2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

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Williamson County, TX finishing the day at just under 12,000 in-person votes.

That alone puts them at 95% of their 2016 total vote and around 93% of their 2018 total vote.

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Sharing this from another thread. Turnout is based on yesterday's figures and statewide reporting:


Top 10 Texas counties by turnout
1.  DeWitt          62.7%
2.  Mason          49.9%
3.  Jeff Davis     49.0%
4.  Kendall         48.3%
5.  Collin           48.1%
6.  Blanco          48.0%
7.  Williamson    47.6%
8.  Bandera        47.4%
9.  Denton         46.9%
10. Kerr             46.0%

Bottom 10 Texas counties by turnout
255. Zapata       15.2%
254. Castro        15.9%
253. Hudspeth    16.1%
252. Willacy       17.0%
251. Falls           17.3%
250. Brooks       17.4%
249. Maverick     17.4%
248. Parmer       18.9%
247. Lynn           19.0%
246. Culberson    19.7%

Not sure about that DeWitt number, but we'll see if it's corrected by tomorrow

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Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

Seems like we've been on schedule for 2 nights in a row

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I interrupt the Florida bedwetting to bring you an update on Texas' early vote numbers:


Day 11 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 23)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:     678,155     33.9%
2016:     869,392     38.9%  (73.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     755,877     32.3%
2020:  1,020,885     41.2%  (77.8% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:     386,654     32.8%
2016:     485,081     37.7%  (68.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     468,715     35.1%
2020:     563,148     40.3%  (74.2% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     364,509     37.4%
2016:     457,966     42.5%  (75.0% of 2012 turnout) 
2018:     413,372     36.8%
2020:     482,640     39.8%  (72.2% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:     324,157     35.3%
2016:     424,135     40.6%  (82.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     370,277     33.7%
2020:     466,498     39.2%  (79.1% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:     201,373     31.8%
2016:     334,132     46.1%  (86.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     326,927     42.1%
2020:     399,954     46.8%  (85.3% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     190,790     41.6%
2016:     270,853     50.4%  (89.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     254,362     43.9%
2020:     333,514     51.4%  (92.3% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     148,107     38.3%
2016:     214,546     46.2%  (88.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     203,582     40.9%
2020:     283,253     50.1%  (94.9% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:       82,035     21.4%
2016:     133,304     31.1%  (77.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     123,951     27.2%
2020:     158,017     32.4%  (73.8% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     142,101     41.8%
2016:     189,548     46.9%  (86.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     175,336     40.6%
2020:     225,171     46.7%  (85.9% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:       88,890     29.2%
2016:     123,851     36.6%  (89.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     100,773     27.9%
2020:     130,747     33.4%  (75.4% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:       90,980     35.9%
2016:     144,966     48.3%  (88.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     145,475     43.6%
2020:     193,856     51.4%  (95.5% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     108,377     40.9%
2016:     140,912     45.2%  (81.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     124,416     37.3%
2020:     161,244     43.6%  (78.8% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:       74,037     39.9%
2016:       91,675     44.0%  (83.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:       80,519     37.9%
2020:     102,655     44.9%  (83.5% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:       36,878     20.4%
2016:       55,823     28.2%  (72.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:       48,341     23.4%
2020:       68,504     31.3%  (74.4% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     53,194     27.7%
2016:     66,442     33.3%  (69.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     59,898     29.2%
2020:     80,454     38.0%  (77.1% of 2016 turnout)

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Of those listed, the following Texas counties have eclipsed their 2016 early vote totals (With another 6 days of early voting left):

Harris          1,020,885   (977,279)
Dallas             563,148   (549,643)
Travis             399,954   (377,685)
Collin             333,514   (301,939)
Denton          283,253   (239,954)
Fort Bend       225,171   (213,567)
Williamson     193,856   (162,558)
El Paso          158,017   (150,446)
Montgomery  161,244   (156,818)
Galveston      102,655   (101,488)
Nueces            80,454    (74,844)
Cameron         68,504    (64,239)

And these are the counties that will likely beat it this weekend:

Tarrant         482,640   (515,230)
Bexar           466,948   (471,908)
Hidalgo        130,747   (139,833)

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The following Texas counties have eclipsed their 2016 early vote totals

Harris          1,020,885   (977,279)
Dallas             563,148   (549,643)
Travis             399,954   (377,685)
Collin             333,514   (301,939)
Denton          283,253   (239,954)
Fort Bend       225,171   (213,567)
Williamson     193,856   (162,558)
El Paso          158,017   (150,446)
Montgomery  151,244   (156,818)
Galveston      102,655   (101,488)
Nueces            80,454    (74,844)
Cameron         68,504    (64,239)

And these are the counties that will likely beat it this weekend:

Tarrant         482,640   (515,230)
Bexar           466,948   (471,908)
Hidalgo        130,747   (139,833)

Montgomery is still under 2016, unless there’s a typo somewhere?

