameda have - in particular slightly more working class than the rest of the Bay Area)

Biden is currently getting the same margin in San Bernardino County that Hillary got (10.6%)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Not really. To reiterate what I said earlier...

- This is the 3rd election that a candidate got 70% in LA County
- The 4th election a Dem ever won OC (And he got a bigger percentage than Hillary)
- The 2nd biggest win for a Dem in San Diego County ever and the biggest win for a candidate since 1988
- The 3rd biggest win for a Dem in the Inland Empire (Behind 1964 & 1936)
- The narrowest margin in Kern County since 1976

And that's just in Southern California.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

It's ominous if California swings R (Minority appeal and/or maxed votes) and it's ominous if California swings D (National PV/EV gap).

California does wrong no matter what

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Wondering when California will give municipality breakdown and do they have any of those for any county yet?

You're gonna have to wait a month when Sacramento certifies the results for the complete statement of votes.

Orange County currently has breakdowns though

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Not really. To reiterate what I said earlier...

- This is the 3rd election that a candidate got 70% in LA County
- The 4th election a Dem ever won OC (And he got a bigger percentage than Hillary)
- The 2nd biggest win for a Dem in San Diego County ever and the biggest win for a candidate since 1988
- The 3rd biggest win for a Dem in the Inland Empire (Behind 1964 & 1936)
- The narrowest margin in Kern County since 1976

And that's just in Southern California.

Among the next set of counties to the north is Inyo, which is set to go Dem for the first time since 1964.

I'm aware. I could've also mentioned Lake County snapping back to the left after a narrower-than-usual margin in 2016