2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

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https://www.ocregister.com/2016/11/01/early-voting-explodes-in-southern-california-with-most-casting-ballots-ahead-of-election-day/

This is one of the few articles I can find with any party turnout stats from California 4 years ago. Only two counties, but they're big and they're something. This article was from November 1


Orange County      2020     ~2016
Dem                     45%      32%
GOP                     26%       40%
Other                   29%       28%


Riverside County    2020     ~2016
Dem                     49%      40%
GOP                      31%      42%
Other                    20%      18%

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https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1320745508424556546?s=20
https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1320838336915902464?s=20
https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1320867400179396608?s=20

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Texas Early voting party breakdown according to MSNBC:

Democrats: 37%
Republicans: 54%
Other: 10%

TargetSmart crap

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Here is turnout data actually worth a damn in Texas, Derek Ryan's turnout report. He is a GOP consultant but he's reliable here.

https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/c88322b1-9dfd-41f6-98d4-82de00211413/Statewide_Report_Day_13.pdf

Last Voted in R Primary - 30.9%
Last Voted in D Primary - 27.2%
GE history/no primary history - 27.7%
No voting history - 14.3%

That's much more interesting. Do we know what the breakdown was in 2018?

2018
Last Voted in R Primary - 29.6%
Last Voted in D Primary - 26.6%
GE history/no primary history - 32.2%
No voting history - 11.6%


2016
Last Voted in R Primary - 31.1%
Last Voted in D Primary - 21.2%
GE history/no primary history - 31.1%
No voting history - 16.6%

2020-2018
Last Voted in R Primary   +1.3
Last Voted in D Primary   +0.6
GE history/no primary history   -4.5  
No voting history   +2.7

2020-2016
Last Voted in R Primary   -0.2
Last Voted in D Primary  +6.0
GE history/no primary history   -3.4
No voting history   -2.3

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https://twitter.com/debliss/status/1320857579275329538

Could be bad reporting from the Texas Elections site, which I've been noticing quite a bit when doing my daily updates.

3 days ago, when I was tracking Texas turnout, they had Medina & Scurry counties at 72% and 91% turnout respectively. Turns out that either the state or the counties were double-counting voters.

When they fixed the problem that day, DeWitt saw their turnout double and vault to the highest turnout in the state. Panola wasn't even in the top 10 at that point. It seems their turnout also doubled since I made the list

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Day 14 of early voting in Texas (October 26)

(In-person + VBM)  (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)

GREATER HOUSTON
HARRIS COUNTY               1,149,047    46.3%    2016:   87.6%    2018:   95.1%
FORT BEND COUNTY            262,281    54.4%   2016: 100.1%   2018: 102.7%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY       189,261    51.1%    2016:   92.5%    2018:   99.6%
GALVESTON COUNTY           116,275    50.9%    2016:   94.6%   2018: 102.3%

DALLAS-FORT WORTH
DALLAS COUNTY                  632,961    45.3%    2016:    83.4%   2018:     87.0%
TARRANT COUNTY               572,833    47.2%     2016:   85.7%   2018:     91.2%
COLLIN COUNTY                  372,403    57.4%    2016: 103.0%   2018: 104.6%
DENTON COUNTY                314,069     55.6%    2016:  105.2%   2018:   106.2%

SAN ANTONIO
BEXAR COUNTY                   542,660     45.6%    2016:   92.0%   2018:    98.7%

GREATER AUSTIN
TRAVIS COUNTY                  448,419     52.4%    2016:   95.7%   2018:   92.6%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY        215,460     57.2%    2016: 106.1%   2018: 103.5%
HAYS COUNTY                       78,953     51.7%    2016: 109.4%   2018:    99.0%

EL PASO
EL PASO COUNTY                178,004     36.4%    2016:   83.2%    2018:   87.4%

SOUTH TEXAS
HIDALGO COUNTY              147,866     37.8%    2016:   85.3%    2018:   97.4%
NUECES COUNTY                  90,253     42.6%    2016:   86.5%    2018:   96.0%
CAMERON COUNTY               76,595     35.0%    2016:   83.2%    2018:   98.3%

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I'm noticing a correlation lately between the Georgia early vote numbers, the Biden campaigns late push into Georgia, the Georgia polls showing slight movement to Biden & MillenialModerates increasingly far-reaching rantings and ravings about Georgia.


It's probably nothing though

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yesterday's total + 21,000 = 89.35% of 2016 turnout.