You're right! There is a typo. I meant to put 161k instead of 151k

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Can you add Hays county to this list?

Sure! I can only find daily updates from 2018 though:


HAYS COUNTY (Austin suburbs) (Day 11)
2018:    54,942     40.9%  (76.1% of 2016 turnout)
2020:    70,386     46.1%  (97.5% of 2016 turnout)

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So this may be a stupid question, but I'd love if someone more familiar with election mechanics could answer... With millions of people returning their ballots well before election day, is there any actual reason to believe we won't get results on election night? Even places that cannot count until the day of, I mean that's when we normally count them anyway, right? I may be missing something about the actual ways this is run, but on paper the fears seem kind of unsubstantiated to me.

Some states are allowed to count ballots hours or days prior to polls closing

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

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I really don't get why folks are so narrowly fixated on the Dem vs GOP ballots as if we're supposed to ignore the 1/3 of independents who are also voting.

Not to mention, it's been increasingly apparent over the years that newer & younger voters are choosing to register as Independent/Non-affiliated rather than Democrat.

And regardless, Biden is killing it with Independents & Johnson/Stein voters.

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Williamson County, TX finishes the day with 6,691 in-person voters. That's slightly more than the 6,386 votes last Sunday, their weakest day so far.

With just today's in-person votes, that puts them at 99% of 2016's total votes & 96% of 2018's total votes

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Not encouraging
(Florida tweets)

lol right on schedule

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not encouraging
(Florida tweets)

lol right on schedule

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

The guy has been on top of this Florida stuff as good as anyone so if he is saying it’s panic time then it’s not a good sign

All I'm saying that we're right on schedule for our daily Florida freakout.

It's almost not funny at this point. Almost

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I'm gonna laugh so hard if Biden flips Texas & Georgia while Trump wins Florida

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https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

And?

And it’s not a good sign that unless Dems right this ship they’ll have a smaller EV % gap then they did in 2016

Are you just gonna ignore the 20.7% of NPA voters that don't seem to be breaking to Trump this year?

It really looks like you're worrying for worry's sake

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https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

And?

And it’s not a good sign that unless Dems right this ship they’ll have a smaller EV % gap then they did in 2016

Are you just gonna ignore the 20.7% of NPA voters that don't seem to be overwhelmingly breaking to Trump this year?

No. It’s the one thing keeping me slightly optimistic but I don’t wanna just assume that they just break heavy and then get burned

Either way, you're putting all your eggs into the "Dem ballots vs GOP ballots" basket as if those are the only votes that matter

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@Monstro, when pulling the EV numbers,  I’d recommend verifying (unless you already are) the state count with each county. Webb’s ElPaso’s and Harris are undercounted on the state’s website by several thousand each.

I noticed. Really annoying and its why I'm not tracking statewide turnout.

Some counties I pull from the state count (Collin, Bexar mail, Williamson mail) but everything else is straight from the county sites

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I'm gonna begin the Texas update with a disclaimer that this was the final day of early voting for 2012/2016/2018. Not only are we comparing a low-turnout Saturday to a high-turnout Friday, those years also had a big voting surge on those final days. Don't be surprised by big diversions in turnout comparisons, especially as early voting this year is extended another week to October 30.

From here on out, I think I'll just post this years numbers and how they compare percentage-wise to 2012/2016/2018 turnout.

Without further ado...


Day 12 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 24)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:    766,526     38.3%
2016:    977,279     43.7%  (82.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    855,711     36.6%
2020: 1,063,627     42.9%  (81.1% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:    443,907     37.7%
2016:    549,643     42.7%  (77.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    529,727     39.7%
2020:    586,814     42.0%  (77.3% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    418,878     43.0%
2016:    515,230     47.8%  (84.3% of 2012 turnout)  
2018:    465,817     41.5%
2020:    521,223     43.0%  (78.0% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:    370,653     40.4%
2016:    471,908     45.1%  (91.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    414,192     37.7%
2020:    495,864     41.7%  (84.1% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    236,743     37.4%
2016:    377,685     52.1%  (97.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    368,048     47.4%
2020:    415,915     48.6%  (88.7% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    222,015     48.4%
2016:    301,939     56.2%  (99.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    286,393     49.4%
2020:    348,364     53.7%  (96.4% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    169,899     43.9%
2016:    239,954     51.6%  (98.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    228,650     46.0%
2020:    294,024     52.0%  (98.5% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:      96,189     25.1%
2016:    150,446     35.1%  (87.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    139,105     30.5%
2020:    164,595     33.7%  (76.9% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    162,955     48.0%
2016:    213,567     52.9%  (97.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    199,267     46.1%
2020:    240,170     49.8%  (91.6% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    103,270     33.9%
2016:    139,833     41.3%  (100.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    114,560     31.7%
2020:    137,955     35.3%   (79.5% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:    105,508     41.6%
2016:    162,558     54.2%  (99.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    162,574     48.8%
2020:    200,699     53.3%  (98.8% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    122,363     46.2%
2016:    156,818     50.3%  (90.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    138,125     41.4%
2020:    172,195     46.5%  (84.2% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:      84,170     45.4%
2016:    101,488     48.7%  (92.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:      90,166     42.4%
2020:    108,982     47.7%  (88.7% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:      43,579     24.2%
2016:      64,239     32.5%  (83.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:      54,576     26.4%
2020:      71,397     32.6%  (77.5% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:      60,842     31.7%
2016:      74,844     37.5%  (77.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:      67,630     33.0%
2020:      85,267     40.3%  (81.7% of 2016 turnout)

HAYS COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2018:      62,583     46.6%
2020:      73,277     47.9%  (101.5% of 2016 turnout)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Williamson County, TX at around 3000 in-person votes so far. That puts them at 100% of 2016 and 98% of 2018

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Trump better hope not even one supporter gets lazy/nervous and sits out Election Day

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(snip)

Still a lot of ballots out but Dems have a healthy lead in the CA-08 open seat, a district that was a Republican lockout in 2018 despite having a lower PVI than CA-50. I don't believe it's on any of the pundit radars at all.

They've got similar margins in Calvert's CA-42. I'm not expecting him to lose, but wouldn't be surprised if he gets a close scare like in 2008:

Ballots returned
Dem:   38,660   (26% of Dem ballots returned)
GOP:    32,184   (18% of GOP ballots returned)
NPP:    19,696   (16% of NPP ballots returned)

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Williamson County, TX at 6,320 in-person votes so far. That puts them around 104% of the 2016 vote totals and 101% of the 2018 totals

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I was gonna hold off on the TX early vote updates today, since there didn't seem to be much movement. But I don't think it'd hurt.

I'll also be changing up the format as we get into the extra week of early voting. I'll simply be printing the updated totals & turnout, plus how the vote totals compare to the 2016 & 2018 total vote counts.

Day 13 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 25)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)                          1,090,445    44.0%    2016:  83.1%   2018:  90.3%
FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)         245,916    51.0%    2016:  93.8%   2018:  96.3%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)    177,138    47.9%    2016:  86.6%   2018:  93.2%
GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)        111,053    48.6%    2016:  90.4%   2018:  97.7%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)                                601,332    43.0%    2016:  79.2%   2018:  82.6%
TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)                     538,174    44.4%     2016:  80.5%   2018:  85.7%
COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)                  355,710    54.8%     2016:  98.4%   2018:  99.9%
DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)                 299,881    53.1%   2016:  100.4%  2018: 101.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)                        510,894    43.0%    2016:   86.6%   2018:  93.0%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)                               427,071    49.9%     2016:  91.1%   2018:  88.2%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)       205,234    54.5%    2016: 101.1%    2018:  98.6%
HAYS COUNTY (Austin suburbs)                      74,808    49.0%    2016: 103.7%    2018:  93.8%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)                            168,447    34.5%     2016:  78.7%    2018:  82.7%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)         140,499    35.9%     2016:  81.0%    2018:  92.6%
NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)                   85,674    40.5%     2016:  82.1%    2018:  91.1%
CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)          72,846    33.3%     2016:  79.1%    2018:  93.5

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

(Tweet about most likely voters already casting a ballot)

The only way that national margin tightens to 6-7% will be from a combination of polling errors that only benefit Trump + a sh*tload of 'Shy Trump Voters' + Republicans truly "coming home" in the next week + insane Election Day turnout for the GOP

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Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

Based on exit polls, Trump & Sinema won independents by 3%. Trump & McSally also both got 47%

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Does anyone know what the Republican lead was in Maricopa County in 2018 by election day? Obviously it wasn't enough.

This was from the morning prior to Election Day

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1059524470979739648?s=20
GOP      413,398   42.3%
Dem     319,709   32.7%
NPP      236,538   24.2%