They're going to reach 90% later today (if they haven't already) and 100% before early voting ends Friday. (If Harris County has at least yesterday's turnout of 58,602 each day through Friday, they'll clear 1.4 million votes!)

(Tweet snip)

Update!

They already reached yesterday's benchmark with 2 1/2 hours left in early voting (and not including mail ballots returned today):

(Tweet snip)
yesterday's total + 58,000 = 92.17% of all 2016 votes.

With just in-person votes, they're at 99.9% of 2018's vote totals.

And we still got 24-hour voting later this week!

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Travis County passes 2016 turnout!

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct27.pdf

They will pass the 2018 record tomorrow

#believethoseTRENDS

Travis & Williamson Counties are now within 10% of 2016's total turnout percentage.

Greater Austin coming in strong this year!

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Day 15 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 27) (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


GREATER HOUSTON
HARRIS COUNTY               1206519    48.6%    2016:   92.0%    2018:  99.9%
FORT BEND COUNTY           277124    57.5%    2016: 105.8%   2018: 108.5%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY      200542    54.2%    2016:   98.0%  2018: 105.5%
GALVESTON COUNTY          119796    52.4%    2016:   97.5%   2018: 105.4%

DALLAS-FORT WORTH
DALLAS COUNTY                 665065    47.6%     2016:  87.6%   2018:   91.4%
TARRANT COUNTY              606757    50.0%     2016:  90.8%   2018:   96.6%
COLLIN COUNTY                 388175    59.8%    2016: 107.4%   2018: 109.1%
DENTON COUNTY                327585    58.0%    2016: 109.7%   2018: 110.7%

SAN ANTONIO
BEXAR COUNTY                   570145    47.9%    2016:  96.7%  2018:  103.7%

GREATER AUSTIN
TRAVIS COUNTY                  470535   55.0%  2016: 100.4%   2018:    97.2%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY        224772   59.6%   2016: 110.7%   2018:   108.0%
HAYS COUNTY                       82538   54.0%   2016: 114.4%   2018:  103.5%

EL PASO
EL PASO COUNTY                183813    37.6%  2016:   85.9%    2018:    90.3%

SOUTH TEXAS
HIDALGO COUNTY              155727    39.8%   2016:  89.8%    2018: 102.6%
NUECES COUNTY                  94768    44.8%   2016:  90.8%    2018: 100.8%
CAMERON COUNTY              80368     36.7%   2016:  87.3%    2018: 103.2%

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https://twitter.com/TravisCoClerk/status/1321558271468228616?s=20
As of an hour ago, Travis County reached 100% of their 2018 vote totals.

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Yeah I was kind of confused about that. Does that mean someone messed up the math when they posted their 486k tweet a few hours ago? Or are they not counting mail ballots in this latest tweet? Either way, Travis will easily set a new record today.

I'd assume they're counting mail ballots as well. They've had two 20k vote days in a row with yesterday being bigger than Monday. Wouldn't surprise me if there's a steady increase throughout this week

EDIT: I had some confusion because I've been basing turnout off 2016 presidential votes. I've been going off of 468 instead of 477k. Seems 9,000 voters just left the presidential race blank? I can't find total votes from the counties or state sites

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Not even a pandemic or the potential for national VBM shenanigans will prevent Californians from waiting until Election Day to return their ballots

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Not even a pandemic or the potential for national VBM shenanigans will prevent Californians from waiting until Election Day to return their ballots

Could Trump somehow sabotage mail-in ballots and win California? Say, they get lost.

Considering 22% of the returned ballots are GOP and Independents have returned more ballots than Republicans, I highly doubt it.

However, I am entertaining the thought that we'll get a reverse 2018 effect. Instead of late ballots being heavily Democrat, they'll be heavily Republican and cause narrowing in races like the OC House seats

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I know it's California, but I found these graphs interesting:

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1321125466137219073?s=20
https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1321125472776826882?s=20
https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1321128187368124416?s=20

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Nice! I was curious why Harris & Travis haven't posted todays updates yet.

Williamson County had 9,687 in-person votes today, an increase from yesterday & Monday. They're on the verge of eclipsing 2018's 62.4% total turnout percentage and, if current trends continue, matching 2016's turnout percentage by Friday night

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https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

The CA GOP better pray from now until Tuesday that there's a flatline in Democrat returns, GOP returns skyrocket & the Election Day vote is like 75% GOP.

Some of the competitive GOP seats in those districts:

25th:  AD-36, SD-21
39th:  AD-55, SD-29
45th:  AD-68, SD-37
48th:  AD-72, AD-73

A loss of 5 Assembly seats and 3 Senate seats, which is the exact losses they had in 2018. Republicans would be down to 8 Senate seats and 13 in the State Assembly if they all flipped.

To put that in perspective, Republicans won 20 Assembly races in 2018 (Since then, 1 Republican joined the Democrats and another became NPP).

And I'm just listing the competitive races as I know them. There wasn't much indication that Assemblywoman Baker, the lone Bay Area Republican, would end up losing a squeaker 2 years ago. I also didn't expect the then-Senate Minority Leader to go from a 31% in 2014 to a 3% nailbiter in 2018. All I know is that what's looking like a bad night for the CA GOP could end up being as big a bloodbath as 2018, perhaps moreso if that's possible.

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I found the 2018 early vote tracker for California - https://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/


Keep in mind, a lot of the early vote in 2018 was late ballots postmarked on Election Day (Hence the OC/CD-21 flips weeks after the election).

With that being said, because I'm in election mode and lacking sleep already, I got a spreadsheet going.


Here's the total number of ballots returned + share of total votes





And the return rate by party

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Day 16 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 28) (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


GREATER HOUSTON
HARRIS COUNTY              1,270,281    51.2%     2016:   96.8%   2018: 105.2%
FORT BEND COUNTY           291,984    60.5%     2016: 111.4%    2018: 114.3%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY      211,312    57.1%   2016:  103.3%   2018: 111.2%
GALVESTON COUNTY          123,821    54.2%   2016:  100.8%   2018: 109.0%

DALLAS-FORT WORTH
DALLAS COUNTY                 698,959    50.0%     2016:  92.1%    2018:   96.0%
TARRANT COUNTY              640,089    52.8%     2016:  95.8%  2018:  101.9%
COLLIN COUNTY                 404,458    62.4%    2016: 111.9%    2018: 113.6%
DENTON COUNTY                341,646    60.5%    2016: 114.4%    2018: 115.5%

SAN ANTONIO
BEXAR COUNTY                   603,173    50.7%   2016: 102.3%  2018: 109.8%

GREATER AUSTIN
TRAVIS COUNTY                  494,704   57.9%  2016: 103.6%  2018:  102.2%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY        235,348   62.4%   2016: 115.9%   2018:   113.0%
HAYS COUNTY                       86,637   56.7%   2016: 120.1%    2018:  108.6%

EL PASO
EL PASO COUNTY                192,648    39.4%  2016:   90.0%    2018:    94.6%

SOUTH TEXAS
HIDALGO COUNTY              163,399    41.8%   2016:  94.2%    2018: 107.7%
NUECES COUNTY                  98,998    46.8%   2016:  94.8%    2018: 105.2%
CAMERON COUNTY              84,140     38.4%   2016:  91.4%    2018: 108.0%


I should clarify that turnout numbers are based on the 2016 Presidential vote totals & 2018 Senate vote totals. I understand that not everyone who voted casted a ballot for the Presidential race, same with Senate. I can't find total turnout by county based on who sent in a ballot. Just wanted to point that out after some confusion I had regarding Harris' reporting

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2 hours before polls close in Texas & Williamson County is already within 400 votes of yesterday's totals, which were the highest of the week.

Might be hard to believe given how turnout looks already, but I have a feeling tomorrow is gonna be a big voting day in Texas

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2 hours before polls close in Texas & Williamson County is already within 400 votes of yesterday's totals, which were the highest of the week.

Might be hard to believe given how turnout looks already, but I have a feeling tomorrow is gonna be a big voting day in Texas

Tonight's the 24-hour Harris voting event, right?

Correct

I wonder if we'll get any turnout updates from Harris County tonight. I mean the vote/VBM reports, not tweets

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45 minutes before polls close and Williamson County, TX is at around 10,200 in-person votes. Another 260 votes and this will be their best voting day since Friday (Even before we get updated mail totals)

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Big spike in the last hour today in Williamson County! They finish the day with around 11,100 in-person votes, already the biggest voting day since Friday & likely to eclipse last Thursdays votes (11,784) when the mail ballot counts are updated

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This is basically the 2018 swing map lol
https://twitter.com/mattygaren/status/1321959302781935621?s=21

This map but only focused on counties that swung to Beto (Compared to the 2012 Senate race)





Of the counties listed with highest turnout compared to 2016, only Blanco & Medina didn't swing to Beto

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Amazing, how many more early vote days does Texas have?

I know you got your answer, but Harris County is also running 24-hour polling places until 7 PM tomorrow